Today's picks, Derby Day.

[atlasaxis]

Even with experience and a solid process, it’s tough for others to apply it if they can’t see how the thinking translates into an actual wager before the race.

The contenders are there, no question. But the part that connects everything is how those contenders get turned into a bet. Without that piece being visible, it’s hard for anyone to really follow along or use it themselves.

That’s really all I’ve been trying to get across.

Tom

[The Pook]

Mitch and Lt1,

Jeez I’ve gotten everyones knickers in a knot! I didn’t make that post to offend anyone. You guys know what you are doing and Mitch you probably had those winning tickets. My point is the only way to know for sure what is going on and to get the complete picture is to post before post. That is a requirement in that forum.

By doing so, not knowing what bets will hit and what won’t, you post everything. A complete picture. There is overhead involved and by not disclosing it people get a false sense of success. We all look like heros when all we post are our winners.

My years of running the contests showed how hard it is for anyone to even be in the black let alone consistently. Yet it looks so easy when people post their winners only.

You both (mostly Tim) can obviously keep doing things your way and of course there is value in it. But Tom and I for two (probably more) wouldn’t mind seeing once in a while the whole process posted before post. Even if you have to sacrifice actual betting and dedicate the day to posting. “Timmy Tuesdays” and “Mitch Mondays”! A series of those would be interesting to all.

This whole thing came about when Tim was complaining about a lack of viewership so I made a couple of suggestions. That’s all.

FWIW I have met Tim at Saratoga once and he is the nicest man. I have talked to Mitch on the phone once and he too is friendly and helpful. You are great guys and probably think you have done enough but come on guys “Timmy Tuesdays and Mitch Mondays”!? How can anyone not like that idea?

And once again posting everything live before a race is run is the best integrity there is.

Pook

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by The Pook

And once again posting everything live before a race is run is the best integrity there is.

Pook

This.

And like Atlasaxis, I did not take the original post as pointing to anyone and saying they were lying. I took the post as it would be a lot more meaningful, especially to people who do not know the poster, if it went up ahead of the race and not after.

It is insanely brave to post your bets ahead of time.

You risk looking like an idiot. And if you are posting for validation, that is obviously a problem.

Like Atlasaxis again, I appreciated Ted putting his ideas out there for every one to look at and think about and learn from. Win or lose the bet, the people who read the post and have a chance to query and think on it, I believe learn more.

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by The Pook

My years of running the contests showed how hard it is for anyone to even be in the black let alone consistently. Yet it looks so easy when people post their winners only.

If you decide to run a contest in the future, I would like to volunteer to make an AI collect and tally the bets for you.

I am learning AI now, so I will probably need another 3 or 4 months to get something like accurate, but it would certainly cut down on management I would think.

I am not working on the AI to handicap. That is the part I love to do. I am trying to get some AI Agents running that will do a lot of the grunt work of tracking bets, tracking profits at tracks, surfaces and distances, keeping records up to date, etc.

Anyways, the contests are usually 4 days, which is more than I can do, but if you decide to do one and want to see if an automated piece of software can do the work, and then you verify, I would be up for providing that piece of software.

[atlasaxis]

Originally Posted by The Pook

Mitch and Lt1,

Jeez I’ve gotten everyones knickers in a knot! I didn’t make that post to offend anyone. You guys know what you are doing and Mitch you probably had those winning tickets. My point is the only way to know for sure what is going on and to get the complete picture is to post before post. That is a requirement in that forum.

By doing so, not knowing what bets will hit and what won’t, you post everything. A complete picture. There is overhead involved and by not disclosing it people get a false sense of success. We all look like heros when all we post are our winners.

My years of running the contests showed how hard it is for anyone to even be in the black let alone consistently. Yet it looks so easy when people post their winners only.

You both (mostly Tim) can obviously keep doing things your way and of course there is value in it. But Tom and I for two (probably more) wouldn’t mind seeing once in a while the whole process posted before post. Even if you have to sacrifice actual betting and dedicate the day to posting. “Timmy Tuesdays” and “Mitch Mondays”! A series of those would be interesting to all.

This whole thing came about when Tim was complaining about a lack of viewership so I made a couple of suggestions. That’s all.

FWIW I have met Tim at Saratoga once and he is the nicest man. I have talked to Mitch on the phone once and he too is friendly and helpful. You are great guys and probably think you have done enough but come on guys “Timmy Tuesdays and Mitch Mondays”!? How can anyone not like that idea?

And once again posting everything live before a race is run is the best integrity there is.

Pook

Pook, I thought you explained that really well.

At least from my side, I never took your original post as questioning anyone’s integrity. It was about getting a clearer, more complete picture of the process.

Posting before the race isn’t about proving anything, it’s about showing the decision in real time, good or bad. That’s what makes it meaningful and something people can actually learn from.

Dan said it well too, it takes a lot to put your bets out there ahead of time. But that’s also why it’s so valuable. You get to see the thinking, not just the result.

I’ll just add this.

Posting results after the race, by itself, doesn’t really teach anything. It shows the outcome, not the decision.

The purpose of this section, at least how I see it, is to help people learn and improve. That comes from seeing the process, especially how a wager is put together before the race and how it holds up afterward, including when it doesn’t work.

Otherwise it becomes very hard to understand what’s actually repeatable versus what just happened to hit that day.

That’s why the examples where the thinking, the wager, and the follow-up are all shown tend to be the most useful.

Just my perspective on what makes something educational.

Tom

[darmar]

Tim & Mitch are two of the most reputable players that I have come across on this site. Both are willing to give great advice and to work with anyone they feel is really trying to improve their handicapping skills and is willing to put in the time and work that is needed to become profitable players of this craft. If their style or presentation doesn't work for you I'm sorry but there are lots of people who are better players from their time spent with them. Their surveys and application posts over the years have proved that they believe that with study and diligent work ethics you and I can become the best 'cappers we can be.
Darryl

[Mr.Pagine]

Mitch,

Please check your private messages.

Thank you

Jon

[atlasaxis]

Originally Posted by darmar

Tim & Mitch are two of the most reputable players that I have come across on this site. Both are willing to give great advice and to work with anyone they feel is really trying to improve their handicapping skills and is willing to put in the time and work that is needed to become profitable players of this craft. If their style or presentation doesn't work for you I'm sorry but there are lots of people who are better players from their time spent with them. Their surveys and application posts over the years have proved that they believe that with study and diligent work ethics you and I can become the best 'cappers we can be.
Darryl

Darryl, I hear what you’re saying and I don’t doubt that both Tim and Mitch have helped a lot of people over the years.

This isn’t really about questioning their experience or their willingness to help. It’s about what’s being shown in real time in this section.

I think we may be talking past each other a bit.

I’m not questioning anyone’s results or integrity. I’m just making a simple distinction.

Contenders are one part of the process. The wager is the decision.

What I’ve been trying to understand is how that decision shows up before the race, not after.

That’s the piece I’ve been trying to highlight. Without seeing that step beforehand, it’s difficult for people to connect the process from start to finish.

I agree with you that improvement takes work and study. I just think showing the full process, including the wager and the follow-up, makes that learning a lot clearer for everyone trying to improve.

Genuine question for anyone who has followed them closely:

What specifically have you been able to apply to your own wagering? And has it translated into improved results or ROI over time?

I ask because seeing contenders and then results afterward is only part of the picture. The part I’m trying to understand is how those contenders consistently turn into profitable wagers.

That’s really where the value is for anyone trying to improve.

Tom

[Mitch44]

Thanks Darrell, greatly appreciated.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Jon I left a message for you on your answering machine.

Mitch44