The history of Speculator

[JimG]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Jim
I really sorry you got thrown off because of me
I like the avatar... Let it ride

Shoot, no worries. That was years ago. I forgot all about it until Tim brought up the board and I thought I could pick up and/or contribute a nugget or two.

Wonder where I got that nice avatar Bill? That is how I met you online. We both loved Let it Ride and you provided me with some nice avatars.

I believe that is where the horses break from the gate and Looney yells the horse blinded him (after Trotter throws his beer on him) and Trotter says to Looney "One more word and I'll kill you, you pessimistic jinx"

Jim

[Tim Y]

Jim I was able to reverse that so try again tonight and it will be okayed.

[RichieP]

In my opinion Marty Dahl is very much an unsung hero in all this.

He is a VERY close friend of Doc, Ted and Guy and to the best of my knowledge the Spec version reflects key "Marty feedback" in its reads.

Plus from what I read his wife makes a mean biscotti!

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

PM me as it is now up to me to approve new people there, OR ,better yet, re-apply TODAY and I will okay it.

Hi Tim,

Thanks for approving me for re-joining SartinAlums yesterday. I was able to login and start reading recent posts. Lots of familiar names! Unfortunately, this morning I seem to banned again - can't login.

Know anything about that?

Ted

[Ted Craven]

I have done the programming for a number of software projects in my career: work shift scheduling, land title registry, psychological profiling and others, some of which embodied highly complex algorithms, and all proprietary to the owners who hired me. I did not create those software applications and I'm sure the owners would take a different point of view to hear me be described as the creator of them.

Similarly, and my comment to a quote above, Guy Wadsworth was not the creator of Validator or any of its predecessors (e.g. Quadrater, PaceLauncher, Synthesis). He was the programmer for the creator of the intellectual ideas, namely Doc Sartin. And Doc got his ideas originally from studying Ray Taulbot, then Tom Ainslie, then Huey Mahl and everyone else in and out of print, then by his own study, research and reflection, aided by good ideas from yet others who were drawn to his process of intellectual and psychological enquiry (e.g. Bradshaw, Brohamer, Pizzola, Schmidt, Hambleton, Purdy and a host of others).

It is human nature that creative individuals who are exposed to the inner workings of a complex concept want to add their own creativity to what is before them, so naturally Guy wanted to make his own contribution to Doc's work - fair enough. It's actually surprising that Doc and Guy managed to work together for as long as they did, both being so strong minded, of such divergent political and social views and coming from different points of view on what role a handicapping software program should actually perform in a healing arts organization like PIRCO/O Henry House (my interpretation). Guy was an inventor, a tinker, ready to try out new and interesting ideas to see if he could actually do it, if they would work or even be useful. Doc, on the other hand - was focused on helping clients to WIN: to win money at horseracing, or to win self-mastery even if they didn't make much money from the races - as a psychological, even spiritual healing or self-validation exercise, the "gift of prophecy" etc, etc. Those are distinct focuses, and I believe Doc embodied the notion of KISS ('keep it simple stupid'). He said you can either be a handicapper, which he sometimes uttered as a pejorative term, or you can let the Methodology concepts and software help you to become a Winner - to make money (Not that Handicapper and Winner are mutually exclusive identities, though). I saw him persistently seek to reduce, reduce, reduce complexity to the simplest terms he knew how, with the goal (at least according to him) of offering useful tools to the perhaps intellectually least of us, be we only honest and willing to learn.

So Doc wanted to make his readouts simpler; Guy wanted to add ideas. And - almost every new programming team who comes in to take over an existing project finds some fault or counter-view to the previous team's approach (even if you were on both teams but forced to comply with a previous regime) - I think this is also human nature ("I wanna be free, I wanna create..."). Doc described to me the details of the Val3 debacle and collapse of O Henry House around the time of his birthday and serious stroke in 2001 (though I never heard Guy's side of the story). Guy was undoubtedly fearful of losing his livelihood, such as it was, and indeed lived a subsistence lifestyle until his end on Jan 1, 2006. All these desires and fears motivate people...

Speculator came from Validator - it was not simply created solely by Guy. Doc says he stole it, Guy says he caught the dropped ball and ran with it. Wisdom and acceptance (and perhaps madness) lie in being able to hold opposing notions in one's mind at the same time. Guy was as much an agregator as innovator, quite willing to try out the ideas of others to see if they were better. Those others' names must include Marty Dahl, Gerald Springer, HK, BT for ideas including modifying the sprint to route formula, the Longshot Detector, the Perceptor concept, and Pre-Analysis. Plus probably others I don't know. As Tim points out, many users tested subsequent iterations and pointed out bugs or enhancements - and thanks to them. The bug corrections, enhancements and emergency maintenance did NOT end with Guy's passing either: I managed to add printing to the Windows printer, correct the TrackMaster/Equibase DTV issue, add back in the missing ITV variants and fix a few (egregious) calculation bugs. That was Spec160, and the end of the line. I am happy that Doc's view and Guy's view are finally reconciled (such as they are) in what is becoming RDSS - Doc is certainly satisfied.

