matching up dream race - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

Houndog · 12-14-2007, 03:15 PM

I would think matching up FPS would be the same as matching up the actual fractional times as seen in the racing form. If you have a "feel" for FPS readouts you could relate these to the actual fractions.

For example 22.0 for the first fraction in a sprint is 60 FPS. If a horse is capable of 60 FPS at the first fraction and the next closest horse can only do a 58; that is a significant edge in the first fraction. Not everything will be that obvious but whether you match-up using fractions, fps, or energy % the procedure should be similiar.

I want to stress that I am not an expert using the Match-Up, but this is my slant on things.

RichieP · 12-14-2007, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Houndog

I would think matching up FPS would be the same as matching up the actual fractional times as seen in the racing form. If you have a "feel" for FPS readouts you could relate these to the actual fractions.

For example 22.0 for the first fraction in a sprint is 60 FPS. If a horse is capable of 60 FPS at the first fraction and the next closest horse can only do a 58; that is a significant edge in the first fraction. Not everything will be that obvious but whether you match-up using fractions, fps, or energy % the procedure should be similiar.

I want to stress that I am not an expert using the Match-Up, but this is my slant on things.

Mike,
Can you quantify the significant edge in your example? Is he a length better? A head better (exaggeration).3 better? Thats one of the things I never "got" when looking at Fps numbers man.

I know they are very precise but are there some kind of table or graph showing the difference in terms more understandable and usable by folks like "Shoe".

I wish I could help more but can't man.

Houndog · 12-14-2007, 03:47 PM

Richie, in the previous example the 60 fps is equal to a 22.0 first fraction. The 58 would be roughly a first fraction of 22.75 (tenths). Dividing 1320 which is the number of feet in 2 furlongs by the fps will give you the fractional readouts.

So in the above example the first horse can do a 22.0 and the next closest horse is capable of 22.3 (fifths) which is a significant edge. This is a very simple example. The only thing I can tell you is that after you work with the FPS velocity readouts for awhile you will get a sense of what a good fraction is and what a bad fraction is.

The same can be said for the Energy readouts. It took me some time before I got used to the percentile ratings.

I know most everyone here is familiar with FPS readouts, but it bears repeating that the absolute best book on velocity based pace hanicapping is MPH by Tom Brohamer.

This probably doesn't really answer the question completely, but I think the only way you will get comfortable with velocity readouts is by continuosly working with them.

RichieP · 12-14-2007, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Houndog

Richie, in the previous example the 60 fps is equal to a 22.0 first fraction. The 58 would be roughly a first fraction of 22.75 (tenths). Dividing 1320 which is the number of feet in 2 furlongs by the fps will give you the fractional readouts.

So in the above example the first horse can do a 22.0 and the next closest horse is capable of 22.3 (fifths) which is a significant edge. This is a very simple example. The only thing I can tell you is that after you work with the FPS velocity readouts for awhile you will get a sense of what a good fraction is and what a bad fraction is.

The same can be said for the Energy readouts. It took me some time before I got used to the percentile ratings.

I know most everyone here is familiar with FPS readouts, but it bears repeating that the absolute best book on velocity based pace hanicapping is MPH by Tom Brohamer.

This probably doesn't really answer the question completely, but I think the only way you will get comfortable with velocity readouts is by continuosly working with them.

Terrific Mike!
Now the fog lifts a bit. I did not know about the dividing stuff.
Thank you.Learned something new today.

CEW · 01-06-2008, 04:20 PM

Greetings Shoeless, and everyone on this topic:

The Dream velocity (FPS) readouts are discussed all through the old Follow-ups in bits and pieces, but I can't recall any indepth articles on just that topic (!). Howard does mention in the Yellow Manual that any advantage of 1.00 or better in these readouts constitutes an excellent advantage. And Bob Purdy makes a number of references to them in the original Synergism manual.

I think one reason they kept appearing on future programs was (is) because the dream fractions (best of each fraction) are used to make the automatic adjustments.

You can add each horse's POH fractional readouts for a total energy readout. Then compare - a good contender selector.

Good Luck to All

Chuck Wilson

JIGSAW · 01-06-2008, 08:37 PM

CEW has it right. The adjustments are made for you off of the Dream Race. If you have Val 4 why worry about how the program does what it was designed to do. Do you have to know electricity to turn on a light?

Understanding the nuances of how this works is a waste of time and resources. If you picked the right pacelines you can take total energy down to the top 5 horses. Go to the Validator Screen and if you don't have the winner in your top 3 you made a paceline mistake.

You kept a horse that has not been out and does not have a good workout pattern I also look for a 5 fur. workout. I will go back on the horse to its last layoff and see how it runs cold. If it won I may use it.

You used a horse with too many beaten lenghths. Howard recommended 7.5 beaten lengths.

You went too far back for the paceline. Howard recommended 3 or 4 unless you have a good excuse.

You mixed and matched turf and dirt. I will do this if I have to but it is telling you to pass the race.

90% of peoples problems are paceline selection and that is where your efforts should be if you want to be a consistent winner. This is why these programs were developed to free you to work on your game. Look at GP 9 out of the Contest. I am not in the contest but I had the trifecta in that race. Run it until you have the 3 horses in the tri and you will be on the pacelines you need.

