Top Horse is "best" - Myth??

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by lbj

Richie,
no rules. If you select the best of the last 3 or 4 races, doesn't tell me nothing if the horse has the best race in line 10, run 7 months ago. That is my line. It took me quite a while understanding this concept.
Why the Top horse doesn't win as often as we wish?

1st. rank BL/BL 25.7 win% bet $132 won $132.2
2nd rank BL/BL 22.7 win% bet $132 won $263.6
3th rank BL/BL 16.6 win% bet $132 won $136.8
1st rank EPR 21.2 win% bet $132 won 130.90
1st rank LPR 27.2 win% bet $132 won 272.90

your numbers clealry indicate to bet 2nd. rank in BL/BL and 1st. rank in LPR.
Should I assume that the pace line selections for the 1st. 3th. rank Bl/BL and EPR are incorrect?
Pino

Excellent work Pino!
Now is the top horse the "BEST" ??? The top ranked horse also has the highest win %. Is he REALLY "best"??

That is the whole purpose of showing this Pino ok? To enlighten folks to the fact that VALUE is found in other spots beside #1.

Now to the small sample I will tell you exactly what will happen when the race sample increases. When this gets to 500 races Tier 3 win % will increase. Tier 2 will decrease a bit and the high paying winners will DOMINATE tiers 2 and 3.

Tier 1 will continue to be "best" as far as selecting winners at ANY price.Unfortunatley the mutuals paid will be severely depressed in comparison
Guaranteed.