Updated finalized Trifecta Strategy Report

[kahunab]

Gentlemen, I thought it would be appropriate to share my latest work on Leveraging our data studies to finding well paying Trifectas. I posted before my Decision Making flow chart in it’s simpler version. The one attached below is the completed version with my more complete. This version contains the Key findings of our study in order to keep the important data in front of us. On Dirt Sprints for example, we can expect to have 72% of the trifectas in our BL/BL and RX3 Field. I will use the word Field as the description of the top 5 BL/BL AND the top 5 RX3 horses. The usual Field is 5 to 8 horses. I will share some examples a bit later.
So, if we know that we have 72% of the Trifectas in our field, that means we have 28% where we don’t. That is almost 3 out 4 races where we have the Tri but 1 in 4 where we don’t. I know you guys all know this but I felt it important to remind all of us that playing Trifectas means we have to be able to discriminate opportunity races, chaotic races and low expectancy races likely to pay less than our wager. I went 6 of 8 one day and lost money because all by one of my wins paid less than my wagers.


The Chart


As the chart indicates, we start with Step 1 reviewing the lines. In my experience if I have to change lines for 3 or more horses, I am getting into troubled waters and probably creating a Chaos race. Some of you are far better at line selection than I am so your tolerance point will be different than mine.
Step 2 is creating our initial Field by selecting the top 5 BL/BL AND the top 5 RX3 horses. As we said earlier this could mean a field of 5 to 8 horses. This does tell us something if we have a large Field.
Step 3 is where we start handicapping. We handicap down to a Field of 5 using our 7 strongest Pace factors. I also heavily rely on New Pace graphs to help decipher the race, the pace scenario and how much pressure there will be.
Step 4 is selecting our Key horse. That is the horse most likely to hit the board.
Step 5, building your bet. Here is where there is lots of room for deviation. I like to Key Box my 5 horses which costs $18 for a $.50 or 36$ for the $1 Tri but our Key has to hit the Board with 2 of the other 4. But, there are so many other options here that you have to determine what works best for you.
Let’s look at a couple of scenarios. I will use 3 races from Saturday at LRL. First a straight forward race, Race 12. Notice how closely BL/BL matches RX3. Only the 8 horse is a bit of an outlier. I did not need to change any lines. Using the top 5 of each we end up with an initial field of 6. 6,4,13,12,14 and 8. We make non contenders of all the rest.



Notice what happens when we do that. Check out the 8. The 8 no longer qualifies, so at this point, I make him a non-contender or a secondary contender and I am left with 5.



Let’s see what happened. Pretty straight forward and a good result.




A bit more complicated race scenario. Here in Race 11 we have 8 horses, but only the 6 does not qualify for the initial Field. With 7 of 8 qualifying we can have a chaos race and notice that I changed lines on the 3, 6, and 7 horses. This looks like a race to pass.



Good Pass. Not only did it underpay but the 7 didn’t look good enough to include in the top 5 even after giving him a better line.




Last example. LRL10. This too is a very chaotic looking race. We start by eliminating the obvious horses.

Notice the Morning Line of our top 5 contenders and we have the top 3 BL/BL and the top 3 RX3 in our top 5. This could pay huge. But notice the 2 and the 8. The 2 especially, 2nd in the ML, 2nd PL and 2nd BPP. These horses deserve a 2nd look.


Look what happens if you give the 2 a better line. I chose to change it to the 4th line because of a better distance fit and his ML and BPP and PL rankings. One could make an argument against that choice. I used this race an example of a race where BL/BL top 3 and RX3 give you high ML horses and thus a race you may want to figure out for a big payday.



Thanks for working your way through all this. I hope it gives you some food for thought.

Dick

[Jake]

So, Top 5 BL/BL Plus Top 5 RX3 combined group shows an individual capture rate having race winner 92.8% of the time? Is that a correct reading of your
numbers, Dick.

Jake

[kahunab]

Yes that is correct.

Dick

[Jake]

Originally Posted by kahunab

Yes that is correct.

Dick

Wow, that's incredibly strong. Nice summary all the way around. Grand work, Dick.

Jake

[kahunab]

In Panel 3 TP refers to TPR which is Total Pace Rating not Total Points. Don't know how I missed that. Plus I can make it bigger for some of you old guys who can't see so well.
Dick