Does Leverage Pace work day to day?

[kahunab]

Gentlemen, I hope that you don’t evaluate the effectiveness of Leverage Pace based on my decision making. I made some bad choices in my work that should not reflect on the program. Please look at what the program gives us. As a start look at the horses above the line note that they are all blue arrow or Leverage Pace horses. Win or Place or both appear in 27 of 28 races. That is a pretty solid start for finding a horse to Key or a bet to WP. Jake asked what my actual bet would look like for DEL 3. It looked like this $1 Exacta Key Box 7/9,1,2,5 and Tri Key Box 7/1,2,5,9/1,2,5,9 which plays out like this: 7/1,2,5,9/1,2,5,9 or 1,2,5,9/7/1,2,5,9 or 1,2,5,9/1,2,5,9/7 or simply stated this bet wins if the 7 hits the board with any 2 of the 4 companions. I picked the wrong key for the Exacta and lost the Exacta but won the Tri which paid $47.
I sat on my hands for a good part of the day. Not sure if it was my mental attitude of low confidence or what? I bet 6 of the races and cashed a ticket in 5. One of my tickets lost money. I bet $18 and collected $7. One of the races which I did not bet, paid $3.05 for the $.50 tri. I tell you all that because my current quest is to find solid guidelines for placing the bet. Ideas like my key having to be over 5/2 with at least 2 longer shots in the 4 companion horses or maybe just having three longer odds companion horses is enough. My usual bet is a Key horse in a key box both in the trifecta and exacta. If I have a large enough field, say 7 or more horses, I will usually Key one horse with 4 others. That means an $8 exacta key box and $18 trifecta key box. Total investment of $26.
So we start with the blue arrow horses in our quest to find the Key. Let’s take a look at a race I handicapped but did not bet but should have. By the way I changed my Key right before the race for a couple of reasons I will point out. My worksheet shows my earlier work and at race time I changed my pick. The race is DEL5, a turf race.
First the data. This is the data for all the Turf routes in our database of 4178 races with 564. We could look at DEL specifically but I don’t have that many races to look at. We can see that the strongest predictors are the RX ratings. They all get 92 percent of the winners in their top 5. RX1 seems a bit stronger in the top 3 and 4 so we will use RX1.


We see a 14 horse field, later cut down to 7.



We now look at our Leverage Pace screen. Our Key horse presents as #2 in TE, #1 in VDC, #1 Late from New Pace and #1LPR in a pressured late race. (18 speed points). I went back and forth between the 4 and the 10. The 4 had a better 4 score but his VDC was not as good and he was #3 LPR. His leverage scores were not as good.



The 4 looks a little better than the 10 here. The 7, the ML Favorite, does not look good at all in either screen but his past performances are outstanding. A classic companion horse.



Finally, here is the convincer for me upon final look. The 10 gains ground every fraction and is the best in the last two with 0.0 VDC. The final decider.


I think the struggle to pick between the 4 and the 10 was why I held back and did not bet. I wish I had. My bet would have been $1 Exacta key box 10/4,7,8,12 and $.50 Tri Key Box 10/4,7,8,12 which as we noted in race 3 will pay out if the 10 hits the board with any 2 of the other 4.

I hope this answers most of your questions. Play the data. Our data is strong.

[Jake]

"Jake asked what my actual bet would look like for DEL 3. It looked like this $1 Exacta Key Box 7/9,1,2,5 and Tri Key Box 7/1,2,5,9/1,2,5,9 which plays out like this: 7/1,2,5,9/1,2,5,9 or 1,2,5,9/7/1,2,5,9 or 1,2,5,9/1,2,5,9/7 or simply stated this bet wins if the 7 hits the board with any 2 of the 4 companions. I picked the wrong key for the Exacta and lost the Exacta but won the Tri which paid $47".

So, are you recommending betting 3 trifecta keys instead of 2 trifecta keys, if I read this above correctly? And, adding a single exacta key wager, too. Is that your current approach? Thanks.

Jake

[kahunab]

Originally Posted by Jake

"Jake asked what my actual bet would look like for DEL 3. It looked like this $1 Exacta Key Box 7/9,1,2,5 and Tri Key Box 7/1,2,5,9/1,2,5,9 which plays out like this: 7/1,2,5,9/1,2,5,9 or 1,2,5,9/7/1,2,5,9 or 1,2,5,9/1,2,5,9/7 or simply stated this bet wins if the 7 hits the board with any 2 of the 4 companions. I picked the wrong key for the Exacta and lost the Exacta but won the Tri which paid $47".

So, are you recommending betting 3 trifecta keys instead of 2 trifecta keys, if I read this above correctly? And, adding a single exacta key wager, too. Is that your current approach? Thanks.

Jake

Yes

Dick

[dadams6357]

Dick

Statistically you have a large data collection of 564 races to make this statistically significant (maybe).
Problem is, the horses do not know it. I have found when using the models separating by Track and distance (like difference between 5-5.5-6-6.5 etc) can have a big impact on the model. Also the larger the data base does not necessarily improve the model. Brohammer and the Wizard (Tim) only use the last few races. I have found that as little as 4 races provided they are the last 4 may do much better.
In the book that Ted recommended and was used in the development of the system. The author also alluded to the fact that one does not necessarily need a large set of numbers (I understand with your mathematics background ,what your doing makes sense. I hear yah, loud and clear).
That is all I gotta say in regards to the model.
I will try to have more input into the race. But i got to go hang out with the old folks and hear the same story over and over, about old glory days.

Don

[kahunab]

Originally Posted by dadams6357

Dick

I will try to have more input into the race. But i got to go hang out with the old folks and hear the same story over and over, about old glory days.

Don

Don,
Isn't visiting the Good Ol Glory Days great fun? Some things we just have to endure.

Dick

[dadams6357]

Dick
Lol. You got that right.

Don