No one should doubt that I and many others did not have enormous affection for Guy: we came to talk weekly over a year and a half and I'm sure I heard every old groaner of a joke of my father's generation, and more of Republican politics than a Canadian boy is constitutionally permitted. That plus the normal fears, desires and trials of an old, sick man, and sometimes beset by erstwhile friends. He was more generous than most people I know, though he often had not more than next month's rent in his caretaker's bank account (Marie, another walking saint). In the end, I'm glad I got see where he lived, meet his friends, help speed his way.

If any have not read this before, here is the Pace and Cap thread from February 2006 from Guy's Memorial service: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=766

Guy got some things right with Speculator and several things wrong (in my view):

Right:

1. He made some kind of Sartin software available after Doc became incapacitated
2. He gave us a better sprint to route projection
3. He added the Perceptor notion of stating Primary factors, Total Energy and fractional velocities as percentages of best
4. Brought the Deceleration readout from underground to foreground
5. Added TS+F3 to Match Up graph, rather than repeating V/DC rank
6. Extended the traditional Second Call Beaten Lengths readout (SCBL on many software) to the First Fraction and Final Time (Match Up showing Computed Beaten Length screen)
7. Pre Analysis (sort all horses' aggregate lines by several factors, filtered by timeframe and distance/surface)


Wrong:

1. He omitted the TrackMaster Inter Track Variant (said he did not understand it)
2. He thought that Equibase/TrackMaster's upcoming change of their Speed Rating formula would not affect the software (the effect of these first 2 items on Speculator prior to Spec160 renders the readouts closer to random than software befitting a Sartin heritage)
3. He omitted the V/DC readout (said he did not understand it). Wrong, wrong and wrong choice: Velocity tempered by Deceleration is everything Doc stood for since Phase III, from Energy through Entropy up to Validator. The Deceleration or Entropy readouts are NOT V/DC!
4. Thanks to early Spec testers for urging him to reinstate BL/BL.

Indeterminate:

1. Used fixed value for beaten lengths at all distances, distinct from Doc's longstanding practise of emphacising 3rd faction performance via use of variable beaten lengths
2. Long Shot Detector screen


Summary

Guy Wadsworth deserves much respect for his contributions to the Sartin Methodology. Those who knew him will always remember him fondly - no one who writes to me about RDSS or Speculator ever has an unkind word to say, only fond memories. Speculator prior to Spec160 is next to useless (same with Validator prior to Val4). Spec160 and Val4 still get great winners and you can make a living with either. When I use RDSS, I use the Spec160 settings. Spec160 (and Val4) is being replaced by RDSS.

I think all the foregoing is also pertinent to the History of Speculator.

Respectfully,

Ted

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Hi Tim,

Thanks for approving me for re-joining SartinAlums yesterday. I was able to login and start reading recent posts. Lots of familiar names! Unfortunately, this morning I seem to banned again - can't login.

Know anything about that?

Ted

I am not the owner and as such, being JUST the moderator, I am only SECOND in command!

I did my part

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

I am not the owner and as such, being JUST the moderator, I am only SECOND in command!

I did my part

I think I must hold the record now - banned 4 times from Sartin Alums I wonder if Doc Sartin himself would be permitted to join and express his views.

Ted

[Tim Y]

I am up to 5 banishments from racing groups. It is a strange world when simple rational differences of perspective are drowned out the Fox news way: "Cut his mike!"

Of course the opposing point of view "appears to" win since there is no longer debate.

[Tim Y]

now I am having a tough time getting to do my moderator work this AM

[shipper]

Originally Posted by RichieP

In my opinion Marty Dahl is very much an unsung hero in all this.

He is a VERY close friend of Doc, Ted and Guy and to the best of my knowledge the Spec version reflects key "Marty feedback" in its reads.

Plus from what I read his wife makes a mean biscotti!

Richie: Thanks for the kind words... I consider it an honor to have known Guy as well as to know Ted and Doc. Very few people I've ever known have worked as tirelessly as these gentlemen in finding a better way for the rest of us...

And, yes, I have to admit. My Italian wife does make the best biscotti this side of Tuscany!.. Hopefully, someday you and I will meet and you can be the best judge of that... Marty