How to best select Projected Pace in RDSS?

[racer100]

I am going to add my results here for this race where by accident I picked the winner..In no way, shape and form would I pretend that I handicapped this race well according to Matchup2. The selection came in because the speed rating not the MatchUP. With those lines selected IMHO the MatchUp2 would have failed to pick the winner in this race. MatchUP would have picked #4 which did not even show. Perhaps somebody can handicap it according to Matchup2 steps and tell me what I did wrong..it would be greatly appreciated.

[racer100]

Results for GP 030407 race #2

[racer100]

Original Screen at the bottom for the MatchUp selections.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by racer100

Here is my projected line screen now. I chose Horse #5 3rd line as my paceline for this race. It is 22.3 44.4.
I tried to choose the best paceline at GP and at the same distance as much as possible. Also I noticed that in the Adjustment screen the adjusted times were way off from horses coming from other courses at GP as well as from other tracks. Does it seem right to you or I need to go back to the drawing board?

Thanks

Racer,
here is a link
http://scott.asmallorange.com/~binde...ead.php?t=1158

In post #2 of the thread download Jim's attachment that he made for us here ok?

While "projecting pace" is the third step I STRONGLY suggest that you start with the FIRST step. Take a LONG and SLOW look at that. Practice applying that step to a few dozen races.

Then a WEEK or so later move to the second step and repeat the process. Now incorporate your first TWO steps in the working of races.

Then move to the third step. Etc Etc

I am only doing EXACTLY what Jim did with me when he was teaching me HIS way of matching Racer. He spent SIX weeks of FOCUSED work on the 5 step approach. SIX WEEKS.

Then we moved on to other stuff.

FORGET all this other "closest to the lead" stuff for NOW. That comes MUCH later and you WILL be lost if you jump ahead man.

Once again you do NOT need to know ANY of this stuff to WIN or to use RDSS.

Having said that I would strongly suggest NOT betting real money on anything matchup related until at LEAST SIX WEEKS of FOCUSED study on the 5 step approach is COMPLETE.

Richie
PS - I HATE the term "guru". I am just "Richie".

[racer100]

Thanks for the link Richie but that is the same information that is inside MatchUP2 which I have bought and read many times. I totally understand starting at step No. 1, however if you'd be kind enough to provide some criticism to the lines I selected and what I did wrong..I can at least have a good start there rather than going on the wrong path. If the race is not MatchUP selectable, lets move on to bigger and better things. No approach is infallible. But if it is winnable with MatchUP, why not learn from my mistakes?

Originally Posted by RichieP

Racer,
here is a link
http://scott.asmallorange.com/~binde...ead.php?t=1158

In post #2 of the thread download Jim's attachment that he made for us here ok?

While "projecting pace" is the third step I STRONGLY suggest that you start with the FIRST step. Take a LONG and SLOW look at that. Practice applying that step to a few dozen races.

Then a WEEK or so later move to the second step and repeat the process. Now incorporate your first TWO steps in the working of races.

Then move to the third step. Etc Etc

I am only doing EXACTLY what Jim did with me when he was teaching me HIS way of matching Racer. He spent SIX weeks of FOCUSED work on the 5 step approach. SIX WEEKS.

Then we moved on to other stuff.

FORGET all this other "closest to the lead" stuff for NOW. That comes MUCH later and you WILL be lost if you jump ahead man.

Once again you do NOT need to know ANY of this stuff to WIN or to use RDSS.

Having said that I would strongly suggest NOT betting real money on anything matchup related until at LEAST SIX WEEKS of FOCUSED study on the 5 step approach is COMPLETE.

Richie
PS - I HATE the term "guru". I am just "Richie".

[RichieP]

Racer
I would select the following lines to project a pace. I would NOT use those 5f lines on the 6 horse as he has not been able to duplicate them going longer

Mine would be a very CONSERVATIVE proj pace remembering there are layoff issues and shipper issues

1c - 22.3 - horse 6 - line 5
2c - 45.8 - horse 6 - line 5
sc - 58.7 - horse 3 - line 3
ft - 111.3 - horse 3 - line 3

[racer100]

I originally selected the 3rd line at 6F for Horse #6. Regardless, here we go..I have it set up with the Slow horses eliminated according to your proj. paceline. It seems from this that Horse #1 is losing ground and cannot finish the deal. Would one pick Horse #1 in this arrangement? Or #5? Regardless you would have the quinella. For sure it should be the #2 selection but not #1 IMHO. Please comment and many thanks for your input on this tough race.

Originally Posted by RichieP

Racer
I would select the following lines to project a pace. I would NOT use those 5f lines on the 6 horse as he has not been able to duplicate them going longer

Mine would be a very CONSERVATIVE proj pace remembering there are layoff issues and shipper issues

1c - 22.3 - horse 6 - line 5
2c - 45.8 - horse 6 - line 5
sc - 58.7 - horse 3 - line 3
ft - 111.3 - horse 3 - line 3

[shoeless]

Racer,Excuse me for butting in this topic but in my opinion I wouldnt have gone to the 3rd race back on the 5.There was no evidence from his last 2 races that he could run back to that race.I had the winner in this race and as Richie has told me over and over when doing the match up you are looking for the winner and more then likely will throw out the place horse.Jeff

[VoodooFan]

Originally Posted by RichieP

While "projecting pace" is the third step I STRONGLY suggest that you start with the FIRST step. Take a LONG and SLOW look at that. Practice applying that step to a few dozen races.
Richie
PS - I HATE the term "guru". I am just "Richie".

1. This process sounds interesting. Did you simply look thru the form for races where there was Tandem's, then either 1) Eliminated the horse's within the Tandem that did not qualify , and 2) Eliminate the entire Tandem and 3) Concluded that the prevailing Tandem had the winner or the 1 or 2 top contenders in the race and checked the results to see were they where they was supposed to be or predicted influence of the race, without completely handicapping the race.
2. "1. Look at the Tandem horse's, if the winner's time for the Tandem was five fifths (1 full second) slower than today's pace at both the second call and finish then eliminate all of the horses in that Tandem."------>Perhaps I am not understanding this. The "winners" time can only be the Final time unless he was a wire-to-wire winner.......not sure on how you compare "onlythe Final time of the Tandem with both the 2nd call and Final of the projected pace. Maybe I'm having an annurism studying so hard.