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| Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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#1 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 148
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Nice Exacta FL 08/12/2026
Finger Lakes race 5 on 08/12/2026 I tossed the 1 despite all the 1's in his line because he fades every time he has a horse run next to him. There was enough speed to make this happen today.So I bet the 4 and 9 to win and bought an exacta 4,9/4,9,5,3 The 1 did stop running when he got pressed and the 4 went on to win and paid $27.24 to win and . The 4,9 exacta paid $144.56 for $2. And Tim (LT) had this one too!
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#2 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 11,371
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Well done Grant.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
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#3 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Maple Ridge, B.C. Canada
Posts: 3,604
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Hi Grant congrats on scoring this real nice ex play which is why we do this. But now I have to take you to task on your perception on the 1 horse. First he clearly is an Early rated horse but your idea that he folds whenever he is pressured is totally wrong. When you look at his PP's you see he has only ONE EXCEPTABLE line to use and that is LINE 6. As a student of Tim G you should know that you only use pacelines at the same distance and surface when they show on the PP's. So using the program selected line was wrong. L6 is just the way the trainer wants him to run and he used the same tactic in today's race but he had to alter his move when he was shut off from coming through on the rail.
The other point I want make is your idea to dismiss the 1 completely and not use him on your wager was ill-advised. There's no way you want him on the front end of the ticket at his odds but on the backside the 4/1 payout would have been $94 still a nice profit on place horse at 3/5. Congrats again but use this as another learning opportunity as to picking the right pace line for the situation that you are looking at. Darryl |
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