my new approach to the races - Pace and Cap

Forego · 05-24-2007, 09:23 AM

i was getting very inconsistent results after a while using thoromation.i also had been reading a lot of the matchup posts and was intrigued to say the least.

i contacted richie about a month ago away from the board.he asked if i wanted to use raw times. i honestly told him no that it was too much work.

he spent 4 nights on the phone with me explaining 2 race types.

first one is when there are at least 2 preferably 3 early horses present. he said to identify these races and then simply throw all the early one's out of consideration. then find the horses remaining who make moves visually and close when they run well. pick a paceline for each of these guys and using the trackmaster download and val4 (which he gave me) bet the strongest horses readout wise without wagercapping. he said it was very important to be able to identify bets before the odds were known.

this race style was present in woodbine's 4th race i posted up in selections area last night.the 1,4,7 were the early horses. threw them all out. the visual moving contenders were 2,3,5,6. I entered lines 1,1,3,3 respectively and the 6 and 5 came up extremely strong. result was most satisfying to say the least.

2nd race type is one he explained where early is going to be advantaged. either a horse looks like he might wire the field or there is an early horse present who seems to tire on his own leaving the race win to the horse sitting right behind him or very close by. these races he said to reverse the contender procedure and keep the early plus any up close position guys and do not put in any off the pace type horses. enter the 2,3 or 4 early style contenders and again identify and bet the strongest readouts without regards for odds. this example was sunday at charlestown. the 10th race produced a very nice win mutual when the 9 horse crossed the wire first at over 6/1.

my contenders per race are averaging about 4.

it is not just the races i am betting but possibly more important the races i am not betting that is helping me have an roi that right now is bordering on being obscene.

with all sincerity i do not know why he is not doing this because he has done races with me and it seems almost effortless for him to identify the contenders. he gave me hours of his time to teach me this setup and i am grateful.

bill has told me a couple of folks were trying to contact me privately. i do not wish to share my email address or the like. i am a private man and hope folks will respect that. that is the reason for this post. to explain what i am doing.

the outline above is exactly what i am doing at the races for the last 3 weeks.
i have left nothing out.folks share freely here so this is my turn.

richie thank you so much for helping me and bill for making this all happen.

F.B.

Forego · 05-24-2007, 10:56 AM

winner is the 6 at 21.70
place is the 5
exacta 75.20

as posted last night in selections area.

froggy · 05-24-2007, 03:04 PM

FOEGO SAYS

Quote:

it is not just the races i am betting but possibly more important the races i am not betting that is helping me have an roi that right now is bordering on being obscene.

I like this

shoeless · 05-24-2007, 05:21 PM

Forego,Thanks for sharing that's a very interesting concept and Richie is really a great teacher.The Shoe

Forego · 05-25-2007, 08:11 AM

shoeless give it a try at charlestown. you can paper bet at first. you will like what you see. thank you for your help with the thoromation program months back. it is greatly appreciated.

shoeless · 05-25-2007, 04:19 PM

Forego thanks for your help as well.Shoeless

partsnut · 05-25-2007, 06:34 PM

Forego, whatever Ritchie taught you is very valuable.
He's a great teacher.

You certainly made great use of it.
Your one of the few free thinkers that
will share with others. That's very admiirable.

You were good before but better now.

ray lopez · 05-26-2007, 04:16 PM

Forego,glad you're doing great on your new approach and please keep us
posted on how you're doing.
I am also testing the odds line of Bottom Line/Betting Line,going through my
records...I've found out that if i double the posted odds on the BL/BL, and
use it as the new odds line...and compare it to the track odds (i used the
3 min.before post) and bet the overlays on the top 4,my profits were a lot
higher than regular dutching...I use the Morning Liner Ultimate money
management program (I think Dave Shwartz of Horse Street has a good one,
too)...
I wonder if any of you guys have tried this or another way of doing it...

ray lopez · 05-26-2007, 04:57 PM

On my test,i used a 20% fractional Kelly ...i don't feel comfortable going
higher because of the fear of tapping out...I ran it through the 947 races
i bet last year and the profits were really good (much higher than i made,
because i was using the regular dutch)...although my win percentage went
down,but the higher mutuels made up for it...
I would like to hear from players using the Horse Market Investing approach
by Dave Schwartz or anyone using another money management program...
thanks...

Forego · 05-27-2007, 02:32 PM

ray i am a part time player who uses no money management unless 100% of pocket is mm. i can not help there.

this is a redboard. last night at mnr there was a race with 3 horses that have to had the lead. removing them and entering lines for the off the pace types only the 5 horse came tops on val4 and got up for the win at 14/1. the only race on the card that fit this structure.

i am off to the family picnic.
F.B.

