Intersting "Quirk" in Race 4 Yesterday at Saratoga

[kahunab]

Yesterday at Saratoga, I encountered this interesting situation. The 3 horse’s recent performances look horrible. 7th by 80 lengths in a field of 7? 4th by 8 in a field of 7? Not really stellar performances. So the 2nd line chosen by the computer looks appropriate.

Looking at the Leverage Pace screen he does fall in the top 5 RX3 so he is a candidate for the winner as our database tells us 90% of the time the winner will be in the top 5 RX3. We demote the 4 to secondary contender status even though he has some better numbers than our 3.

We move to the segments screen and we see the 3 horse as the worst looking of the 6 horses. What kind of running style is E1? I have selected the 2 as the key horse but who are my companion horses? The 1, 6 and the 7 for sure. Do we play the 3 or the 4 as the next companion? I am very tempted to play the 4. He looks like a Werpy Longshot.

We take a quick look at the New Pace screen and we see an interesting picture. Remember New Pace looks at the whole past performance record of the horse. Look at our 3 horse. New Pace has him rated as the number one Early horse and the top rated horse in the field although it also seems to say he can’t get the lead. When I look at his PPs I don’t think he is really an Early horse but…….

So I give him his 4th line back, based on his New Pace rank, just to see. It is the best of his last 3 surface and distance.
Here is how the Segments screen looks. Our horse moves to 3rd on both sides of the screen. I think he has the potential for the board. I choose to play him instead of the 4 as a companion.

[kahunab]

So how did it run? Our 3 horse took the lead for a while and then followed the winners home finishing 3rd. So a horse that finished 7th , walked home, and finished 80 lengths back hits the board for us. No big prices, I thought he would have gone off at a much longer price. Oh, well, I just thought it interesting how New Pace can give us a hint that we might need to look at the race a bit differently.

[Lt1]

Dick thanks for a very good explanation and how to make something out of at what first looks like nothing. Another case of not being numbers blind and paying attention to all available info,
Tim

[dlivery]

Hello
Just a quick question and by the way the out come from your above race called right
Thank You

Question How can one find out the app to download for marking up RDSS +plus -

[kahunab]

Hi,
I have a program named Snagit. You capture a screen shot and then edit it in Snagit where you can add arrows,circles, text, and limit the size of the capture. Great program for sharing on this site.

Dick

[stormbringer]

Wow you are one of the best!!

[kahunab]

Thanks for the vote of confidence, Stormbringer, but probably not!

[ignacio todoberto bernal]

once again thankyou great KAHUNAB!!!!!!

NASH.

[kahunab]

Thanks, Nash!