Question

[Ted Craven]

Robert, Houndog,

Actually, although it would be a lot of work (and definitely something for the future), soon after I digested the adjustment process Doc had created, it occurred to me that it could in fact be a better choice to adjust all lines to today's track, rather than to Sartin Downs -simply by the device of identifying the ITV for today's track/surface/distance and calling it 0, then expressing all the other ITVs as differentials from that 0 ITV. By this means, times for horses with PP lines from today's track would appear more normal when adjusted (i.e. the only remaining adjustments would be DTV and distance equalizations). There should be no relative differences in factor rankings and ultimate predictivity (though the actual numbers ranked would differ).

But I had to deliver something which could be proven to function as Val and Spec have done (for credentials). Once those credentials are established, we can start to take the steps into the future I'd like to think Doc would have done (and if we're lucky, may give guidance on, going forward).

Ted

[shoeless]

Ted,That sounds great if it ever could be done.Jeff

[socantra]

Ted,

Thanks for the coverage of Sartin Downs. I've always loved that track and thought it was a brilliant solution for the problems they faced at the time. I have used a Timex/Sinclair, and its computing power was definitely underwhelming. Even if you could get the little power adapter to work, the picture tended to come and go. I love those references to it in the yellow manual.

Brohammer's 1st edition talks about using hand calculators and equalizing to the track you are playing. It makes a lot of sense when you are only playing Southern California and have few shippers.

When the Sartin Methodology spread out nationwide a few years earlier, adjusting to today's track was not feasible on the toy computers of the era. Enter Sartin Downs. When you don't have all the tools you need, use the tools you have.

I would be very curious as to whether you would gain anything with adjusting to today's track, or just add another layer of adjustment and create more error. Doc seemed to have a marvelous ability to balance pulling adjustments out of the air and then minimizing harmful effect those adjustrments might have.

I think it is great advice to get familiar with Sartin Downs from the old manuals. To a great extent, every race we handicap is still being run there.

Dick

[socantra]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

as I said, I need to write another article (in the next few days) about what I've come to understand about TrackMaster's general process for generating pars, and ITVs and DTVs and Class Ratings and Speed Ratings during the early stages of new racing surfaces (and what of all that we make use of and what we ignore).

Ted

I am officially holding my breath, and WILL hold your feet to the fire.

Dick

[davesnew]

Ted,
What do you think polytracks pacelines do to Sartin Downs? Because poly isn't going away and limited at this point, would it be better to adjust pacelines to today's races? Whichever you choose it won't be easy.
Dave

[socantra]

Originally Posted by davesnew

Ted,
What do you think polytracks pacelines do to Sartin Downs? Because poly isn't going away and limited at this point, would it be better to adjust pacelines to today's races? Whichever you choose it won't be easy.
Dave

Polytrack may not be going away, but at this point it has shown no consistancy at all from track to track. Places like Woodbine have shown little effect, while tracks like Keeneland have had an extremely dramatic effect.

At no place do they seem to feel they've gotten it right, so I don't see how we can start making major adjustments to Sartin Downs or anywhere else.

My general feeling is that it is hard to get a start on, but if you don't use all your energy early, you can run forever. The main complaint I've heard from people who've followed it closely is a lack of consistency on each individual track.

I came up with equitrack at Remington Park in the late 80's and early 90's. It never did develop a consistent profile in the four or so years they raced on it. It didn't freeze in the winner, but formed ice crystals between the polyester chunks and got very skittish, so they had to cancel anyway. In the summer, it was lightning fast until it got too hot and turned into goo that stuck to the horses hooves. It turned out that it did not hold up that well over the increased use in this country and the temprature extremes and required considerably more expensive maintenance than a normal dirt surface and more frequent replacement.

Maybe they can make it work this time. I wish them luck. It also may still go away after awhile if it becomes more expensive and doesn't show consistent safety benefits. More people will look stupid this time, but bottom line is bottom line, and executives can be replaced.

Dick