Bc this friday & saturday - Pace and Cap

omar · 10-31-2022, 02:47 AM

I will post my track profiles and race models for Keenland the day before each card. The problem is there's a 6 day lag between races. Heaven help us if track comes up sloppy or muddy. I will update each after Fridays races.
Like I said in an earlier post somewhere I utilize a non-strict interpretation of Docs work.
eg. Doc lived in California. Let's say he's alive today and he comes to NYC and visits the Cloisters in upper Manhattan. I ask him how did he get there and he says he took the 1 train. Well I come from Brooklyn and there's no 1 train. So I first have to figure out how to get to the 1 train.
Same thing with his methodology. I know where he's coming from and getting to, I'm just coming from a different location to get to where he's going to.
When making my track profile I used all age groups, all class groups with no regard for the sex of the horse. You'll see by the smooth progressions of %Med numbers that it doesn't matter, if it did the numbers would be all over the place. I'm not constructing a par times table.
The same for my race surface/distance models.
I never used RDSS but most of Docs designations are the same. So use them to your advantage. Wait for your price.
Omar

DanBoals · 10-31-2022, 04:47 PM

If I am not mistaken, Howard was born in Brooklyn.

The methodology was not designed for the best races in the world. It was designed to win day in and day out. You can beat the races, but not the race.

omar · 11-01-2022, 04:19 AM

I was busy most of the day so I apologize for not responding sooner but not for what I'm about to say.
I will utilize the board, I will utilize my own handicapping skills as well as using the methodology on my terms. That's why I'm able to hit races like these below[screen shots]. I look at the track profile, my race models, the board and race setup and then make my decision. I'm flexible, I bend but don't break. As for Stakes races, if the methodology works then it works and it's the handicapper who lacks confidence in his abilities. Below are the races I caught at Woodbine on Saturday while playing Keenland at the same time. The last shot was this years Kentucky Derby and this was just another reason I considered the winner a contender. 10 horses, 20 horses, doesn't matter, just remember to signal when passing other horses.

DanBoals · 11-01-2022, 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by omar

if the methodology works then it works and it's the handicapper who lacks confidence in his abilities.

You can check my postings on the Selections sub-forums and the number of 1st and 2nd choices that have won if you doubt my "confidence".

As for handicapping races after they have been won, that is a far easier task and pays far less. I have noticed that when you post your selections pre-race, your win percentage seems far lower.

omar · 11-02-2022, 05:17 PM

I think you misunderstood me. When I post my selections I’ll only play my top2-3 choices when I’m getting at least 5-1 or better on the horse. If my top 3 choices are short I might bet the 4th horse down if he’s a really good price. I list all the races but at the bottom I advise that you should wait for your price. I’m not interested in an $8/$9/$10 horse.
Sat 11/29 at Woobine I hit a $64 horse and I believe he paid $23 to place. A few races later I caught Miss Marie another $50 horse. My problem is I play too many exotic wagers . When you don’t catch and I didn’t, that cuts down your profit a lot to the point where I ask myself what did I just do. I tell myself every day before I bet, no more exotics, just modified strap parlays and what do I do, the first bet out of the gate the next day is more of the same and if you start off losing then my brain says to stop and make straight wagers, no it tells me to catch up by playing more exotics. And in the last or 2nd last race I had the 7, $23.60 to place but did not have the winner. However had I bothered to look at value capper, to me the way I look at that program, the #2 Minors Gift stood out like a sore thumb and I could hear the horse saying to me why didn’t you use me in the exacta, why didn’t youDummy?? Why because I never hit alt tab to check the screen. So that was a $906 exacta I didn’t catch.
Every day with that program after downloading all the day’s results , I always scan the day races for what I consider good value plays. I saw one race at mnr where the top horse went off at 1-5 with program odds of 4-1 with a smooth line in the arc. The top horse to me was a throwout. Raced twice, once at Sa and last at dmr. Finished 2nd and 3rd. Gets laid off 3-4 months. That’s okay if you’re bringing him to the breeders cup but no they change trainers and take him to penn national. Here’s the form question I ask is why the big change. Obviously the horse ain’t right. These are the horses you’re supposed to bet against. 2 other horses in the arc went off at 30-1 & 18-1, big overlays. Just bet them, don’t even handicap the race. Look if you find just 10 plays on the whole day and just hit one race you should make your quota unless you bet like me. Ha,ha,ha. And I know I posted what I look for with value capper on Pace Advantage somewhere.
And like I say wait for your price.
Long winded omar.

