EVD 6th -- Saturday, Feb. 4 - Pace and Cap

alydar_ David · 02-04-2006, 03:23 PM

EVD 6th -- Saturday, Feb. 4
6F Claiming $5,000
F&M 4YO+

Chew on this one for a while. Hehe. Talk about a chaos race!
In this fourteen horse field no horse is even remotely better than another.

Here's my take.

#12 Historic's Surprise has the best Total Energy and she's 8-1 on the morning line. This doesn't qualify as an automatic bet (I prefer 10-1 MLO for those), but it certainly makes her a contender. She's also got the fastest final time and can run to sustained pace par. The negatives? Well, she can't run to 1F or 2C par and this is 6F.

#7 Tiffany Cut can run to par and her zig-zag pattern indicates she may run well today. At 9/2 she's the shortest price I'm considering.

#13 Skating Katie has the strongest pace ratings. She doesn't have any late kick, but at 12-1 we can be a little forgiving. She's got five speed points which is more than anyone in the race except #1 Devil's Lock who has seven speed points.

I make these top three all about 4-1 Fair Odds.

#1 Devil's Lock is the speedball, class of the field, and has a dangerous trainer off the layoff. I think 6-1 is a tad' low for this horse, but if he drifts up to 10-1 I'll keep my eyes open.

Other horses I'll consider for the win and exotics include.

#8 listed at 10-1
#5 listed at 6-1
#14 listed at 10-1
#3 listed at 8-1
#13 listed at 12-1

In summary, I'll use at least one of my 4-1 Fair Odds horses. The rest...play by ear.

cprescigno · 02-04-2006, 04:16 PM

I'm just gownloading the Evngeline card now Dave. Going to take a look. Need to make some money this weekend. Have to do it today. Can't make money on football.

Charlie

cprescigno · 02-04-2006, 04:54 PM

Funny thing happened to me on the way to that sixth race Dave. I stopped at the 4th race, selected a line for all 14 horses and Val produced a BL screen with all 14 lines. I tried it in a smaller DOS window to take a sceen shot of the BL but couldn't reproduce it. Blocks me when I select 14 lines as it normally does. That's pretty strange.

Charlie

RichieP · 02-04-2006, 08:01 PM

Hi Guys

here is my look. According to my lines somethings wrong with the top ranked 10. Balance of 9?? NO thank you.

the other weird "look" is the 4th ranked # 5 showing balance of 3. Very very uncommon.

I think part of the reason is a few guys here have some wild beaten lenghts.

so let me go right between the "weird ones" to the 11 and 3

Win Bets 11 and 3

good luck
Richie

Binder · 02-04-2006, 11:57 PM

David I hope you took the #7

alydar_ David · 02-05-2006, 04:58 AM

We lost power! Even lost the phone lines too. Went to the movies,then dinner. Came back and still no power. Finally back on around 11:30 PM. Still pouring cats and dogs, but at least the lights are on and we're not crashing into things that go bump in the night. :>)

02-04-2006, 08:01 PM	#4
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Hi Guys here is my look. According to my lines somethings wrong with the top ranked 10. Balance of 9?? NO thank you. the other weird "look" is the 4th ranked # 5 showing balance of 3. Very very uncommon. I think part of the reason is a few guys here have some wild beaten lenghts. so let me go right between the "weird ones" to the 11 and 3 Win Bets 11 and 3 good luck Richie Attached Images

02-04-2006, 03:23 PM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	EVD 6th -- Saturday, Feb. 4 EVD 6th -- Saturday, Feb. 4 6F Claiming $5,000 F&M 4YO+ Chew on this one for a while. Hehe. Talk about a chaos race! In this fourteen horse field no horse is even remotely better than another. Here's my take. #12 Historic's Surprise has the best Total Energy and she's 8-1 on the morning line. This doesn't qualify as an automatic bet (I prefer 10-1 MLO for those), but it certainly makes her a contender. She's also got the fastest final time and can run to sustained pace par. The negatives? Well, she can't run to 1F or 2C par and this is 6F. #7 Tiffany Cut can run to par and her zig-zag pattern indicates she may run well today. At 9/2 she's the shortest price I'm considering. #13 Skating Katie has the strongest pace ratings. She doesn't have any late kick, but at 12-1 we can be a little forgiving. She's got five speed points which is more than anyone in the race except #1 Devil's Lock who has seven speed points. I make these top three all about 4-1 Fair Odds. #1 Devil's Lock is the speedball, class of the field, and has a dangerous trainer off the layoff. I think 6-1 is a tad' low for this horse, but if he drifts up to 10-1 I'll keep my eyes open. Other horses I'll consider for the win and exotics include. #8 listed at 10-1 #5 listed at 6-1 #14 listed at 10-1 #3 listed at 8-1 #13 listed at 12-1 In summary, I'll use at least one of my 4-1 Fair Odds horses. The rest...play by ear.

02-04-2006, 04:16 PM	#2
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	I'm just gownloading the Evngeline card now Dave. Going to take a look. Need to make some money this weekend. Have to do it today. Can't make money on football. Charlie

02-04-2006, 04:54 PM	#3
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	Funny thing happened to me on the way to that sixth race Dave. I stopped at the 4th race, selected a line for all 14 horses and Val produced a BL screen with all 14 lines. I tried it in a smaller DOS window to take a sceen shot of the BL but couldn't reproduce it. Blocks me when I select 14 lines as it normally does. That's pretty strange. Charlie

02-04-2006, 11:57 PM	#5
Binder Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Northern NJ Posts: 674	EVD race 6 David I hope you took the #7 Attached Images

02-05-2006, 04:58 AM	#6
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	We lost power! Even lost the phone lines too. Went to the movies,then dinner. Came back and still no power. Finally back on around 11:30 PM. Still pouring cats and dogs, but at least the lights are on and we're not crashing into things that go bump in the night. :>)