Poly Track Pace Lines For 'Capping CD - Pace and Cap

lsosa54 · 05-01-2008, 02:57 PM

What are some thoughts on using poly pace lines in handicapping the Oaks and Derby? My concern is not so much whether Sartin programs can handle them well - I believe they can. It's more from: do I use a poly pace line to represent what a horse might do on Churchill's surface?

There may be some clues in the workouts. If a horse is working well over the CD surface like let's say, Colonel John, who shows 2 very nice 5f breezes, it may be logical to think that he should run well over the surface, even though all his races have been on the different SoCal poly surfaces. He has run well on all of them.

The real tricky call is what to do with a horse like Pyro. Do we excuse his last as a result of his only poly race OR is this last race truly a problem? He really didn't run a step. His CD workout is uninspiring but his KEE & FG workouts showing were also that way.

You can say the pace in the Bluegrass was slow but he closed like a monster off a slower pace at FG. The raw FFR's of both races (not counting beaten lengths) were 36 & 3/5th's and 30 - a 98 and a 97 on the FFR chart - basically equal. The DTV's were 10 and 8, so no big difference.

Would appreciate hearing some opinions as whatever strategy one takes in this area could win or lose the races. Thanks.

JimG · 05-01-2008, 03:16 PM

Regarding Pyro, if I had to select one paceline, it would not be his best race, nor his worse race but something in between representing the fact he is returning to dirt ( a positive) but ran a very poor last race (a negative), regardless of the surface.

Tim Y · 05-01-2008, 03:38 PM

This race is all about peaking at the right time. Would you bet a horse whose last three look like this? Going backwards? This one is a ONE run colt anyway.

Rverge · 05-01-2008, 05:51 PM

also if eight bells, runs which line could one use?

Tim Y · 05-01-2008, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rverge

also if eight bells, runs which line could one use?

Put in the last two then look at the incremental deceleration screen. It is amazing.

Ted Craven · 05-01-2008, 07:45 PM

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jma1143 · 05-01-2008, 08:32 PM

Use Synergism 2 and say yes to the program question, "is this horse a shipper?" for any contender going from poly track to dirt track. The program knows how to treat the shipper.

Tim Y · 05-02-2008, 03:10 PM

DEEP closers do not win the Kentucky Derby. All of these shippers coming in from Synthetics are skewing reality. Sustained, NOT LATE is the style that wins here as this deceleration will show it did before as the top TWO finishers were in the range that wins there at Afleet Alex was not.

Tim Y · 05-04-2008, 02:17 PM

Deceleration look familiar and the deep closers were up the track?

admin · 05-04-2008, 02:31 PM

Thanks Tim I see, watching the replays Its such a tight bunch of chaos you better have a clear path outside or have sustained energy and be up close enough to finish Pyro got little bumping early and it was over he moved up but it was too much traffic monba well .... thanks Bill

05-01-2008, 02:57 PM	#1
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	Poly Track Pace Lines For 'Capping CD What are some thoughts on using poly pace lines in handicapping the Oaks and Derby? My concern is not so much whether Sartin programs can handle them well - I believe they can. It's more from: do I use a poly pace line to represent what a horse might do on Churchill's surface? There may be some clues in the workouts. If a horse is working well over the CD surface like let's say, Colonel John, who shows 2 very nice 5f breezes, it may be logical to think that he should run well over the surface, even though all his races have been on the different SoCal poly surfaces. He has run well on all of them. The real tricky call is what to do with a horse like Pyro. Do we excuse his last as a result of his only poly race OR is this last race truly a problem? He really didn't run a step. His CD workout is uninspiring but his KEE & FG workouts showing were also that way. You can say the pace in the Bluegrass was slow but he closed like a monster off a slower pace at FG. The raw FFR's of both races (not counting beaten lengths) were 36 & 3/5th's and 30 - a 98 and a 97 on the FFR chart - basically equal. The DTV's were 10 and 8, so no big difference. Would appreciate hearing some opinions as whatever strategy one takes in this area could win or lose the races. Thanks.

05-01-2008, 03:38 PM	#3
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	This race is all about peaking at the right time. Would you bet a horse whose last three look like this? Going backwards? This one is a ONE run colt anyway. Attached Images

05-01-2008, 05:51 PM	#4
Rverge Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: pittsburgh, now! Lancaster, CA. Posts: 2,531	also also if eight bells, runs which line could one use? __________________ i love every single minute of life, and, if one is lucky,then you must give it to others.

05-01-2008, 07:45 PM	#6
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,258	__________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

05-01-2008, 08:32 PM	#7
jma1143 AlwNW3X Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 40	Poly track pace lines. Use Synergism 2 and say yes to the program question, "is this horse a shipper?" for any contender going from poly track to dirt track. The program knows how to treat the shipper.

05-01-2008, 03:16 PM	#2
JimG Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 992	Regarding Pyro, if I had to select one paceline, it would not be his best race, nor his worse race but something in between representing the fact he is returning to dirt ( a positive) but ran a very poor last race (a negative), regardless of the surface.

05-02-2008, 03:10 PM	#8
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Courses for Horses DEEP closers do not win the Kentucky Derby. All of these shippers coming in from Synthetics are skewing reality. Sustained, NOT LATE is the style that wins here as this deceleration will show it did before as the top TWO finishers were in the range that wins there at Afleet Alex was not. Attached Images

05-04-2008, 02:17 PM	#9
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Deceleration look familiar and the deep closers were up the track? Attached Images

05-04-2008, 02:31 PM	#10
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	interesting Thanks Tim I see, watching the replays Its such a tight bunch of chaos you better have a clear path outside or have sustained energy and be up close enough to finish Pyro got little bumping early and it was over he moved up but it was too much traffic monba well .... thanks Bill

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