10-31-2022, 02:47 AM	#1
omar Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 378	Bc this friday & saturday I will post my track profiles and race models for Keenland the day before each card. The problem is there's a 6 day lag between races. Heaven help us if track comes up sloppy or muddy. I will update each after Fridays races. Like I said in an earlier post somewhere I utilize a non-strict interpretation of Docs work. eg. Doc lived in California. Let's say he's alive today and he comes to NYC and visits the Cloisters in upper Manhattan. I ask him how did he get there and he says he took the 1 train. Well I come from Brooklyn and there's no 1 train. So I first have to figure out how to get to the 1 train. Same thing with his methodology. I know where he's coming from and getting to, I'm just coming from a different location to get to where he's going to. When making my track profile I used all age groups, all class groups with no regard for the sex of the horse. You'll see by the smooth progressions of %Med numbers that it doesn't matter, if it did the numbers would be all over the place. I'm not constructing a par times table. The same for my race surface/distance models. I never used RDSS but most of Docs designations are the same. So use them to your advantage. Wait for your price. Omar Last edited by omar; 10-31-2022 at 02:50 AM.

11-01-2022, 04:19 AM	#3
omar Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 378	I was busy most of the day so I apologize for not responding sooner but not for what I'm about to say. I will utilize the board, I will utilize my own handicapping skills as well as using the methodology on my terms. That's why I'm able to hit races like these below[screen shots]. I look at the track profile, my race models, the board and race setup and then make my decision. I'm flexible, I bend but don't break. As for Stakes races, if the methodology works then it works and it's the handicapper who lacks confidence in his abilities. Below are the races I caught at Woodbine on Saturday while playing Keenland at the same time. The last shot was this years Kentucky Derby and this was just another reason I considered the winner a contender. 10 horses, 20 horses, doesn't matter, just remember to signal when passing other horses. Attached Images

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10-31-2022, 04:47 PM	#2
DanBoals Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Reno, NV Posts: 463	If I am not mistaken, Howard was born in Brooklyn. The methodology was not designed for the best races in the world. It was designed to win day in and day out. You can beat the races, but not the race.

11-02-2022, 05:17 PM	#5
omar Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 378	I think you misunderstood me. When I post my selections I’ll only play my top2-3 choices when I’m getting at least 5-1 or better on the horse. If my top 3 choices are short I might bet the 4th horse down if he’s a really good price. I list all the races but at the bottom I advise that you should wait for your price. I’m not interested in an $8/$9/$10 horse. Sat 11/29 at Woobine I hit a $64 horse and I believe he paid $23 to place. A few races later I caught Miss Marie another $50 horse. My problem is I play too many exotic wagers . When you don’t catch and I didn’t, that cuts down your profit a lot to the point where I ask myself what did I just do. I tell myself every day before I bet, no more exotics, just modified strap parlays and what do I do, the first bet out of the gate the next day is more of the same and if you start off losing then my brain says to stop and make straight wagers, no it tells me to catch up by playing more exotics. And in the last or 2nd last race I had the 7, $23.60 to place but did not have the winner. However had I bothered to look at value capper, to me the way I look at that program, the #2 Minors Gift stood out like a sore thumb and I could hear the horse saying to me why didn’t you use me in the exacta, why didn’t youDummy?? Why because I never hit alt tab to check the screen. So that was a $906 exacta I didn’t catch. Every day with that program after downloading all the day’s results , I always scan the day races for what I consider good value plays. I saw one race at mnr where the top horse went off at 1-5 with program odds of 4-1 with a smooth line in the arc. The top horse to me was a throwout. Raced twice, once at Sa and last at dmr. Finished 2nd and 3rd. Gets laid off 3-4 months. That’s okay if you’re bringing him to the breeders cup but no they change trainers and take him to penn national. Here’s the form question I ask is why the big change. Obviously the horse ain’t right. These are the horses you’re supposed to bet against. 2 other horses in the arc went off at 30-1 & 18-1, big overlays. Just bet them, don’t even handicap the race. Look if you find just 10 plays on the whole day and just hit one race you should make your quota unless you bet like me. Ha,ha,ha. And I know I posted what I look for with value capper on Pace Advantage somewhere. And like I say wait for your price. Long winded omar.