Belmont at the Big A Late Pick-5

[AwesomeAgain]

NewPace and RDSS continue to show why disciplined race analysis matters. The late Pick 5 at Aqueduct came back strong on a controlled $27 ticket, returning $462.03. Nothing wild, nothing reckless, just using the tools to identify the right contenders, keep the ticket manageable, and let the race structure do the work. These are the kinds of results that reinforce the value of staying patient, trusting the readouts, and avoiding unnecessary over spreading. Tomorrow we play the pick 6 in addition to the pick 5. Have good rest of your week everyone.

[darmar]

Excellent score Brian hoping your great skill carries you to another big hit today as well
Darryl

[dadams6357]

Awesome
That is mighty fine handicapping.
Great job...and keep em comming.
Don

[stormbringer]

NOT MUCH TIME LEFT 28th OF THIS MONTH AND SHE'S GONE.
THAT'S A SONG : SHE'S GONE ? THINK THAT RIGHT. AGAIN GREAT HIT!!!

[AwesomeAgain]

If there is anyway I can help you all.....please hit me up. I am always happy to be of assistance. Thank you all and yes The Big A is going away. Shame I never was able to make it there.

[atlasaxis]

Originally Posted by AwesomeAgain

If there is anyway I can help you all.....please hit me up. I am always happy to be of assistance. Thank you all and yes The Big A is going away. Shame I never was able to make it there.

Brian, congratulations on the score. Since you offered to help, I'd actually be interested in seeing more of the process behind a ticket like this, not just the final result but how you got there. What specifically did NewPace and RDSS show you that led you to those horses? How did you decide where to single, where to spread, and how did you arrive at a $27 ticket instead of a larger or smaller one? To me, that's where the real learning is. The winning ticket shows that something worked, but the thought process behind the ticket is what helps the rest of us understand why it worked and whether we can apply those ideas in our own handicapping. Again, nice hit, and if you're willing to share more of the reasoning behind the ticket, I think a lot of people would find that valuable.

Tom

[AwesomeAgain]

Originally Posted by atlasaxis

Brian, congratulations on the score. Since you offered to help, I'd actually be interested in seeing more of the process behind a ticket like this, not just the final result but how you got there. What specifically did NewPace and RDSS show you that led you to those horses? How did you decide where to single, where to spread, and how did you arrive at a $27 ticket instead of a larger or smaller one? To me, that's where the real learning is. The winning ticket shows that something worked, but the thought process behind the ticket is what helps the rest of us understand why it worked and whether we can apply those ideas in our own handicapping. Again, nice hit, and if you're willing to share more of the reasoning behind the ticket, I think a lot of people would find that valuable.

Tom

Tom, as you know, I am a huge fan of NewPace. The reason is simple. NewPace gives me a way to understand what today’s race is going to demand. It does not begin with “what did this horse do last time?” It begins with “what kind of pace environment is this field likely to create today?” For me, everything starts with the POR number.

When the POR is 0–65, I view that as a soft pace. In that type of race, early speed and front-running types can get comfortable, control position, and dictate the tempo. This is where Prime Power can be very dangerous, because the race may not apply enough pressure to expose those horses. The next area, around POR 66–72, is more of a gray zone. Pressure is present, but it may not be enough to completely knock the front runners out of their comfort zone. That is where I start looking beyond obvious early speed and asking which horses have enough overall ability, balance, and finishing strength to stay effective if the race becomes more demanding.

Once the POR moves into the 73–82 range, I consider that a pressured zone. This is where early-speed types can begin to collapse because too many horses are fighting for position and comfort. The race becomes less about who is fastest early and more about who can survive the pressure and distribute energy efficiently. In those races, I pay much more attention to things like V/DC, late energy, and whether the horse has shown it can stay effective when the pace gets uncomfortable.

That also ties into my previous post about Prime Power versus Profit Line. Prime Power is useful, especially when the pace is soft or honest, because it can reward the horse who looks strongest under more normal conditions. But when the race begins to break down, I find that Profit Line can become more reliable, because it is trying to project order of finish rather than simply reward obvious early dominance.

As far as ticket structure, that is something I have been working on for a few years. I play a lot of horizontals, and with the CAWs involved, I do not want to build tickets that look like smooth probability grids. Their algorithms are already very good at that. So I now preach and practice asymmetry. I am willing to single when the read is solid. I try to compress most legs to one or two horses. In genuinely chaotic races, I may go three deep. If I need to add a fourth horse, that horse has to earn its way onto the ticket. I would rather lose clean with a strong opinion than lose because I built an emotional ticket full of horses I did not really believe in. That is the difference between possibility and probability. A lot of horses are possible. The ticket should be built around the horses that are most probable within today’s race demand.

Brian

[Mitch44]

Nice call and strike Brian, congrats.

Mitch44

[AwesomeAgain]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Nice call and strike Brian, congrats.

Mitch44

Thanks and appreciate that Mitch44.

[atlasaxis]

Originally Posted by AwesomeAgain

Tom, as you know, I am a huge fan of NewPace. The reason is simple. NewPace gives me a way to understand what today’s race is going to demand. It does not begin with “what did this horse do last time?” It begins with “what kind of pace environment is this field likely to create today?” For me, everything starts with the POR number.

When the POR is 0–65, I view that as a soft pace. In that type of race, early speed and front-running types can get comfortable, control position, and dictate the tempo. This is where Prime Power can be very dangerous, because the race may not apply enough pressure to expose those horses. The next area, around POR 66–72, is more of a gray zone. Pressure is present, but it may not be enough to completely knock the front runners out of their comfort zone. That is where I start looking beyond obvious early speed and asking which horses have enough overall ability, balance, and finishing strength to stay effective if the race becomes more demanding.

Once the POR moves into the 73–82 range, I consider that a pressured zone. This is where early-speed types can begin to collapse because too many horses are fighting for position and comfort. The race becomes less about who is fastest early and more about who can survive the pressure and distribute energy efficiently. In those races, I pay much more attention to things like V/DC, late energy, and whether the horse has shown it can stay effective when the pace gets uncomfortable.

That also ties into my previous post about Prime Power versus Profit Line. Prime Power is useful, especially when the pace is soft or honest, because it can reward the horse who looks strongest under more normal conditions. But when the race begins to break down, I find that Profit Line can become more reliable, because it is trying to project order of finish rather than simply reward obvious early dominance.

As far as ticket structure, that is something I have been working on for a few years. I play a lot of horizontals, and with the CAWs involved, I do not want to build tickets that look like smooth probability grids. Their algorithms are already very good at that. So I now preach and practice asymmetry. I am willing to single when the read is solid. I try to compress most legs to one or two horses. In genuinely chaotic races, I may go three deep. If I need to add a fourth horse, that horse has to earn its way onto the ticket. I would rather lose clean with a strong opinion than lose because I built an emotional ticket full of horses I did not really believe in. That is the difference between possibility and probability. A lot of horses are possible. The ticket should be built around the horses that are most probable within today’s race demand.

Brian

Brian,

Thank you for taking the time to write all that out. That's really what I was getting at. Anybody can post a winning ticket after the fact, but seeing how you got there is where the value is. I may not use NewPace or look at races the same way you do, but I can still learn something from understanding how you approached the race, how you looked at the pace environment, and how you decided which horses deserved a spot on the ticket and which ones didn't. I especially liked your comments about possibility versus probability. There are always plenty of horses that could win a race. The hard part is narrowing that down and having enough confidence in your opinion to leave horses off the ticket. Again, I appreciate you taking the time to explain your thinking. Whether someone agrees with it or not, that's the kind of discussion that helps people understand the process instead of just seeing the final score.

Tom