Dream Race Velocity Pars

[socantra]

Originally Posted by admin

Hello Dick

No .. It was the file.. I just replaced it
Its working now

Bill

Thanks Bill,

The library is (as always) priceless. I wandered in this afternoon and wound up spending a couple of hours there.

Many, many thanks for providing the home for it and for all of us.

Dick...

[CEW]

Greetings Guys...........

I think we've all been down the "pars" route (!!), either for contender purposes or to adjust pacelines. Or both. My opinion is that pars almost have the opposite effect on paceline adjustments -making things less clear. A lot of winners win because they exceed par in some portion of the race. And when you adjust to those pars, you slow down that very element.

Like most of you, I've spent many late nights trying to satisfy in my mind just what the most effective way is in dealing with these questions. Or put another way, I had to verify for myself that Howard's concepts were they way to go. And the basic concept (in the Par articles mentioned above) is that horses don't run to man made pars, they run based on the today's contention and today's energy level. And every race is different. So after getting contenders and pacelines, we then adjust using the dream race of the given contenders (pacelines). And if done correctly, that will reveal who has the best chance to win.

The next question would be "how do I do it? " But really, that whole process is in most Sartin programs starting back with Energy and maybe earlier.

Your thoughts....??

Chuck

[CEW]

Greetings Guys...........

I think we've all been down the "pars" route (!!), either for contender purposes or to adjust pacelines. Or both. My opinion is that pars almost have the opposite effect on paceline adjustments -making things less clear. A lot of winners win because they exceed par in some portion of the race. And when you adjust to those pars, you slow down that very element.

Like most of you, I've spent many late nights trying to satisfy in my mind just what the most effective way is in dealing with these questions. Or put another way, I had to verify for myself that Howard's concepts were they way to go. And the basic concept (in the Par articles mentioned above) is that horses don't run to man made pars, they run based on the today's contention and today's energy level. And every race is different. So after getting contenders and pacelines, we then adjust using the dream race of the given contenders and with total energy. And if done correctly, that will reveal who has the best chance to win.

The next question would be "how do I do it? " But really, that whole process is in most Sartin programs starting back with Energy and maybe earlier.

Your thoughts....??

Chuck

[mufasa]

[quote] No mas.

I use raw data when matching from pp's using all the lines shown to evaluate horses.

I accept and use TM data when using program to "software match".

Very simple. Very economical on the mind. Leaves room to focus on the really important stuff needed to win. [end of quote]

Rich:

When you say that you use raw/original times there is no consideration of track to track, or track variant adjustments? I know that I rather do it your way but often find myself trying to adjust since when I use the Trackmaster adjusted times there is such a difference with the resulting pace lines and their rankings/ratings. I find myself trying to adjust the raw times somewhat to get me closer to what the Trackmaster adjusted times are showing and this never really works out or I never feel comfortable with the results.

I think I am making a fatal mistake of trying to match a race using both what the Trackmaster adjustments are giving me and my attempts at manipulating raw times. I am assuming that when you match a race you are either going with the software match or just with the raw data match but never mixing the two.

You need to cap the way that you feel most comfortable and for me that is with pencil and paper with just some help from the RDSS program. I just have not found the perfect match to date. I cap as though I am going to the track with expected scratches so I need to remain flexible. Even while home over the winter and capping I still print the card I am playing. This way my process for handicapping remains consistent throughout and I am ready for the spring/summer/fall of going to the track.

Any advice on this matter especially as to the Match Up would be appreciated, especially as to utilizing just raw times. Perhaps this could be a subject over at the Match Up area---how best to match just using raw times and the entire past performances.

Thanks,

Robert

[gl45]

from the horse mouth:
"most of the clients are adjustment happy...."
MU doesn't require any adjustements. No track to track, no variants, no slop, no mud, no trainers, no jocks, no class. No RULES
lbj

[mufasa]

Originally Posted by lbj

from the horse mouth:
"most of the clients are adjustment happy...."
MU doesn't require any adjustements. No track to track, no variants, no slop, no mud, no trainers, no jocks, no class. No RULES
lbj

Adjustment-correction-tweaking-modification-change is always done even with the MU. In MU it is called Voodoo. When you decide to use one pace line over the other especially if the latter is less in TS/TE/SR the effect is a change for had you picked the better rated pace line the horse might have come out on top. When you decided to leave out certain entries as non contenders that is also a change since had they been left in again the outcome could have been different. As far as I am concerned there is some adjustment in each race that we handicap but many times it is intuitive (pace line selections that loom up at you) or other times it is called other things such as Voodoo.

Too much adjustment is no good but there has to be just that right mixture of correction or tweaking to what is shown in the past performances at certain times to come up with an advantage or better yet the right choice. Just what and how much change is needed remains elusive at least to me for now.

Just one opinion--Thanks,

Robert

[gl45]

change a pace line over another isn't adjust. Change raw data because different track, or variants, class, that's for me is adjustement.
lbj

[mufasa]

Originally Posted by lbj

change a pace line over another isn't adjust. Change raw data because different track, or variants, class, that's for me is adjustement.
lbj

I guess we will generally disagree which is what makes handicapping and the resulting betting of thoroughbreds so interesting. There are so many ways to either get to the same place or to come up with different preferred choices for the w/p/s +.

There are so many decisions to be made before investing your hard earned dollars, at least dozens. To me whichever way you go reflects a change in what could have been the outcome had there been a different decision. To use mud lines or not or turf races or not or pace call/speed rating times that are seemingly overly high and never demonstrated before or not, and of cause to use last line or some other line and how far down etc etc.

To me there is no such thing as you are not correcting or modifying or adjusting in some way the information before you in the past performances to get it to fit into an evaluation format that you are comfortable with. Perhaps I am overstating or using the idea of adjustment in too large a way and you are probably right in limiting to affecting a particular pace line by way of variant or track to track or class.

Thanks,

Robert

[CEW]

Robert..............

The answer to your question is a question also - how do you want to handicap a race? What is your style? If you want to get into the match-up Bradshaw style, then you really should forget about the adjustments (at least initially) and concentrate on what the horses have shown. If a horse set a 44 and 1 to the 2nd call, then that's what he's capable of doing, etc. It requires digging through all the lines on all the horses.

The other end of the spectrum is practicing paceline and contender selection with your current program until you are selecting winners at a high enough percentage. Let the program do the adjusting, and keep going over your losers until you instictively go to the right contenders and lines.

There are guys who can tear it up and really don't dig that deep into the PPs, and there are guys who can whittle it down to 1, 2 or 3 by match-up. I personally rely heavily on my program, and I practice line selection like crazy.

One things is for sure - the Sartin Method has room for a lot of personality and thats why it has endured !!

Chuck

[socantra]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Personally I got a headache when halfway through the first followup realizing that all that par/variant/track stuff had at 1 time also consumed me to the point
of going nuts.

Dick (Socantra)
David (Alydar)
Ted (Ted)

have all seen copies of software where I changed par tables,changed track speeds,changed everything and basically lost my ****ing mind in the process.

You must admit that it was kind of fun for a while though; spinning our wheels like crazy and thinking we were really going someplace. The learning process is a wonderful thing if it doesn't kill you.

Dick...