Double digit winners

[RichieP]

Tracking what double digit winners looked like in their pp's often reveals some interesting patterns for those willing to do some extra work.

From yesterday at a couple of tracks

Haw9 - $13.40 - horrible last race with an excuse in trouble line
Hou6 - $31.00 - terrific last race BUT jockey is 0/42
Hou8 - $10.60 - off the board finish in last race which was first over the track
Tp2 -$12.20 - off the board finish last race in different distance structure
Tup4 -$23.20 - off the board finish in last race first over surface

This took me 5 minutes to do and I had to take and upload screen shots. How long without having to do that and a little notepad nearby?

[Buzz]

Richie,

This is a real brain teaser. Somehow you have isolated, in each race, the horse most likely to improve the most.

This is something that I thought was not possible using the matchup because one of the elimination rules is to throw out slow horses. And it is slow horses (with proper training) that are most likely to improve the most. Hence the long prices.

Since these races were still avaliable from TM I downloaded them into RDSS and was certain I would find the answer. My intuition tells me it has something to do with pacelines, but I do not know what. Distance switches?

I am no stranger to homework so without giving out the whole picture, how about a clue or two?

If you have described how to get these types of horses before would you please point me to the discussion topic so I can try and figure this out?

Buzz

[admin]

Rich In the Sam Houston race 8
the six horse is the same pattern as the 7
off the board last race first time over the track

The 7 was $4.60-1
the 6 was $4.30-1

They really over bet the 4 horse to .90/1
who also had the same pattern
off the board last race first time over track

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Buzz

Richie,

This is a real brain teaser. Somehow you have isolated, in each race, the horse most likely to improve the most.

This is something that I thought was not possible using the matchup because one of the elimination rules is to throw out slow horses. And it is slow horses (with proper training) that are most likely to improve the most. Hence the long prices.

Since these races were still avaliable from TM I downloaded them into RDSS and was certain I would find the answer. My intuition tells me it has something to do with pacelines, but I do not know what. Distance switches?

I am no stranger to homework so without giving out the whole picture, how about a clue or two?

If you have described how to get these types of horses before would you please point me to the discussion topic so I can try and figure this out?

Buzz

Buzz
This has nothing to do with the matchup thats why I posted here. Just something I have been noticing and remembering for like 10 years.

Bill was asked by Howard in the late 90's to track what long priced winners looked like on the early late graph. Bill spent over 2 years accumulating data for Howard's project that was going to be published in upcoming followups.
Bill had made this special pad he named a "tick pad" that was a little sheet with pertinent data for the final 5 contenders in each race. We were the only 2 guys at the Meadowlands walking around with a bunch of these things and nobody had a clue what they were. We did however. Then Howard took ill and Bill's work remained unpublished.

My take on things was to look at the past performances instead of the e/l that was already being examined closely by Bill. So I started keeping track of things like what was posted above.

I see 10 years later that history STILL repeats itself man.
Richie

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Buzz

Richie,
If you have described how to get these types of horses before would you please point me to the discussion topic so I can try and figure this out?
Buzz

Ohhhh Buzz.
Just reading this part again man. I did NOT bet all these winners. Just pointing out the actual look they had in the pp's ok?

ok

[admin]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Buzz
This has nothing to do with the matchup thats why I posted here. Just something I have been noticing and remembering for like 10 years.

Bill was asked by Howard in the late 90's to track what long priced winners looked like on the early late graph. Bill spent over 2 years accumulating data for Howard's project that was going to be published in upcoming followups.
Bill had made this special pad he named a "tick pad" that was a little sheet with pertinent data for the final 5 contenders in each race. We were the only 2 guys at the Meadowlands walking around with a bunch of these things and nobody had a clue what they were. We did however. Then Howard took ill and Bill's work remained unpublished.

My take on things was to look at the past performances instead of the e/l that was already being examined closely by Bill. So I started keeping track of things like what was posted above.

I see 10 years later that history STILL repeats itself man.
Richie

Rich wow that was a fun time ..
The tick pads were a big help Something that helped me
get a feel for the race < Rather than just look at the screen .
The act of filling in the boxes and making the contenders
marks on the early late graph myself made it clearer
who were the Earlys and non earlys

The tick pads were boxes for the Earl late readouits
total energy FX and VDC tier and win price
It was very easy to record keep
As soon as the race was over I just circled the winner on these
readouts and added the win price

I showed this idea to Doc
He asked me to record the win price and the earlly late readout


Bill

[Buzz]

Richie,

Ok Thanks for the heads up, I almost fried my brain.

Sounds like Doc was considering more than just the Pace aspects of handicapping a race. I know that Doc referred to Taulbot’s work several times in the earlier manuals. Taulbot’s approach has been expanded on by several handicapping groups. From a Taulbot viewpoint the races you put up have some things in common.

All 5 entries last raced only 17 to 21 days ago.
All 5 entries have races with gains/losses of 1 ½ lengths and then losses/gains of 1 ½
Lengths.
3 entries have no wins since their last claim.
3 entries have finished within 7 lengths of the winner in 3 races.

Maybe these were on your tic sheet.

I just checked the American Turf Magazine website and they still have some of the Taulbot’s articles available that they published back in the day.

ATM Webpage for Pace Systems and Angles:
http://www.americanturf.com/pace/index.cfm

Also a link to “Dr Howard Sartin: Winning With the Pace Calculator”

Buzz

[bobp]

Might Get Lucky 3rd race in 30days, 2nd in 11

Sheza Botha Ours 3rd race in 30days, 2nd in 21

BobP