Beaten by a Nose, 85% of the time, Why? - Page 3 - Pace and Cap

Tim Y · 06-28-2009, 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rverge

last mention..try and read the book "overlay, overlay" by bill heller

THAT is a good book

Intrepid · 06-29-2009, 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

Okay I am here today because I want to become a winner, and I always thought I was pretty good Handicapper, but it seemed that evrytime I picked a HORSE, it would run around the track and somehow be in the lead right up to the finish line, and then he/her would give up the lead and come in 2nd, almost automatic, and I COULD NEVER FIGURE OUT WHY???
Patrick

Hi Patrick;

I'm wondering;....If you bet all your picks to place,...would they show a flat bet profit?

pktruckdriver · 06-30-2009, 08:50 AM

Man o Man alot of repsonses to my post here and they are all very good, and have made me re-think a few things and to step back realize that I am not that bad at my handicapping, losing by a nose so often is just the game getting it's fair share, when I thought it was me not recongnizing horses that just did not have enough to win, yet I thought they did and so I would continue handicapping the same and the results stayed consistent, and then when you adjust your play the horses come in differently.

I had a few angles to look for in my early (DRF) Form years of H-capping, as troubled trips and surface changes and a few Jockey and Trainer angles too, and then the hardcore track and distance angles were used, as well as ability, and this was the most important to me, did the horse have the ability to win today, and ability was not the horses best , but his average, as many Horse's Best's are never reduplicated, so it not advisable to look for the best always, unless we are talking young'uns 2-3 yr olds, as they improve and often, but 4yrs and older do not improve too often.

Even though I heard about Pace makes the Race, I was not into it then, Pace that is, but have come to recognize it for what it is , a very important part of Handicapping, And Doc had a handle on it, and I am here to learn it from the best, and just my short time here, I have enjoyed lot's of support and I feel right at home here, like what took you so long... feeling.

I may have to step back and take this slower than I wanted to, so as not to mees things up, and learn it right , the 1st time hopefully and not the 3rd or 4th time as I do most other things, as this seems kinda clear cut and straightforward, so hopefully I get it the first time.

Paceline selection, They say this is the KEY, well who am I to doubt that

Also the 2nd most important may be the PASS THIS RACE, mentality...Tough for me to learn, but I will learn it

3rd If not sure ask here and you get answers, this I do well enough

So with that said, you see why I feel so at home here, and thank god for colors they make things so much more fun, yes FUN , I am having a blast here, and this was blessing that I found you all, thx Richie

patrick

Tim Y · 06-30-2009, 01:07 PM

ONE thing that just about all the books and suggestions leave out: ONCE you understand how the race might run, HOW DO YOU MAKE MONEY??

Dave Scwartz at Paceadvantage got me to thinking a few years back when he said; "I spend AS MUCH TIME CREATING MY WAGERS, as I do handicapping the race."

It was then that I stopped and began balancing my act: capping vs. wagering. I have met hundreds good on one side of the equation, few on the other.

Read Mark Cramer's The Odds are on Your Side, or Fiero's Four Quarters of Horse Race Betting......They spell out how to balance that equation.

tom · 07-01-2009, 09:09 AM

Fiero is an excellent plan without a lot of math.

I find once you understand it, you are well on your way to getting to those 5-1, 7-1, 8-1 horse you would otherwise pass up for the 2-1, 5-2 shots.

Very good writer as well, so it is a good read.

06-30-2009, 08:50 AM	#23
pktruckdriver Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Saratoga Springs Posts: 1,547	Man o Man alot of repsonses to my post here and they are all very good, and have made me re-think a few things and to step back realize that I am not that bad at my handicapping, losing by a nose so often is just the game getting it's fair share, when I thought it was me not recongnizing horses that just did not have enough to win, yet I thought they did and so I would continue handicapping the same and the results stayed consistent, and then when you adjust your play the horses come in differently. I had a few angles to look for in my early (DRF) Form years of H-capping, as troubled trips and surface changes and a few Jockey and Trainer angles too, and then the hardcore track and distance angles were used, as well as ability, and this was the most important to me, did the horse have the ability to win today, and ability was not the horses best , but his average, as many Horse's Best's are never reduplicated, so it not advisable to look for the best always, unless we are talking young'uns 2-3 yr olds, as they improve and often, but 4yrs and older do not improve too often. Even though I heard about Pace makes the Race, I was not into it then, Pace that is, but have come to recognize it for what it is , a very important part of Handicapping, And Doc had a handle on it, and I am here to learn it from the best, and just my short time here, I have enjoyed lot's of support and I feel right at home here, like what took you so long... feeling. I may have to step back and take this slower than I wanted to, so as not to mees things up, and learn it right , the 1st time hopefully and not the 3rd or 4th time as I do most other things, as this seems kinda clear cut and straightforward, so hopefully I get it the first time. Paceline selection, They say this is the KEY, well who am I to doubt that Also the 2nd most important may be the PASS THIS RACE, mentality...Tough for me to learn, but I will learn it 3rd If not sure ask here and you get answers, this I do well enough So with that said, you see why I feel so at home here, and thank god for colors they make things so much more fun, yes FUN , I am having a blast here, and this was blessing that I found you all, thx Richie patrick Last edited by pktruckdriver; 06-30-2009 at 08:53 AM.

06-30-2009, 01:07 PM	#24
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	ONE thing that just about all the books and suggestions leave out: ONCE you understand how the race might run, HOW DO YOU MAKE MONEY?? Dave Scwartz at Paceadvantage got me to thinking a few years back when he said; "I spend AS MUCH TIME CREATING MY WAGERS, as I do handicapping the race." It was then that I stopped and began balancing my act: capping vs. wagering. I have met hundreds good on one side of the equation, few on the other. Read Mark Cramer's The Odds are on Your Side, or Fiero's Four Quarters of Horse Race Betting......They spell out how to balance that equation. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

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07-01-2009, 09:09 AM	#25
tom Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 644	Fiero is an excellent plan without a lot of math. I find once you understand it, you are well on your way to getting to those 5-1, 7-1, 8-1 horse you would otherwise pass up for the 2-1, 5-2 shots. Very good writer as well, so it is a good read.