nice basic wagercapping example - Page 3 - Pace and Cap

Fast4522 · 11-03-2007, 06:06 PM

Wager capping is a very effective way of beating bad track varients, but a very ineffective way of beating the chalk.
A dated concept that holds little merit today.

shoeless · 11-03-2007, 11:12 PM

Hey Fast we are finally agree on something,maybe it's my old age setting in.Jeff

Fast4522 · 11-04-2007, 07:00 AM

Jeff,
It is very hard to get a group of folks or a large room full of them to agree on anything, just look at our congress.

RichieP · 11-04-2007, 10:50 AM

Going to what Steve and Jeff were talking about regarding depressed win prices in today's racing:

Here are the last 2 cards each at Churchill and Delta Downs.I focus on these 2 because they have full fields and are running meets that just opened. Usually a nice combo for causing chaos and big mutuals.

What is shown are the ml odds and then the actual win price. Couple of races are omitted because of large # of first time starters and a couple of others you will not see the ml odds because the winner did not make my final grade.

28 races - You be the judge in this albeit small sample

admin · 11-04-2007, 10:58 AM

Hello Rich

It looks to me like the shoter price m/l horse tend to go down a little
the mid level - (less than 5/1 but more than 5/2)are consistan but that over 5/1 are paying very good I love that 5/1 to $40.00 on and others

admin · 11-04-2007, 11:01 AM

Hi Rich My $28.00 winner at finger lakes the winner # 5 Diamond
was 6/1 ML

RichieP · 11-04-2007, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by admin

Hello Rich

It looks to me like the shoter price m/l horse tend to go down a little
the mid level - (less than 5/1 but more than 5/2)are consistan but that over 5/1 are paying very good I love that 5/1 to $40.00 on and others

Now here are the same races lined up by V/DC tier. If they line up the 38.00 winner is tier 1 while the 40.00 win is in the now infamous tier 3

Only TWO horses(of the winners in the final mix) were NOT in the top 3 V/DC tiers. Two out of 24 winners in final mix that won. Pretty powerful "qualifying" corollary to me.

admin · 11-04-2007, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP

Now here are the same races lined up by V/DC tier. If they line up the 38.00 winner is tier 1 while the 40.00 win is in the now infamous tier 3

Only TWO horses(of the winners in the final mix) were NOT in the top 3 V/DC tiers. Two out of 24 winners in final mix that won. Pretty powerful "qualifying" corollary to me.

As our friend Aline said in the smt audio clips

"I bet him because of the corollies"

Two powerfull corollarys Rich
VDC and going off odds
Thats wagercapping Thank you Rich for making this presentation
it ties up many points

GS
today
Bill

shoeless · 11-04-2007, 11:23 AM

The main point I was TRYING to make is that Doc AT FIRST didnt like wagercapping.Also THERE IS NO WAY TO PREDICT what horses will pay now as to years past.If someone is able to do this they should be in the stock market not racing.Jeff

alydar_ David · 11-04-2007, 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless

The main point I was TRYING to make is that Doc AT FIRST didnt like wagercapping.Also THERE IS NO WAY TO PREDICT what horses will pay now as to years past.If someone is able to do this they should be in the stock market not racing.Jeff

You want a locked-in price?

Use a betting exchange. Problem solved.

11-03-2007, 06:06 PM	#21
Fast4522 Former member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Gun Country Posts: 363	Wager capping is a very effective way of beating bad track varients, but a very ineffective way of beating the chalk. A dated concept that holds little merit today. Last edited by Fast4522; 11-03-2007 at 06:09 PM.

11-04-2007, 10:50 AM	#24
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Are win prices depressed? Going to what Steve and Jeff were talking about regarding depressed win prices in today's racing: Here are the last 2 cards each at Churchill and Delta Downs.I focus on these 2 because they have full fields and are running meets that just opened. Usually a nice combo for causing chaos and big mutuals. What is shown are the ml odds and then the actual win price. Couple of races are omitted because of large # of first time starters and a couple of others you will not see the ml odds because the winner did not make my final grade. 28 races - You be the judge in this albeit small sample Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

11-04-2007, 10:58 AM	#25
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	look Hello Rich It looks to me like the shoter price m/l horse tend to go down a little the mid level - (less than 5/1 but more than 5/2)are consistan but that over 5/1 are paying very good I love that 5/1 to $40.00 on and others

11-04-2007, 11:01 AM	#26
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	6/1 Hi Rich My $28.00 winner at finger lakes the winner # 5 Diamond was 6/1 ML Attached Images

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11-03-2007, 11:12 PM	#22
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,660	Hey Fast we are finally agree on something,maybe it's my old age setting in.Jeff

11-04-2007, 07:00 AM	#23
Fast4522 Former member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Gun Country Posts: 363	Jeff, It is very hard to get a group of folks or a large room full of them to agree on anything, just look at our congress.

11-04-2007, 11:23 AM	#29
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,660	The main point I was TRYING to make is that Doc AT FIRST didnt like wagercapping.Also THERE IS NO WAY TO PREDICT what horses will pay now as to years past.If someone is able to do this they should be in the stock market not racing.Jeff