SARATOGA 8/11 race 7

[buffaloxp]

handicapping SAR 8/11 race 7, what line you use and what you pick,

horse 5 and 6 is MTO enter
raymond

[buffaloxp]

horse 1-5

[buffaloxp]

horse 6-10

[buffaloxp]

horse 11-12

[buffaloxp]

can some one help explain this race condition,

thank you
raymond

[Mitch44]

1 L 2
2 L 1 Unk. Factor, only 2 routes
3 L 5 Toss, gets much faster pace in here & prefers slower pace and longer
4 L 1
5 MTO Toss
6 MTO Toss
7 L 3
8 L 2
9 L 1
10 L 1 UNK. Factor, dirt horses tries turf for 1st time.
11 L 1 UNK. Factor, only 2 turf & only 1 route
12 L 1 Unk. Factor, only 2 at dis. & surface

Typical 3 yr. old race with multiple UNKNOWN FACTORS and not a prime betting opportunity.

Top contenders, no order: 2-4-10-11-12

Final picks after scratches.

Mitch44

[dlivery]

1 0

2 0

3 Last Line

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 Last Line

10 0

11 0

12 0

Selections: 3 & 9

[Hanger]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

1 L 2
2 L 1 Unk. Factor, only 2 routes
3 L 5 Toss, gets much faster pace in here & prefers slower pace and longer
4 L 1
5 MTO Toss
6 MTO Toss
7 L 3
8 L 2
9 L 1
10 L 1 UNK. Factor, dirt horses tries turf for 1st time.
11 L 1 UNK. Factor, only 2 turf & only 1 route
12 L 1 Unk. Factor, only 2 at dis. & surface

Typical 3 yr. old race with multiple UNKNOWN FACTORS and not a prime betting opportunity.

Top contenders, no order: 2-4-10-11-12

Final picks after scratches.

Mitch44

Interesting selection for the #1 with L2 - I would have thought recency and track/surface would take priority for most in line selection- can I ask what prompts that L2? Distance is a factor I see- but going with "capping" angles L1 is a "not typical of previous races" Just curious. Thanks.

[Mitch44]

Hanger;

I follow Sartin guidelines of best of the last 3 at a similar distance (within 1 Furlong) and similar surface. To determine the best I use the Perceptor rating which is to the far right of the horses chart.

Line #2 is within 1/2 F of today's distance, is on the turf which is the same surface for the race today (actually tomorrow) and the best Perceptor. I pay no attention to to number of days of line or class.
Mitch44

[Hanger]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Hanger;

I follow Sartin guidelines of best of the last 3 at a similar distance (within 1 Furlong) and similar surface. To determine the best I use the Perceptor rating which is to the far right of the horses chart.

Line #2 is within 1/2 F of today's distance, is on the turf which is the same surface for the race today (actually tomorrow) and the best Perceptor.

Mitch44

That makes sense, and similar to what I expected with the Perceptor there. Best of last 3 is the key there, I usually forget that and focus more on the surface/track than I really should.
THank you Mitch