Running Styles Question

[Bob Cochran]

Is that 3rd in a 5 horse field.?? or 6 in a 12 horse field ?
Some of this depends on the field size and where the horse typically runs.
huh?

[Houndog]

I think they are both important and NOT mutually exclusive. I would not discount visual ESP as I have seen ample enough proof in the "Hat" forum.

[tom]

Originally Posted by Bob Cochran

Is that 3rd in a 5 horse field.?? or 6 in a 12 horse field ?
Some of this depends on the field size and where the horse typically runs.
huh?

I take that into account. As far as running styles, I really only focus a lot on whether a horses is early or need the lead early. Presser and sustained aren't as important to me. If I have a horse who is 7th by 2.5 lengths, I tend to look more at the 7th than the 2.5 lengths back.

In your example, though, I would say the 3rd in a five horse field is more improtant thant he 6th in the 12 horse field - becsue the horse donsen't know how many are behind him, only how many in front. The 3 guys see two horses and stay with the, while the 6 guy could be last or next to last and he would never know it - he is not comfortable challenging the 5 in front of him.

[Bob Cochran]

Ok How do you decide when there is a "blanket finish" ie: a 10 horse field
and 3 or 4 horses are fighting for 2nd or 3rd place money ?

not to be controversial, just injecting different scenarios. The point is,
it all depends on ????. context of the race.

[tom]

Not sure what your getting at - I don't consider the finish for running styles - other than, I try to use race where the horses ran well. My running styles are all about the first and second calls.

[Bob Cochran]

I guess i used the incorrect terminology. What i meant to say was horses grouped very close throughout the race. ie; 6th by1-1/5 in a 12 horse field
at the first or second call, or 3rd by 1-1/5 in a 5 horse field.

[tom]

My experience has been a horse 6-1.5 lenghts is more likey to run back to the 6th than the 1.5 lengths. At the first call, I always default to position over lengths. I would not give a speed point to a horse 6th-1.5 even though he was was within 2 lengths.

[Bob Cochran]

Remember Tom, in racing there are no rules.
IMHO

[thelyingthief]

you have to look at the splits--if the fractions are slow or fast, where the horse was positioned at the break--everything enters the picture; determining running style is largely a factor of repeated position (hence, "style"), although caution here is important. the last several races may indicate a change in the horse's running pattern, for instance, or the animal may have been run at a much higher class level than it can handle, and its pattern is obscured by its unwillingness to compete, but on a drop to more appropriate company will shake off his lethargy.

it's difficult, at times, to appreciate "pressure": better horses are continually applying it, and can destroy a lesser animal in very quick time, much less than an entire fraction. so, you'll sometimes think, my god those are slow fractions, when, in fact, the pressure in segments of fractions was very high. this is a factor in evaluating style.

one of my favorite throwouts--but still the source of an occasional big mutuel--is the horse that looks like it's a closer, always 9 by 16--when in fact it is an early speed type, but lacks the turn of foot to take control of a race. you'll find this configuration at lesser tracks a lot (the first characteristic of a cheap horse is--CHEAP SPEED), and at the bottom of the class structure of mid level tracks. sometimes these horses enter completely paceless fields, and "wake up", to the astonishment of everybody but the astute, and run wire to wire. happens every day.

as to the 6th by 1.5, if the fractions are sub 22's, that horse is fast, period. was he caught wide? did he stumble the break and rush up to attain position? if the animal is lightly raced, and quick, then expect a good performance today, especially if he's up against animals incapable of throwing 21.4; if he's mature, look at his wins: was he positioned early in those victories? what kind of splits seem within his abilities? examining the other animals, does he look competitive? then expect that 6 by 1.5 to be 1 by 0bl, 2nd by .25, or something similar today.

what about condition? has he come off a LO? and has his habitual pattern deteriorated? excluding a trainer's MO, this is a good indication of an injured animal, and a toss. Brohamer says very plainly, when previously fast horses cannot attain position--and this holds for sustained pressers, too, but in the second fraction--the horse is probably seriously flawed.

the situations are everything in the match-up; and the more you know about the patterns, the more involute and abstruse the meaning of them. don't expect horses to run to your nomenclature: what you're attempting to do, is UNDERSTAND the nature of the race here in front of you, and exploit the POSSIBILITIES in it.

you're trying to make money, and variant perceptions are the cornerstone of that pursuit. use position and running style to SEE oppurtunity; there are so many variables, and so many caveats to every race, that it isn't feasible to use ESP like a geometer's algorithm; expect things to differ from your definitions, but use your definitions to illuminate the anomalies, then take the money home. some of my most satisfying--and heart-rending--races have been where a much over looked horse has performed exactly as i perceived, only to be snuffed at the wire by another animal i'd tossed.

welcome to racing. it sucks. :-)~~