23 Potential O.T.E. races/ Monday 1/19 - Pace and Cap

Tim Y · 01-19-2009, 01:00 AM

It has been my experience over the last 24 years of following the methodology that predictions BEFORE scratches are chock full of error since you have NO IDEA what the final match up will or might be due to significant erosion of the match up structure.

A single scratch, or bump (Eternal Prince in Spend A Buck's Derby) can change the entire complexion of a race.

Also the mechanical approach (find three E horses then scratch them) can never equate to the rational evaluation of each race as the separate entity it is. I am reminded of Pizzolla
warning in Pace Makes the Race....."if you must resort to rules then you are dooming yourself to mere competence at best."

01-19-2009, 01:00 AM	#2
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	It has been my experience over the last 24 years of following the methodology that predictions BEFORE scratches are chock full of error since you have NO IDEA what the final match up will or might be due to significant erosion of the match up structure. A single scratch, or bump (Eternal Prince in Spend A Buck's Derby) can change the entire complexion of a race. Also the mechanical approach (find three E horses then scratch them) can never equate to the rational evaluation of each race as the separate entity it is. I am reminded of Pizzolla warning in Pace Makes the Race....."if you must resort to rules then you are dooming yourself to mere competence at best." __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." Last edited by Tim Y; 01-19-2009 at 01:06 AM.

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