Bel 10/25/26

[Jimmy R]

BELMONT 10/25/26 - POST CARD RECAP

Thanks Tim and AwesomeAgain for the encouragement!

R1: #2 Kayla's Komet ($5.00) - 2nd selection

R2: #1 Charlotte's Beach ($4.00) - TOP selection

R3: #4 Lady Rose ($4.04) - TOP selection

R4: #1 Supplier ($37.84) - MISSED (FTS)

R5: #4 Ground Support ($6.32) - 2nd selection

R6: #6 Mo For The King ($5.46) - 3rd selection

R7: #3 Material Girl ($5.12) - TOP selection

R8: #5 Lion Lake ($4.04) - 2nd selection

R9: #7 Juliet On Approach ($33.46) - MISSED

CARD SUMMARY

7 of 9 winners in my top 3 selections.

3 winners were my top selection.
3 winners were my second selection.
1 winner was my third selection.

The winner and runner-up were both among my four posted selections in five races:

R2: 1-2 Exacta $12.92
R3: 4-2 Exacta $6.31
R5: 4-6 Exacta $28.54
R7: 3-4 Exacta $9.37
R8: 5-1 Exacta $9.93

All exacta prices are for $1. These were combinations covered by my posted selections, not necessarily wagers played.

A FEW OBSERVATIONS

R5 was a nice example of looking beyond the raw BL/BL rankings. #4 Ground Support was only 6th by BL/BL score, but the graded-stakes form stood out. I moved her into my second selection, and she won convincingly. My top selection, #6 Snappy Comeback, finished second at 16/1.

R7 was another interesting one. #3 Material Girl was 6th by BL/BL score, but her recent head-to-head form and CSR ranking made her my top selection. She won, with my second selection #4 Liberty's Secret completing the exacta.

R8 #5 Lion Lake was even farther down the original BL/BL rankings, 9th by score. Her recent G2 performance made her difficult to leave out, and she won. My top selection #8 Hark Theangelssing finished third at nearly 12/1.

THE MISSES

R4 #1 Supplier was a first-time starter with no RDSS paceline. She won at nearly 18/1. A reminder of the limitations of numerical rankings in maiden races with unrated horses.

R6 was disappointing. My Best Bet, #4 East Coast Girl, finished fifth after contesting the early pace. My third selection, #6 Mo For The King, came from off the pace to win easily.

R9 #7 Juliet On Approach won at nearly 16/1 despite ranking 8th by BL/BL score. That's one I need to study more closely. The winner and runner-up were both missing from my selections.

TAKEAWAY

Four winners were in the original numerical BL/BL top five. Three more were identified through additional form, class and pace evaluation. The other two winners were missed.

I'm pleased with getting 7 of 9 winners into the top three, especially the adjustments in R5, R7 and R8.

But contender coverage and profitable wagering are two different things. The Best Bet didn't deliver, and the two biggest winners on the card got away.

Still more work to do on first-time starters, pace matchups and identifying live horses outside the top BL/BL rankings.

Trust but verify as Tim says!

Thanks again, guys. On to the next card!