How did Leverage Pace work at the Breeders Cup?

[Jake]

Dick,
No personal injury was intended in my comments. Only a proper context of sorts. If it seemed misguided, my apologies here.

You started this thread with a chart showing how well the Blue Arrow horses did in the horses in the Breeder’s Cup. I tried to choose my question(s) carefully to you about how and why you chose to process those Blue Arrow’s selections within a pace matchup “trilogy” you have in the Leverage Pace Method. Exactly what you were actually trying to determine with your subsequent steps? That’s the puzzle part of this for me.

One way to frame Leverage Pace Method is as a 3- body physics problem, in handicapping terms. You have a set of 3 Blue Arrow horses which contain at least one horse that should run 1st or 2nd. If you assume that the Blue Arrow designation gives you the first leg-up—and your percentages and composite rating combinations strongly suggest that’s true—what’s next? (I agree about the power of your Blue Arrow horses, that alone is cutting edge handicapping advantage.)

So, let’s what might be the next steps here?

Handicapping for me reduces down to position and energy. The mechanics are the Sartin factors. RDSS is a great set of tools that allow you to sample both position and energy accurately, as long as your pace-line selection is appropriate. This isn’t rocket science, even if it sounds like it at times, but does lend itself to some rigorous logical inference. What you sample (factors) and when you sample (fractions) strongly matter. In fact, that provides the framework to envision likely matchups.

So, my questions which I have attempted to get answered by you, originate from those above premises.

Nothing is meant to be insulting here. I wasn’t offended by your Zoom offer. It just told me that you probably weren’t in a place to have this kind of discussion. The first part of Leverage Pace is brilliant, for handicapping ease, while the latter half of Leverage Pace seems badly ill-purposed to me; my reasons for saying this were stated in my last posts.


As you must know as a longtime educator, direct transmission of knowledge and understanding can often resemble at times a row boat with only one oar, always hard not to go in circles. So, yes, I do take a Zen approach to looking at handicapping. Best wishes to you, Dick. I appreciate all your efforts that have been shared.

Jake

[shoeless]

Jake and Dick

Good discussion about Leverage Pace

Thanks
Jeff