Sartin

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by lbj

54,
The fact that you select a not so apparent winner through a pre race analisys, do indicate a knowledge in reading a horse past performance. EXDC and Thoro didn't select the winner.

Correct, the software helped soldify (right word??) the initial race analysis made by Lou

[MIKE1121]

I agree with the many benefits of using result charts with the Sartin methodology. Tom Hambilton in the book Pace Makes The Race often said that he would continuously check the result charts to verify his track to track adjustments. I do it all the time, it works.

Want to learn the crowds weaknesses, examine your PPs with the result charts , you will learn what they under value and over value quickly.

Mike.

[lsosa54]

Originally Posted by lbj

54,
It is a simplistic summary. You quoted "if I do my job of selecting contenders and pace lines that are predictive, this program does an outstanding job of selecting winners and many of them are not apparent through pre race analysis, especially in contentious races.".

You don't give yourself enough credit. The fact that you select a not so apparent winner through a pre race analisys, do indicate a knowledge in reading a horse past performance. EXDC and Thoro didn't select the winner.

No, they didn't select the winner, but they did help me to separate contenders and make a betting choice that may not have been apparent on the surface or at least to me and that I may not have been able to separate without the use of the software.

Charley: Sorry - I hadn't seen your post - but what you said is what i meant. Solidify is the correct term. Let's not forget that by using EXDC/Thoromation I'm using an aid that the Hat had a large part in developing for people like myself who may not be able to separate contenders consistently by the manual match up process that folks like Richie are mastering. I spend my time on contenders and pace lines and let the software do its thing. My contender and pace line selection is neither crazy nor mechanical. It is very much modeled after Tom Brohamer's approach and is logical to my thought process.

[lsosa54]

Originally Posted by Turf Speculator

So while all the intuitive members of Pirco were betting there 3 to 20 dollars a race he was betting 200 to 300 dollars a race and was the biggest money earner in Pirco at the time.

I have no doubt that what you say about Dick is true. I don't think Brohamer was betting $20 a race as I did get to spend some time with him. The Hat's approach was different from both of them so I do think there is room for different approaches that can lead to profit.

[Jonathan Steele]

"Because Sartin's income was derived from the sale of the steady stream of the "latest, greatest" software to "analyze races,"

I don't like the ring of that. The writer makes it sound like there's something wrong with someone deriving an income from the sale of handicapping software, all of which costs time and money to develop, etc., not to mention the brain power and imagination needed in the first place to come up with the formulae! Like Doc's time and creative genius was not to be compensated monetarily in some way (though that was not his motive in doing what he did)!

If whoever wrote this did better research on the subject, they'd realize that there was a whole hell of a lot more to the Sartin Methodology than the mere sale of handicapping software!

"later users argued that the "software didn't really do anything" beyond generating simplistic pace ratings."

I'd be willing to bet those "later users" were not "users" of programs like Synthesis and Validator whose ratings were anything but "simplistic pace ratings." It amazes and amuses me when I read articles like this, whose writers base their critique on what they believe the Sartin Methodology to be--decades old Phase I and Phase III teachings!

Sounds to me like sour grapes from disgruntled former members and/or those "horseplayers" who refused (or were intellectually incapable) to grasp and apply the Sartin Methodology as instructed.

Regards,

Jon

[Tim Y]

I have heard from multiple sources that many inside the original Pirco group were dissatisfied with the way descriptions of the use of the methodology were not explained so as the newest software program would be needed.

I cannot blame anyone for doing the marketing necessary to keep the sales of software up, but others did.

The Sartin methodology is a starting point for those individuals who can see adaptations outside the mainstream.THINGS CHANGE as new discoveries are made and it is the enlightened individual who continues to realize that NOTHING stays the same. As I often quote Hereclitus; "You can never step in the same river twice."

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Steele

I'd be willing to bet those "later users" were not "users" of programs like Synthesis and Validator whose ratings were anything but "simplistic pace ratings."
Regards,
Jon

Hi Jon
Quick anecdotal story about Validator and it's V/DC readout when it first came out in the late 90's.

