Fractals: What can they tell us?

[kahunab]

I have often wondered about the Fractal ratings on the BL/BL screen, so I decided to analyze how well they predicted Win, Place, Show, Exactas and Trifectas with our almost 4900 race database. (Remember that to standardize our findings we did not adjust lines. All our lines are chosen by Best Perceptor Last 3 Comparable.) Here is the findings in a PDF document that shows all the comparisons. What do you think?

FRL_Surface_Distance_Compact_Comparison.pdf

[shoeless]

What does FRL mean?

Nice presentation

Jeff

[kahunab]

Jeff,
Frl is short for Fractals.

Frl-E is the Early Fractal, Frl-L is the late Fractal and Frl-N is the Neutral Fractal.


Dick

[Ted Craven]

Thanks for the detailed study Dick. An underused set of Factors.

What use do you make of this data? How does it help you refine your contender and betting choices, so far? Do you find it helps narrow betting prospects in ways that other factors (VDC, BLBL, Profitline/PrimePower, Rx3) do not?

Or was this an inquiry so far to see what's what - if there was anything useful?

Ted

[DELMARGRANT]

Nice chart thanks!

[shoeless]

Thanks, Dick, for the explanation and good job

I think Dan could add to this

Jeff

[kahunab]

Ted,
I will try to answer your questions one at a time by breaking them out.

What use do you make of this data?

What prompted the study was I noticed in my handicapping how often a good Frl-E score was a part of the Win and Place horses profile. I still select my contenders with the RMath scores, RX3 and the Leverage Pace scores. When used together these 3 are very powerful contender selectors.



How does it help you refine your contender and betting choices, so far?
I then use the BL/BL screen and New Pace to select my Key horse. Fractal scores are a great help in making my choice for Key and Companion horses.





Do you find it helps narrow betting prospects in ways that other factors (VDC, BLBL, Profitline/PrimePower, Rx3) do not?
No but it does add another handicapping tool to the tool box. Based on the analysis data below, if we know that the exacta is in the top 5 Fractals ~83%, I think that helps us pick our exacta horses. According to this data we can reach the 55% solution by boxing the top 4 Early Fractal horses in Dirt Sprints.



Or was this an inquiry so far to see what's what - if there was anything useful?

I just did the study this last week, so I have not used the data from the study all that much. I do think that the Early Fractal becomes more powerful with cheaper tracks and cheaper horses, but I don’t have the definitive data to prove it.

[shoeless]

Dick

Thanks again for latest post, easy to understand

Jeff

[shoeless]

Dan doesn't use this my mistake

[Ted Craven]

Thanks Dick for the research. I suspect there is even deeper research we can get our AI to do to pinpoint further how Frl-E may be used in ways other factors are not currently - perhaps to both a) confirm existing choices for Key, but also b) add weights to decisions about Companion horses (in the L/P methodology) particularly the 3rd or 4th companion horse which often is the ROI booster in an vertical Key bet (Ex/Tri).

Looking forward to doing more of that deep dive myself, and with you. Especially when we clean up some of those older Exacta and Trifecta mutuel prices (for ROI calculations).

Ted