Howard said many times that when you need to know how a program works then you usually wont get the winners. This was his warning about tinkering with the programs not mine, but I believe it.

Paceline Selection on the matchup is different because they use it all to get there lines. Which is fine but don,t mix and match go with one or the other.

Sorry if I ruffled anyone's feathers this is stuff I learned the hard way. Why should you have to?

Denny

CEW · 01-06-2008, 10:24 PM

Jigsaw et al...........I agree on that. Pick a program, then practice contenders and pacelines till the patterns emerge and the win percent is there.

The adjustments have been fine tuned in all the programs, so practicing pace line selection until the winner rises to the top of the readouts is key. When the winners can't rise to the top, then back up to contender selection and figure out if there is a dud that is causing problems.

Believe me, I lose my share. Tonight I was 1 for 4 at Sam Houston. But Friday night I went 4 for 5 at various tracks.

Chuck

12-14-2007, 03:15 PM	#11
Houndog Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,258	FPS Match-Up I would think matching up FPS would be the same as matching up the actual fractional times as seen in the racing form. If you have a "feel" for FPS readouts you could relate these to the actual fractions. For example 22.0 for the first fraction in a sprint is 60 FPS. If a horse is capable of 60 FPS at the first fraction and the next closest horse can only do a 58; that is a significant edge in the first fraction. Not everything will be that obvious but whether you match-up using fractions, fps, or energy % the procedure should be similiar. I want to stress that I am not an expert using the Match-Up, but this is my slant on things.

12-14-2007, 03:47 PM	#13
Houndog Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,258	Rough Estimation Richie, in the previous example the 60 fps is equal to a 22.0 first fraction. The 58 would be roughly a first fraction of 22.75 (tenths). Dividing 1320 which is the number of feet in 2 furlongs by the fps will give you the fractional readouts. So in the above example the first horse can do a 22.0 and the next closest horse is capable of 22.3 (fifths) which is a significant edge. This is a very simple example. The only thing I can tell you is that after you work with the FPS velocity readouts for awhile you will get a sense of what a good fraction is and what a bad fraction is. The same can be said for the Energy readouts. It took me some time before I got used to the percentile ratings. I know most everyone here is familiar with FPS readouts, but it bears repeating that the absolute best book on velocity based pace hanicapping is MPH by Tom Brohamer. This probably doesn't really answer the question completely, but I think the only way you will get comfortable with velocity readouts is by continuosly working with them.

01-06-2008, 04:20 PM	#15
CEW Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 121	FPS fractional readouts Greetings Shoeless, and everyone on this topic: The Dream velocity (FPS) readouts are discussed all through the old Follow-ups in bits and pieces, but I can't recall any indepth articles on just that topic (!). Howard does mention in the Yellow Manual that any advantage of 1.00 or better in these readouts constitutes an excellent advantage. And Bob Purdy makes a number of references to them in the original Synergism manual. I think one reason they kept appearing on future programs was (is) because the dream fractions (best of each fraction) are used to make the automatic adjustments. You can add each horse's POH fractional readouts for a total energy readout. Then compare - a good contender selector. Good Luck to All Chuck Wilson

01-06-2008, 08:37 PM	#16
JIGSAW AlwNW2X Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28	fps CEW has it right. The adjustments are made for you off of the Dream Race. If you have Val 4 why worry about how the program does what it was designed to do. Do you have to know electricity to turn on a light? Understanding the nuances of how this works is a waste of time and resources. If you picked the right pacelines you can take total energy down to the top 5 horses. Go to the Validator Screen and if you don't have the winner in your top 3 you made a paceline mistake. You kept a horse that has not been out and does not have a good workout pattern I also look for a 5 fur. workout. I will go back on the horse to its last layoff and see how it runs cold. If it won I may use it. You used a horse with too many beaten lenghths. Howard recommended 7.5 beaten lengths. You went too far back for the paceline. Howard recommended 3 or 4 unless you have a good excuse. You mixed and matched turf and dirt. I will do this if I have to but it is telling you to pass the race. 90% of peoples problems are paceline selection and that is where your efforts should be if you want to be a consistent winner. This is why these programs were developed to free you to work on your game. Look at GP 9 out of the Contest. I am not in the contest but I had the trifecta in that race. Run it until you have the 3 horses in the tri and you will be on the pacelines you need. Howard said many times that when you need to know how a program works then you usually wont get the winners. This was his warning about tinkering with the programs not mine, but I believe it. Paceline Selection on the matchup is different because they use it all to get there lines. Which is fine but don,t mix and match go with one or the other. Sorry if I ruffled anyone's feathers this is stuff I learned the hard way. Why should you have to? Denny

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01-06-2008, 10:24 PM	#17
CEW Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 121	Jigsaw et al...........I agree on that. Pick a program, then practice contenders and pacelines till the patterns emerge and the win percent is there. The adjustments have been fine tuned in all the programs, so practicing pace line selection until the winner rises to the top of the readouts is key. When the winners can't rise to the top, then back up to contender selection and figure out if there is a dud that is causing problems. Believe me, I lose my share. Tonight I was 1 for 4 at Sam Houston. But Friday night I went 4 for 5 at various tracks. Chuck