Jim Bradshaw's Matchup - 8 Month Update

[20towin]

RichieP.

I enjoy reading your posts they are very informative, the stories with Jim Bradshaw bring back the FUN memories of the early days of going to the track picking with the form.


Question.

What does the Hat do with Horses who have MULTIPLE running stlyes? Every once in a while I will see a horse who wins wire to wire, off the early 2 or 3 lenghts and win and also close to almost win when back 5 or 6 lenghts.

[The Yank]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Great call on the winning 8 Yank. He obliviated the field.

Regarding the FTS question and it's a great one.

Jim taught me to bet ANY and EVERY race where I can find THE HORSE that I KNOW is gonna win. Even if the horse loses I still KNOW the horse is gonna win. Follow? Those races are the ones he wants me to FOCUS on and SPOT PLAY. FTS means NOTHING to him.

Excellent question. Seriously

Rich- Thanks for the positive reinforcement!

Even though I got this race, I was still concerned that a fast third fraction of another horse might catch my horse. This morning I looked at the results chart and saw my winner did not win wire to wire (although he did crush the field going away). As such, the race wasn't run the way I thought it would be. These kinds of 'lingering doubts' make it really difficult for me to "know I'm going to win". JUST BEING TOTALLY HONEST WITH YOU HERE.

I really am now into the Match Up concept but, the more I learn, the more I realize I don't yet know.

With this background, here is the MOST FRUSTRATING THING:

(1) I cannot tell the difference between a race where Match Up correctly would have called the winner and I missed it (but the Hat/you would have got it with Match-Up) versus where I missed the winner and the ideal application of Match Up would have also missed the winner. Since the Hat/you are obviously more adept at the Match-Up, I wouldn't be able to tell the difference between these two cases. Statisticans might refer to this as Type I error.

(2) There is also the reverse case (a 'false positive' - what statistians might refer to as Type II error) where I got the correct horse by incorrect application of the Match-Up and the Hat/you would not have called that horse (i.e., I got the horse by 'dumb luck'). It's almost as important for me to know that I am misunderstanding these kinds of races as well as my type
(1) errors.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by The Yank

Rich- Thanks for the positive reinforcement!

Even though I got this race, I was still concerned that a fast third fraction of another horse might catch my horse. This morning I looked at the results chart and saw my winner did not win wire to wire (although he did crush the field going away). As such, the race wasn't run the way I thought it would be. These kinds of 'lingering doubts' make it really difficult for me to "know I'm going to win". JUST BEING TOTALLY HONEST WITH YOU HERE.

I really am now into the Match Up concept but, the more I learn, the more I realize I don't yet know.

With this background, here is the MOST FRUSTRATING THING:

(1) I cannot tell the difference between a race where Match Up correctly would have called the winner and I missed it (but the Hat/you would have got it with Match-Up) versus where I missed the winner and the ideal application of Match Up would have also missed the winner. Since the Hat/you are obviously more adept at the Match-Up, I wouldn't be able to tell the difference between these two cases. Statisticans might refer to this as Type I error.

(2) There is also the reverse case (a 'false positive' - what statistians might refer to as Type II error) where I got the correct horse by incorrect application of the Match-Up and the Hat/you would not have called that horse (i.e., I got the horse by 'dumb luck'). It's almost as important for me to know that I am misunderstanding these kinds of races as well as my type
(1) errors.

Yank,
The Hat is in a league of his own when it comes to matching.

WE can be better matchers IMO by:

1) Downloading Jim's 5 step approach that he made for us and is posted here
http://scott.asmallorange.com/~binde...ead.php?t=1158.
This is the foundation for EVERYTHING that comes after.

2) Getting the new book "Matchup2 with the 5 step approach" by The Hat. Jim spent MONTHS packing the book with:
a) current races
b) analysis
c) current races
d) analysis

This in addition to working and practicing the 5 step appproach posted here will after a couple of MONTHS of FOCUSED practice begin to etch certain PATTERNS of successful matched races in YOUR mind based on things YOU have done when looking at the pp's Yank.

