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#11 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Posts: 258
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No need to apologize. I don't mind answering again. This is how we learn and sharpen our skill sets. I'm always available to talk handicapping. I need to win this next race to hit the early pick-5 in New York. Let's cash!
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#12 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Downers Grove, Il
Posts: 498
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Brian.
In regards to your line selection. Let say a race has a POR of 80, High pressure race? Would your line selection be based on the Trackmaster SR Closest to the 80? Regardless of DLR etc? Just trying to clariffy the process your using. I may just mixing apples with oranges. Thanks Don |
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#13 | |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Posts: 258
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Quote:
Great question. I would separate two things right away: POR and TrackMaster Speed Rating are not the same thing. The TrackMaster SR tells me more about the strength or quality of the individual performance. The POR tells me about the pace pressure of the race. So if today’s race has a POR around 80, I would not automatically select the paceline with a TrackMaster SR closest to 80. That would be mixing two different measurements. A practical way to approach it is to open NewPace first and look at which side the race is toggled toward. If the race is showing Unpressured High / Red, look for the horse’s best usable E/EP line from the last 120 days. If the race is showing Pressured Low / Blue, look for the horse’s best usable L/EP line from the last 120 days. After that, I still want the line to make common sense. It should fit today’s surface, distance, class level, recency, and current form. I would not use a stale or unrealistic line just because it gives me the number I want to see. The POR still matters because it tells me how much pressure is in the race. As that POR increases, I have found Profit Line tends to become more reliable than Prime Power. Prime Power can be very useful in softer or more orderly races, but when the pressure rises, the race becomes less about raw ability on paper and more about which horses can survive the projected race shape. I am not picking the line closest to today’s POR by Speed Rating. I am using the NewPace toggle to decide whether I want an early-energy line or a late-energy line, then using POR, Profit Line, Prime Power, and the normal handicapping checks to decide whether the horse is still valid. Hope this helps! Brian |
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