Rich and Bill Race 032207

[admin]

Originally Posted by froggy

Bill,

You were right in your decisions on the 5th at SA yesterday.
I have gone over the race about 30 times to see what I could learn or unlearn.

1.
I finally found the little figures at the upper right hand corner of each horses screen (EPS,R). I think that you are right in doing APV, I haven't been doing it.

2.
I am finding that when Preceptor II is used for the hides that it works better than going to the energy screen. (About 8% more winners in the top two.)

3.
Eliminate the two lowest EPS the 2 and 4.
Use Preceptor II and hide the 7, 8, and 9.

4.
We are now down to the 5, 1, 6, 3. In that order.

5.
Now I have just proved that I can get the winner the day after the race.
I plan to try it ahead of time today.

Thanks for the lesson Bill. I needed it.

Froggy

Hi froggy
what your doing seems like a solid plan
I suppose I could save a little trouble and use the Earnings Per Start
numbers instead of calculating the APV CR
but in my head The work of looking at the W P S and earnings in the current and past year are giving nme more of a feel for each horse

looking at a figure of $1234 EPS is OK
but entering o wins 6 seconds 2 thirds and earnings of $21000
in a race today with a purse value of $47000 tells me this horse might
be in trouble with a .64 APV and 90 CR
Does that make sense??

Anyway as long as you get the winner
Thats the cool thing
GS
Bill

[shoeless]

Bill,As you have told me over and over NEVER COMPARE PROGRAMS.I agree with Richie stick to doing what you do best.Just because a program is new it doesnt make it any better.Jeff

[froggy]

Bill,

In doing research on APV I went to the only source that I have, the new yellow manual.

Page 28

AVERAGE PURSE VALUE

WIN: CHOICE #1 -- 12% #2 -- 26% # 3 -- 31% TOP 3 -- 69%

EARNINGS PER START

CHOICE #1 -- 23% #2 -- 21% # 3 -- 20% TOP 3 -- 64%

% OF FINISHES IN THE MONEY

CHOICE #1 -- 28% #2 -- 20% # 3 -- 16% TOP 3 -- 64%

"So, while, ironically, APV produces the most winners in the top 3, it is the least effective barometer of class of the three in the prime area of first choice."

Now I don't know what all this means. Is this third choice the program choice? I intend to find out.

The more I learn the less I know.

Froggy

PS.
How do I get Pace and Cap to change the time on my posts. I live in Arizona where we don't screw around with mother nature and change our clocks every few months so that all our cactus can have more sunlight to help them grow.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by admin

Hi Ted
with respect I have a problem with that

Ok so spec 160 and Rdss and Val2006 all agree on the $25.00 winner
but in todays race at Turfway
Rdss and Val2006 do not agree
RDSS has the 6 slightly over the 3 and 5
Val2006 has the 3 bigger over the 6 and the 1 over the 5
Not that big a deal but its this variation that
freaks me out I would think it would always be the same
or always different am I nuts???
l

Bill,

I confess I do not know, just at the moment, for any given race including this one, what specifically accounts for the differences between Spec160 and Val2006, but by the time I'm done incorporating the Validator compatibility, I will in detail. Variable beaten lengths are the biggest factor, different formulae for projection and extraction are another (though not applicable here), differences in stating the TrackMastrer SR. Remember that BL/BL comes from the Primary Line Score, and a difference of 1 rank for a couple of factors can result in several points cumulative difference in PLS, even though the underlying factor values ranked, say #1 and #2 may be separated only by a very small difference.

I will report further when I get to that part of the project shortly.

Ted

[admin]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Bill,

I confess I do not know, just at the moment, for any given race including this one, what specifically accounts for the differences between Spec160 and Val2006, but by the time I'm done incorporating the Validator compatibility, I will in detail. Variable beaten lengths are the biggest factor, different formulae for projection and extraction are another (though not applicable here), differences in stating the TrackMastrer SR. Remember that BL/BL comes from the Primary Line Score, and a difference of 1 rank for a couple of factors can result in several points cumulative difference in PLS, even though the underlying factor values ranked, say #1 and #2 may be separated only by a very small difference.

I will report further when I get to that part of the project shortly.

Ted

Thanks Ted
Lol My lasy question in my post was Am I nuts ??
and You start off - I confess I do not know

Anyway I'm glad your working so hard to get every thing on the same page

Thanks Bill