My STRONGEST suggestions to you regarding working races are these:
1) When you work a race and WIN it SAVE the race in some way (I do things on a laptop so a "screencapture" saved to my documents works). After you have saved up at least a few of these go and look for PATTERNS OF SUCCESS there ok?

2) NEVER take a race you lost and go back and MAKE the winner come up.You will find yourself up the creek without a paddle QUICKLY.

This applies to ANYONE using ONLY raw pp's to match horses.That is all I can speak on with certainty.

PRACTICE AND LOOK BACK ONLY ON WINNING RACES.

Richie

[RichieP]

I received this email from a member last night. I was so taken by it I called Jim and forwarded it to him to see.

I have the author's permission to post it here after removing some personal stuff.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Been following your posts on the matchup. Some real gold to be had there. The real trick for me is to change my thinking. Easy to say but hard to do.The thread about not going over the race makes perfect sense to me and I'll tell you why.

Years ago I took some psychology classes and in psy221 a lot of time was spent on the subconscious mind. Turns out the subconscious mind remembers everything you see,hear,taste,feel,everything you experence on any level good or bad or indifferent is recorded in the subconscious. The subconscious mind works 24-7 never tales a moment off. One of the problems is even though the information is stored sometimes the conscious mind cannot access it. Thats the rub. But even worse than that the subconscious is constantly trying to influence the conscious.

Now when it comes to horse racing can you imagine how screwed up the subconscious mind must be. Over the years it has recorded your every thought on the subject. Now one of the beauties of the subcon scious is that it tends to work on the most recent thought first , this can be used to your advantage because if its feed thoughts that are productive and the information is repeated over and over it accepts this and will work from that point in time.

Everytime something counterproductive is thought and acted on the subconscious will mark that point in time and return there first before moving on to what you really want it to do. When you look to see what went wrong in a race thats where all the subconscious effort will be applied. Guess what when you go to do a new race it wants to start looking for what went wrong in the last race. Now that is truly counterproductive.

The subconscious mind can be trained but care must be taken on the conscious level to only give it information that will help not hinder. Hope all this makes sense. It was not my intention to get into all this , but after the post on not going over the lost races and seeing that a lot of people seem to think this is ok , I guess I just had to get this off my chest.
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[RichieP]

Originally Posted by 20towin

RichieP.
Question.

What does the Hat do with Horses who have MULTIPLE running stlyes? Every once in a while I will see a horse who wins wire to wire, off the early 2 or 3 lenghts and win and also close to almost win when back 5 or 6 lenghts.

"20"

He LOVES these types when they are FAST.

Lots of times he can "see" them winning under different scenarios.

Richie

[The Yank]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Yank,
The Hat is in a league of his own when it comes to matching.

WE can be better matchers IMO by:

1) Downloading Jim's 5 step approach that he made for us and is posted here
http://scott.asmallorange.com/~binde...ead.php?t=1158.
This is the foundation for EVERYTHING that comes after.

2) Getting the new book "Matchup2 with the 5 step approach" by The Hat. Jim spent MONTHS packing the book with:
a) current races
b) analysis
c) current races
d) analysis

This in addition to working and practicing the 5 step appproach posted here will after a couple of MONTHS of FOCUSED practice begin to etch certain PATTERNS of successful matched races in YOUR mind based on things YOU have done when looking at the pp's Yank.

My STRONGEST suggestions to you regarding working races are these:
1) When you work a race and WIN it SAVE the race in some way (I do things on a laptop so a "screencapture" saved to my documents works). After you have saved up at least a few of these go and look for PATTERNS OF SUCCESS there ok?

2) NEVER take a race you lost and go back and MAKE the winner come up.You will find yourself up the creek without a paddle QUICKLY.

This applies to ANYONE using ONLY raw pp's to match horses.That is all I can speak on with certainty.

PRACTICE AND LOOK BACK ONLY ON WINNING RACES.