05-24-2007, 09:23 AM	#1
Forego Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 639	my new approach to the races i was getting very inconsistent results after a while using thoromation.i also had been reading a lot of the matchup posts and was intrigued to say the least. i contacted richie about a month ago away from the board.he asked if i wanted to use raw times. i honestly told him no that it was too much work. he spent 4 nights on the phone with me explaining 2 race types. first one is when there are at least 2 preferably 3 early horses present. he said to identify these races and then simply throw all the early one's out of consideration. then find the horses remaining who make moves visually and close when they run well. pick a paceline for each of these guys and using the trackmaster download and val4 (which he gave me) bet the strongest horses readout wise without wagercapping. he said it was very important to be able to identify bets before the odds were known. this race style was present in woodbine's 4th race i posted up in selections area last night.the 1,4,7 were the early horses. threw them all out. the visual moving contenders were 2,3,5,6. I entered lines 1,1,3,3 respectively and the 6 and 5 came up extremely strong. result was most satisfying to say the least. 2nd race type is one he explained where early is going to be advantaged. either a horse looks like he might wire the field or there is an early horse present who seems to tire on his own leaving the race win to the horse sitting right behind him or very close by. these races he said to reverse the contender procedure and keep the early plus any up close position guys and do not put in any off the pace type horses. enter the 2,3 or 4 early style contenders and again identify and bet the strongest readouts without regards for odds. this example was sunday at charlestown. the 10th race produced a very nice win mutual when the 9 horse crossed the wire first at over 6/1. my contenders per race are averaging about 4. it is not just the races i am betting but possibly more important the races i am not betting that is helping me have an roi that right now is bordering on being obscene. with all sincerity i do not know why he is not doing this because he has done races with me and it seems almost effortless for him to identify the contenders. he gave me hours of his time to teach me this setup and i am grateful. bill has told me a couple of folks were trying to contact me privately. i do not wish to share my email address or the like. i am a private man and hope folks will respect that. that is the reason for this post. to explain what i am doing. the outline above is exactly what i am doing at the races for the last 3 weeks. i have left nothing out.folks share freely here so this is my turn. richie thank you so much for helping me and bill for making this all happen. F.B. __________________ don't hate in 2008

05-24-2007, 10:56 AM	#2
Forego Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 639	val4 winner is the 6 at 21.70 place is the 5 exacta 75.20 as posted last night in selections area. Attached Images __________________ don't hate in 2008

05-25-2007, 08:11 AM	#5
Forego Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 639	shoeless give it a try at charlestown. you can paper bet at first. you will like what you see. thank you for your help with the thoromation program months back. it is greatly appreciated. __________________ don't hate in 2008

05-27-2007, 02:32 PM	#10
Forego Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 639	ray i am a part time player who uses no money management unless 100% of pocket is mm. i can not help there. this is a redboard. last night at mnr there was a race with 3 horses that have to had the lead. removing them and entering lines for the off the pace types only the 5 horse came tops on val4 and got up for the win at 14/1. the only race on the card that fit this structure. i am off to the family picnic. F.B. __________________ don't hate in 2008

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05-24-2007, 05:21 PM	#4
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,656	Forego,Thanks for sharing that's a very interesting concept and Richie is really a great teacher.The Shoe

05-25-2007, 04:19 PM	#6
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,656	Forego thanks for your help as well.Shoeless

05-25-2007, 06:34 PM	#7
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	Forego, whatever Ritchie taught you is very valuable. He's a great teacher. You certainly made great use of it. Your one of the few free thinkers that will share with others. That's very admiirable. You were good before but better now.

05-26-2007, 04:16 PM	#8
ray lopez Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,138	Forego,glad you're doing great on your new approach and please keep us posted on how you're doing. I am also testing the odds line of Bottom Line/Betting Line,going through my records...I've found out that if i double the posted odds on the BL/BL, and use it as the new odds line...and compare it to the track odds (i used the 3 min.before post) and bet the overlays on the top 4,my profits were a lot higher than regular dutching...I use the Morning Liner Ultimate money management program (I think Dave Shwartz of Horse Street has a good one, too)... I wonder if any of you guys have tried this or another way of doing it...

05-26-2007, 04:57 PM	#9
ray lopez Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,138	On my test,i used a 20% fractional Kelly ...i don't feel comfortable going higher because of the fear of tapping out...I ran it through the 947 races i bet last year and the profits were really good (much higher than i made, because i was using the regular dutch)...although my win percentage went down,but the higher mutuels made up for it... I would like to hear from players using the Horse Market Investing approach by Dave Schwartz or anyone using another money management program... thanks...