Nice Day Ender Parx R9 Ex 10-1

[Lt1]

Spent most of the day sitting on my hands[lost my only bet and was down $33] when R9 came up and had some nice ex payoffs showing so took a shot and scored when my RMATH LSP got up for 2nd] My picks
TRK FAST
R1 3-7-8-9 LS6
R2 6-7-3-1
R3 4-5-2-6 LS1
R4 1-5-8-6 LS5
R5 4-5-6-1
R6 4-1-7-3 LS9
R7 6-3-7-8
R8 5-1-4-2 LS7
R9 3-1-10-6 LS7 LS8
GOOD LUCK
Tim
Winning Ticket
Oct 1 4:26:11 PM Complete Parx Racing 9 Exacta $2.00 1,3,6,10/7 $8.00 $175.20 $167.20
Winning Combo
6[$16.80[ 7[$8.20]
Screen Shots



The winner tiered #4BL/BL & #5 RX, the place horse tiered #6 on both screens ranking #3VDC & #5CSR with good corollary support.
Tim

[darmar]

The day is never over until the last race is run.
And Kudos to you on cashing in and having a profitable day
Darryl

[kahunab]

Great job, Tim! I should have sat on my hands today, I bet races 1, 3, and 6. I won all 3 bets. In race 1 I collected 11.50 on an 18.00 bet, in race 3 I collected 5.40 on a 6.00 bet and race 6 I collected 18.60 on an 18.00 bet. A kind of kiss your sister day.
I handicapped the 9th as you did and offer up my analysis not in opposition but rather as a supplement to what you have offered. I think that each of us view handicapping in slightly different way or points of view and we can learn from each other. Tim, I think you and I see the race in a similar way but there are variations and differences. I hope that when guys look at our work they can see similarities and differences that help them win.
Here is my take on race 9. First, let’s look at the Data. I do use the data from our data base. Here is the Data for win,place and show. For PRX routes we have data from 176 races. Remember we use computer selected lines for consistency. (I am sure you each can correct some of the bad line selections of the computer and do a better job. Sometimes the computer lines just make no sense.)



This data tells us that using RX3 we have an 89% chance of getting the winner in the top 5, an 88% chance of getting the place horse in the top 5 RX3 and an 84% chance of getting the show horse in the top 5. That means we have a 66% chance of getting the trifecta in the top 5 RX3 horses. (65.7 to be exact for you Math guys.) That is 2 out of 3 races, pretty good odds.
So let’s look at the Leverage Pace screen. We select our top 5 RX3 horses as contenders. We also know that 85% of the time one of the Leverage Pace horses(Blue Arrow) will Win or Place.What do we see in the Leverage Pace screen? Note that in the 6 horse I have high lighted 4 areas (scores) BL/BL, RMath’s 4-Score, RX scores, Leverage Pace scores. I would note that only 2 of the top 5 RX3 horses have full 4-Scores and both hit the board. One of our Leverage Pace horses did win or place. The 7. So, in this race our task in my approach is to select the key horse to key with others for the exacta and trifecta. You can see by the red arrow I selected the 3 as my key horse. The 6 is clearly going to be a companion he has all 4 important scores and is one of two with a complete 4 score.

Now we look at the BL/BL screen. With 21 Speed Points we are looking for late horses and 3 and 7 are the two best LPR horses. BL/BL seems to support our top 5 choices and the contenders for the key as the 3 and 7.



to be continued below.

[kahunab]

Now we look at the Segments screen. Do we choose as our key horse the 10, 7 or the 3. Looking at it now, I probably made a mistake here. The 7 clearly has the best TS+F3 in a late race. I chose the 3 for other reasons, but the 7 did present itself as a better choice in retrospect.

One final screen the New Pace screen. Remember, we use this as a look at the horses overall ability over his total past performances, not just one line. Here we note again the 21 Early Speed points so we line up on low/pressured. That gives us the top two as the 7 and the 3. You can see here another case for making the 7 the key as Tim did. Our 6 horse doesn’t look so good until we remember that he is one of two horses with complete 4-scores and is in our top 5 RX3. My bet was a Key Exacta box with the 3 keyed with the 1,6,7, 10 and a trifecta key box 3 keyed with the 1,6,7,10. As you can see even though I lost the exacta, the $1 Trifecta paid 348.70.

Earlier I mentioned how I did on three other races. I used the same strategy on all the races, and you can see that favorites came in and I kissed my sister. But one hit out of 4 can yield great results.

Thanks for reading through all this. I hope it helps.

[Lt1]

Thanks Darryl.
Tim

[Lt1]

Wonderful work up Dick. Thanks for posting it. Folks as Dick points out we do have a little way of looking at a race[ like for me the 7 was not a win contender since it did not rank in the top 5 PL OR BPP]. However look at the screen shots we both posted[especially Dicks'] and study them. Also note that both of us keep records by track and dist. This is vital. As Doc use to preach know your tracks you play. If you have questions don't be afraid to ask them. Take advantage of members who are winning and are willing to help you. Anyway once again thanks Dick for your valuable input.
Tim

[kahunab]

Thanks, Tim!
Hope all is well in your world.

Dick

[Lt1]

Dick everything is fine thanks for asking. Just was over at the old program and saw that the latest post [last week] has over a 1000 views. Looks like we are wasting out time trying to show folks how to improve with the best program we have ever had. I guess it is time to call quits.
Tim

[kahunab]

I would agree with you, Tim, but I learn from your posts and I hope you pick up a bit from mine. So maybe we don't worry about them and just focus on what we can learn together.

Dick

[Lt1]

Sounds like a plan Dick.
Tim