Richie

Rich:

Thanks for the advice- I will follow it dilligently

[Cellarfunk]

Richie-

Been working real hard here and following along with everything you've posted so far. Also been re-reading the new Matchup book daily. Some races just seem to be a piece of cake...others just get me down, guess thats just the nature of the game. I know you have been posting screenshots with RDSS that show all your "contenders" lines together. I don't have RDSS yet, but am seeking someway to be able to view all the selected lines together. Just makes it easier to compare position, times, BL etc... I'm a Validator man and obviously the screen that lists all lines together uses adjusted data. It works sometimes, but not enough of the time. Using printed PP just seems to loose too much in the "shuffle" of sheets. Any ideas or suggestions?

Thanks for all your efforts, this is absolutely amazing.

Thanks again.

[RichieP]

"Rich remember the race starts when the gate pops. NOT the 2nd call ok? The race starts when the gate pops." - Jim Bradshaw

"Rich I NEVER look at one line for a horse" - Jim Bradshaw

"Rich I know the horse is FAST. Once I know this I take bits of this line and bits of another line,combine them in my mind and make him the winner" - Jim Bradshaw

"Rich remember the race starts when the gate pops. NOT the 2nd call ok? The race starts when the gate pops." - Jim Bradshaw

"I saw Jimmy hit SEVENTEEN winners in a row Richie. He was on fire." - Pirco Charter Member Bob Cochran in a phone call conversation with me 4 days ago.

"Rich I NEVER look at one line for a horse." - Jim Bradshaw

"When I took over the track team Rich I noticed the girl's biggest problem was they were going out too fast too EARLY." - Jim Bradshaw talking about coaching his track team

"I made the statement that for every fifth of a second a horse runs too fast early he will lose TWO fifths of a second at the end.Folks thought I was crazy til Huey Mahl got up and proved my staement correct" - Jim Bradshaw

"Jimmy how the heck did you get that horse? We don't see him at all" - The Ragozin sheet guys after Hat had given them a nice winner after a seminar.

"Whoa. Hold on Jim. You LOVED this horse? Are you serious? This is one of the first guys I threw out of the race. HOW in the world can you see this horse winning?" - RichieP after being exposed for the FIRST time to Jim's Voodoo- October 2006

""Rich remember the race starts when the gate pops. NOT the 2nd call ok? The race starts when the gate pops." - Jim Bradshaw
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

What Jim does has been given all kinds of names with the term "Voodoo" having become by far the most popular.

I don't pretend to know all of what he "sees" in a race.

Over the past 4 months since being "exposed" to IT however I HAVE noticed PATTERNS that seem to occur over and over and over with him and this thing I have come to call FUNNY STUFF. Here are the PATTERNS.

VOODOO PATTERNS:
1) He NEVER uses one paceline to evaluate a horse. NEVER

2) He ONLY does weird stuff with FAST horses.

3) He is SUPER FOCUSED on the FIRST CALL in EVERY RACE.

4) With EARLY horses he ALWAYS considers and evaluates the lead it needs to win ( it's comfort zone) at the FIRST CALL. When he feels a horse will NOT get that comfort TODAY he throws the horse out so fast it is ridiculous. Often these horses are ones who when looking at final time and the like come up very strong and are strongly bet at the windows. He could care less. The horse is THROWN OUT IMMEDIATELY. Then the race gets RE-EVALUATED as if that horse does NOT exist.

5) Using the fastest pace from the last race of ALL the horses (REGARDLESS of track,distance and even surface): When he sees that this horse has battled through 1c and 2c or made positional and /or beaten lenght gain gain he opens the pp's up ALL the way and will create a "virtual line" in his head combining bits of one race with bits of another. If THAT horse is FAST after doing this AND it also fits the winning RACE SHAPE (early or other than early) THIS horse is his bet.

When I tell you THESE horses are the biggest BOMB winners I have seen since matching horses I am telling the truth. $30.00-$40.00-$50.00-$60.00 etc etc.

Why do they often pay so big? Because he does NOT carry that last race through to the finish. If the horse does what is posted above through the 1c-2c he could care less if the horse was beaten 20 lenghts at the end of the race. What DOES count in his mind is the FIGHTING and or positional gain dealing with ONLY the 1c and 2c. Once he has that in his mind he goes wild with the pp's and creates a virtual FAST line for the horse.

