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| Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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#1 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 11,327
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RMATH LSP Saves the Day R10 PARX 3-5
Going into r10 was down $100 when I played the r10 ex and lo and behold my lsp when the race keying a $178.20 ex and making it a winning day. My
picks TRK FAST R1 3-1-7-2 LS4 R2 2-3-4-1 R3 3=7-8-5 LS6 R4 7-6-2-4 R5 8-4-7-3 LS1 R6 3-8-2-7 LS4 R7 5-9=1-2 LS3 LS8 R8 4-2-3-6 R9 2-9-8-1 LS6 LS4 R10 5-10-7-6 LS8 LS12 GOOD LUCK Tim Winning Ticket Mar 5 3:37:49 PM Complete Parx Racing 10 Exacta $2.00 12/5,6,7,8,10 $10 $178.20 $168.20 Winning Combo 12[$24.40] 10[$5.20] Screen Shots The LSP tiered #10 BL/BL & #8 RX ranking #$VDC & #4 CSR, the place horse tiered #5 BL/BL & #2 RX. Tim
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#2 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Colorado
Posts: 308
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Well Done Tim, I must admit that I lost this one, barely! If you watched the race in the last 20 yards the 1 horse passed the 5 who was my Key horse in a Key box trifecta. The 1 horse was my long shot horse based on his NP score, and BPP, and PL scores. I threw out the 6 as an E who could not keep up. My bet was the 5 Keyed with the 8,10,12,1.
I also want to point out that our data shows based on 300 races that at PRX 91% of the time the Winner is in the top 5 RX3, the Place horse 84% and the Show horse 82%. Most other tracks show the same percentages, + or - a couple of points.Meaning we can find the exacta there 76% of the time and the tri 63% of the time. We need to watch for those long shots like the 1 and indicators that will show a long shot. The big question is bet construction with this kind of data. If you watch the race, you will see how well RDSS predicted the outcome.
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Haakon 47 'Something magical happens when you bring together a group of people from different disciplines with a common purpose.' Mark Stefik Palo Alto Research Centre Fellow |
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#3 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 11,327
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Thanks Dick. That was a tough beat.
Tim
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#4 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Downers Grove, Il
Posts: 498
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Tim and Dick
Thanks for your contributions. I learn something new everyday. Also Dick thanks for presenting your logic that you used in making your decision. That I very much appreciate because you have shown that making decisions and sticking with them is a big part of the game. Don ps. I noticed that you folks had 50 hits...and probably climbing. But like I say...a thank you for information presented should be a common courtesy.. I guess I am ole school. |
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#5 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,586
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Dick
Thanks for sharing the info on Parx. May I ask is this with using preceptor or your own pace lines. Tim Nice hit Jeff |
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#6 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 11,327
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Thanks Don and Jeff. Don all us farts were taught the same thing. I guess the newer generations weren't brought up the same way.
Tim
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#7 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: california
Posts: 195
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Thnks ! For you sharing,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
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#8 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Downers Grove, Il
Posts: 498
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Tim
You got that right. Don |
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