This was when I was at the Meadowlands 6 days a week night and day wagering and Bill and I would hook up often at "the table" up in the clubhouse especially Saturday. That was our day to be together and enjoy racing and good friends.

Mark would join us and may times these other 2 fellows Neil and Freddie. Freddie was one of the first users of a deceleration program back in the late 80's/early 90's and headed a wager syndicate that made well over a million dollars in a few years.

Story isn't about any of them or myself. It is about a man named Joe who Bill and myself affectionately called "The Beard". He knew nothing about computers,software or anything like that. Bill and myself took the time to show him Howard's simple best of last 3 comparable guidelines for paceline selection. Then we taught him how to hide to top 5 total energy/line score.

All we told him after that was to write down the top 3 on the V/DC screen and always pay attention to longshots ranked THIRD. He loved exactas and would go and box them in exactas. Sometimes it was 3 most times 4 horses in the box.He didn't look at trainers/jockeys,layoffs etc. He got his numbers and went straight to the window and bet. We would sit him in front of the computer and he did all the work himself.

Travers day at Saratoga comes and it was an unreal card with super competitive races and giant fields. A lot of the big name cappers in the business had given picks/opines on the card either in print,on the Saratoga show or online. The Beard sat down at 11 A.M. after we entered the scratches for him and worked the entire card writing down each race the top 3 V/DC and ties. Took him somewhere around 30-45 minutes to do. He left us his numbers on a sheet,headed straight to the window to box his exactas and disappeared downstairs.

During the card Bill,myself and Mark would look over at his numbers he left us. I can't remember how many times we said "Beard's got this one!". With simple $1.00 ex boxes at card's end he hammered the races for significant profit. he out performed all the "experts" considerably and stuffed his pockets so much he was "leaning" toward one side. Later on he comes back and leaves me and Bill a voucher for ourselves as a thank you. Not sure if it was $50.00 or $100.00

I can't tell you how many times I was in the Franchises alone during the week betting and he would work a card or 2,leave and hours later walk by and drop a 50 buck voucher on my table. I'm dead serious.

Bill would say he never saw anyone who acted so quickly going to BET immediately after getting his "mix".

The "table" broke up,folks went their own ways but the Beard never forgot. Bill told me a while back he stopped at the Meadowlands and who does he run into but yes The Beard! After exchanging pleasantries Bill said first thing Joe asked for was Bill's V/DC numbers! This is after at least a few years had come and gone.

This really is quite a remarkable game we play isn't it! Room for ALL ideas under the big umbrella we know as racing .

From using computers to raw stuff to angles to Bayesian models ( ) to picking numbers and colors (my Mom )

Remarkable!

[mufasa]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

Let the program tell you. I have done very well using each horse's MOST RECENT TOP E/EP LINES as their pace lines for the program: works very well.

Tim:

You have some very interesting ideas and I usually look forward to reading your post. Your recent comment and expressed at times in other post is that the pace line selection and its program results can benefit if one uses the best 1-2 E/EL ratings within the last 3-4 races? Assuming that I have that statement somewhat correct the E/EL rating is just one part of the overall Energy rating which I have tried to use in the past as a basis in my pace line selection.

Why not just use the entire Energy rating in pace line selection rather then as you suggest just the one part of the overall rating. I know that in most dirt races early speed is king so perhaps that is what you are concentrating on by using this one part of the rating vs. the entire rating. I am just guessing at your reasoning so if you could please elaborate on this point, if you do not mind. Is this just for dirt races or do you also use it for grass or poly races? Is there yet another consideration for winners vs. maidens?

Thanks,

Robert

[Tim Y]

Things change. We are NOT looking for what HAPPENED, we are looking for what WILL HAPPEN and the best way to find that is projection based upon a logical premise. It is for all dirt races, no matter the level since horses don't know if they are running at the man-made level of 10 or 15K, they just run.
It is an old time honored idea: IMPROVING EARLY SPEED

[Tim Y]

here is how the program caught the 10/1 winner of the nightcap at Philadelphia today. See the improving early cycles recently in the far left E/Ep column? Since EP is such a large part of a pace rating, the TPP is often the top rated one along with the top E/Ep