Thursday, January 15, 2009

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by clore1030

Yeah, last year as in December 2008. Ever since just after Christmas, the track has become almost foreign to me.

On paper, the 1 should run away with the eighth.

Keeping a track profile starting my looking for just what happened as e/l's of PLUS 19 were winning the last several years and NOW they are dying on the front. A good friend in Minnesota (a very astute player) just reported the same findings quote:Re: AQU inner track change part two

"My records echo Tim's Aqu inner findings. I show only 1 true early day
there since they went to the inner, that being 12/28, when the track
was labeled good and drying out. That is usually not the type of
surface that favors the front end, but it did big time that day. Every
other day, the other end of the spectrum, the latest L/E, top MUG
winners have been the more predictive winners. They do have a new
track super, but this is a very drastic change. Even the coldest of
days have not changed things there. (we are sitting today at -27 so I
guess cold is all relative - just about everything closed around here
at that temp today). The coolest temps of the season forecast for New
York this weekend so if that does not bring back the front runners, I
am not sure what will."


Still say 1 5 have the edge here BUT NO ODDS NO BET

[Tim Y]

Tampa ninth

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

Keeping a track profile starting my looking for just what happened as e/l's of PLUS 19 were winning the last several years and NOW they are dying on the front. A good friend in Minnesota (a very astute player) just reported the same findings quote:Re: AQU inner track change part two

"My records echo Tim's Aqu inner findings. I show only 1 true early day
there since they went to the inner, that being 12/28, when the track
was labeled good and drying out. That is usually not the type of
surface that favors the front end, but it did big time that day. Every
other day, the other end of the spectrum, the latest L/E, top MUG
winners have been the more predictive winners. They do have a new
track super, but this is a very drastic change. Even the coldest of
days have not changed things there. (we are sitting today at -27 so I
guess cold is all relative - just about everything closed around here
at that temp today). The coolest temps of the season forecast for New
York this weekend so if that does not bring back the front runners, I
am not sure what will."


Still say 1 5 have the edge here BUT NO ODDS NO BET

I just got that post via the Sartin alums email.

I was doing very well prior to the holiday break, with only one losing day and two break-even days.

The winners are showing up out of my top five since then, but many are ranked either fourth or fifth. With tomorrow a dark day now, I'm going to spend the day backtracking the last three weeks in more detail.

For the ninth race, I'll wagercap on my two longest of the top four - right now they are the 4 and the 11. Just action bets though.

[tfm]

AQU, R9, #7, Undocumented

[Tim Y]

with the out front in the ninth AQU

Hard to believe that track has changed to the point of taking these but that is the way that place is running

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by tfm

AQU, R9, #7, Undocumented

Nice job. I whittled the field down to five horses. The last one that I rejected was the 7.

[tfm]

Thanks. Been stinking it up to this point.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by tfm

Thanks. Been stinking it up to this point.

Join the club... I was alive to , , , , 11 in the nightcap P3 and you know the rest of the story.

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by tfm

Thanks. Been stinking it up to this point.

Don't feel bad. In the last seven racing days at AQU, I've had one winning day, one break-even day and the rest were losses.

This was always my track of choice, so I'm going to have to adjust to the changed conditions.

I was really in a quandary about the 7 horse, it was a fine line between tossing out either that one or the 9 horse. I wrongly figured that the excellent race the 7 had in its last had probably taken all he had.

[tfm]

Originally Posted by clore1030

Don't feel bad. In the last seven racing days at AQU, I've had one winning day, one break-even day and the rest were losses.

This was always my track of choice, so I'm going to have to adjust to the changed conditions.

I was really in a quandary about the 7 horse, it was a fine line between tossing out either that one or the 9 horse. I wrongly figured that the excellent race the 7 had in its last had probably taken all he had.

I think AQU, presently, is just about the most difficult track to handicap. There are so many BAD horses, with such bad form, that I only dabble. There are so many other better options out there.

I think there are two ways (among others) to go:

1) focus on a particular track and try to squeeze as many plays as you can out of each card

2) focus on many tracks and only play those races where a horse sticks out

I suck at 1; so I follow 2.