Today's picks, Derby Day.

[Mitch44]

Thanks Tim & Jun.

Mitch

[Mitch44]

Results: Races 2,3,5, 7 10 0ut.
4th 1-4-6 #3 w & paid $ !6.26 Ex. 6 & 4 Pd. $ 42.46, Tri. 6-4-1 Pd. $ 162.60
6th #5 3rd pick won Pd. $8.70
7th 4-2-5-7 # 5 w Pd. $ 15.62
8th 6-9-8-4 # 6 won Pd. $5.14
9th 4-8-6-12 # 4 won pd. $4.40
11th 4-7-6-5 4 6 won pd. $ 5.92
12 posted 15-18-1-19 # 19 won pd. $ 48.24 . ex. 19 & 1 pd. $278.86

Complete Churchill Downs 6 Pick-3 $1.00 2,4,6/2,4,5/6,8,9 $27.00 $103.25 $76.25

I was late getting started this year & was doing races in between. Went over Derby because of so much time between races & nailed it, Had two legs of P3 & 2 legs q/ last 3 races missed the race after the big Derby winner. That one hurt.

I usually do better separating horses but rusty as I don't play much anymore while devoting my time to the stock market.

Mitch 44

[Mitch44]

It's impossible to show ticket before the race. I'm watching odds & looking at payoffs for DD etc. to eliminate low paying combinations. I'm tried that and got shot out , only to lose.

Mitch 44

[winning]

Nice hit Mitch, I also bet the winner and got the exacta.

[The Pook]

Whether its difficult to do or not unless you post bets before post time, results can’t be totally believed. Even if you recite COMPLETED ticket numbers they could be made up. Maybe you won, maybe not.

If you truly want to show your skills without giving anything away simply post bets right before the race. This is the selections forum.

Pook

[cratman]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

12th Ky. Derby
Unlike recent years where the obvious best couple horses towered over the field, this year is full of good horses and like 3 year old's many in here are rounding into form so many unknown factors today. Best course of action is to go for a price.

Normal numbers etc. I have this 15-18-1-19 for the life of me , I can't believe the # 15 is 15-1 & with such a tough field will probably go higher.

Unknown factors follow, your choice:

2 Has improved w/ each race, top unk.30-1
4 Throw out last Baffert & 50-1 B on 17%
7 Foreign 20-1
8 3 pars won 3 of 4 top? 15-1
10 Foreign 30-1 w/o over track
11. On improve, increasing SR, won 3 of 4 routes. 20-1
12. B on 22% Mott 8-1
14. 3.5 pars, no slouch, Baffert 20-1
15. 4 pars , 2 for 3 for Brown 15-1
16. 4 pars, plus 6 SR 30-1
18. + 13 SR, 3 pars 6-1
19. B improvement (1) trainer 29% w/ repeaters where norm is about 17%, w 3of 4 routes. 30-1 which is crazy, good jock & trainer combination B improvement (1) expect more improvement.

Don't take a short price. I'm alive with Oaks & Derby DD

Best of luck on a real challenging card.

Mitch 44

Great job. Thanks for your thoughts. If you would be willing to share would be interested in how your process relates to the stock market. On a broader note, Annie Duke's books, including "How to Decide" are, to me, helpful and interesting.

[atlasaxis]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

It's impossible to show ticket before the race. I'm watching odds & looking at payoffs for DD etc. to eliminate low paying combinations. I'm tried that and got shot out , only to lose.

Mitch 44

I get that odds and probables can change how a ticket gets finalized, that’s part of the game.

But there’s still a difference between adjusting a bet late and being clear about your opinion and structure before the race.

That’s why I respect guys like Ted. He puts his opinion out there before the race, shows his structure and wagering plan, lets the chips fall, and then comes back after and breaks it down. Win or lose, that’s transparency and accountability, and that’s how you actually learn something.

After the fact, it just gets hard to separate what was truly bet from what was part of a bigger list. If you can screenshot software screens, you can screenshot a ticket too, at least after the race. That would go a long way toward making things clearer for everyone.

Not knocking anyone, just think real-time clarity and honest follow-up tells the full story.

Tom

[Mitch44]

Thanks winnings, also glad for you having it.
Mitcch44

[MJS6916]

Congrats to all who scored in this year's Derby.

I couldn't separate the runners well enough to
put money on it this year; like 70% of the Derbys
I've followed.

Ted's guidelines to the Selection forum
(just a reminder)

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...25&postcount=1

Also, I'm not anyone special here.
But based on what I've seen since
I joined.....I have NO REASON to think
anyone is being dishonest about their results;
whether they post them after the fact or not.

Generally, those of us who take the time to handicap,
and spend time on whether to play or pass (and that doesn't take just a few minutes)
don't have enough time to waste on impressing others
with phony results (or phony tickets for that matter ).

If you disagree and have evidence
send me a private message if you must.
I won't discuss this matter any further here.

Mike

[Mitch44]

Pook / Mike:

Your post completely has taken me by surprise, specifically that you question my integrity of my posting of my winning bets. This is after years of posing picks and whole cards demonstrating my consistency to include contests run by you on this site.

Members have sought my advice to include you Mike however some don't have that complete package of discipline and money management of their bankroll. Now that's a large part to being a winner. Discipline and money management. Of course they blame the teacher, that's their own ego and of course it couldn't be them. And not following instructions. I.e. Not being a two horse better such as Matchers. They have to be a one horse better & do it like Bradshaw. They aren't Bradshaw and good luck with that. I have shown them how to win using the program and still be a Matcher. They refuse to adapt and overcome.
I'm sure Twin Spires can prove my tickets, also I have $1,000.00 to bet to prove it to anyone. And to insure payoff Ted can hold the Money.

I have proven naysayers on here wrong on my approaches to races. Weather its workouts, 90 day horses etc. 90 day horses lose 90 % or which I agree with and this site challenged me so for several days in a row , till the point it got ridiculous I posted winners & 2 or 3 winners a day for big prices. Members had nothing to say after I proved. Ditto's for my workout picks, BTW That # 19 had my workout criteria x2.
I also remember a member calling me out on my line picking. In their example I chose line 9, line 1 the obvious didn't get the horse. I believe that was you Mike.

I have nothing to prove on this site, my demonstrated performance over many years says it all . One reason I don't post is jealously, because Non-Winners have to attack you with BS statements and I have better things to do than debate a loser trying to justify their Lost's. Your pissing into a fan debating morons.

Mitch44 "The Monkey"
BTY The Monkey was a happy camper and received additional Treats.

My posts and demonstrating performance say it all