6) He NEVER uses one paceline to evaluate a horse. NEVER

7) He is SUPER FOCUSED on the FIRST CALL in EVERY RACE

8) He ONLY does weird stuff with FAST horses.
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Here is a race with 2 EARLY horses ok? Today is a route race. Whom would you pick as the best early?

#2:
1c - 46.2 - on the lead by 1 lenght
2c - 110.4

#5:
1c - 46.2- on the lead by 1/2 a lenght
2c - 110.0

What the public and almost everyone would say is the #5 is the best right?

How could anything pick the #2 over the #5? Especially after reading everything written about checking the lenghts lead needed at the first call by earlies to win.

Well VOODOO gets the #2 winning the race! Yup that's right. wanna know how and why?

Because the REAL answer to the above example is: YOU DO NOT HAVE ALL THE INFORMATION NEEDED TO EVALUATE THE 2 HORSES.

What is missing? wanna guess?

The thing missing is the FIRST FRACTION PACE OF RACES. Yes. the info that is furthest LEFT on the past performance line. You know the place where NOBODY looks.

*** Important***
VOODOO always looks LEFT on the past performance line ok? ALWAYS.

Now let's rexamine the 2 horses and their Power lines inserting the FIRST FRACTION pace of race please.

Then let's make a place at the table because VOODOO will be joining us ok?

#2:
1fr - 22.4
1c - 46.2 - on lead by 1 lenght
2c - 110.4

#5:
1fr - 23.1
1c - 46.2 - on lead by 1/2 lenght

STOP right NOW.

2 Early horses right? When the gate OPENS the 2 has a TWO lenght lead over the 5 with a 22.4 vs a 23.1. The 5 is NO longer early. He is BEHIND and CHASING the TRUE BOSS of TODAYS MATCHUP who is the #2.

This is Voodoo.

Also with a 2 lenght lead early over the#5 the #2 DOES have his 1 lenght lead needed to WIN running early. Go slow and you will see it. It just does NOT show up in the pp's at the 1st call man.

This is Voodoo.

The "Voodoo" mind however sees the advantage because the FIRST FRACTION tells the story and NOW the #5 is eliminated IMMEDIATELY from the race. Now the #2 becomes a LONE EARLY and will win the race easily because HE controls the pace EFFORTLESSLY.

This is Voodoo

You just picked a horse that by looking at the pp's TRADITIONALLY is FOUR fifths of a second SLOWER than another early at the second call. That is why Jim Bradshaw's MATCHUP has NOTHING to do with the 2c ok? THIS race along with many others has already been decided LONG before. In a place where NOBODY looks for key info.

This is Voodoo. Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw's Voodoo.

The # 2 is the winner - $16.60

Here is a screenshot of the 2 and 5. WHY include that sprint line for the #2? Because it shows a FIGHT to get the lead in a 21.4 that is why. Who the hell is gonna be able to get AHEAD of this horse early in TODAYS race? Certainly NOT the #5 which you will see for yourself after looking at the race on Pdf.

This is Voodoo. Jim Bradshaw's Voodoo.

First the screenshot then I will attach the PDF of the whole race next so you can examine it at your leisure ok?

[RichieP]

(Cont)

Here is the Pdf for the race worked.

This finishes up this thread for me.

I just want to let folks know that the Matchup is both VERY hard work and at the same time VERY rewarding ok?

I want to thank the Hat for taking the time he has to teach me HIS way.

I also have to thank him for letting me do this thread from the heart without wanting to see what I wrote ahead of time. It was both cool and yet SCARY at the same time because I had no security blanket in the form of Jim checking everything ahead of time.

Thanx also to everyone who has written and posted up. I hoped that I could pass along what Jim has taught me so far to YOU. That is why this all went down

All the best and good matching!
Richie Pizzicara

[Bill Lyster]

Richie:

Is it appropriate to ask if there are other signs of fighting, for horses who are not early or E/P or EP? What signs indicate the gumption of P, SP and S types of horses? Any there any examples available?

Thanks,

Bill