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[Houndog]

Looking back at yesterday's Fairground race of the week where Mi Isabeela won, I downloaded the file from TM to work the race. Probably nobody on this board would have used the number #3 Run For Z but look what kind of adjustment this horse get's off of it's last line.

[Houndog]

This horse get's a whopping 7 second adjustment making a 20-1 shot a monster in this race.

[Houndog]

Tied for the top spot with the winner. As I have said nobody here would have used this horse, but you have to exercise caution when you get wild adjustments as these. I am curious how SPEC160 and RDSS handled this horse.

[Ted Craven]

Here are some screen shots of Energy and BL/BL using your chosen pacelines, from Val2006 (the testing version of Val I showed Doc, corrected for the 2006 SR+DTV rating scale change), from Spec160 and from RDSS.

Val3c or Val2 can behave erratically because the change to the SR and DTV scale cause twice the DTV to be used, and the Inter Track Variants can be wildly unpredictable when projecting different tracks, distance structures and surfaces to today (as is the case here).

Val2006 was much more sceptical of Run for Z, Spec and RDSS somewhat less so. Your advice is good re exercising caution, especially when so many adjustments are required, and especially using the non-manual versions of Validator.

(I wiped out my own paceline selections in RDSS for this example, but I recall getting #6 and #9 as BL/BL rank 1 and 2; ask me why I didn't bet it that way...)

Ted

[socantra]

Ted,

I don't have the card. Could you take a look at the running lines on "Run for Z" on the other programs. The difference between the adjustments on the 1st line and 2nd line back are rather extreme. As Houndog said, almost no adjustment on the 2nd line and almost 7 seconds on the 1st. The 1st call of the most recent race gets almost a 3 second adjustment

There's shouldn't be any track to track adjustments, they are both at the same distance and the variant is only 12 points apart. At a mile, that would only be account for 3 seconds or so, even at full variant adjustment.

Dick...

[admin]

Using Valm /Validator 1 with manual entry of pace lines
the three is nicely placed at the bottom for a easy hide
Handicappers daily gave the last line a 68 speed rating
with a 20 varient When I entered this line when I got to the
speed rating I followed Doc's directions and hit 0
The program asked me pace line from FGX 1? or Other Track ?
I hit enter as the line was from Fairgrounds and Valm used the 3 year
best time and gave # 3 the same 68 speed rating with no adjustment

[admin]

Im sorry actually This is the adjusted lines screen
The # 3 horse gets knocked down to a 63 speed rating

[admin]

Here is were the three rates on Validator manual entry

[socantra]

thanks Bill. I didn't look at the race and don't really care how the horse ranked. I was just curious as to any possible reason for that severe a difference in adjustment between 2 races from the same track, same distance and surface and within a couple of weeks of each other. The variants weren't even all that far apart. I didn't think Val used speed ratings in its adjustments, but maybe it does.

I'm just curious. I'm not using Val these days, but know a few people who are still trying to.. I'd just like to have some idea of what could possibly cause that extreme a varience in the adjustments between the 2 races and thought that Ted might have a better idea of what might have caused it than anyone else.

Dick

[admin]

I was more interested in houndogs original post
When he showed the wild adjustment. I was very thankful because in the past I have not seen this entered line 1 from the adjusted screen and most likely bet on the three

I bet this race for the contest .
I did not enter a line for the three for many reasons.
I was proud of all of the reasons because they come out of the follow up
I am the worst handicapper on this board unless I follow directions

I want to prove to myself that what I'm doing is today is better than
what I was doing for years. What I was doing for years was
fine when I was using Validator before the change.

I'm sorry I stepped on your thread. I was working on mine as you posted yours. You beat me by eight minutes. I already had made all my screen shots and had re entered line 3 into valm to show the difference that Valm and Val 3 were getting for the same line so I continued my thought.
Now I hope Ted can help you out. Sorry for stepping on your post
GS
Bill