Thinkin Problem, actually record keeping

[barb craven]

Patrick
If you've never used a spreadsheet before, your best bet might be to go to a bookshop and get a how-to book on Excel. There are some excellent ones out there for not too much, and they walk you through how to use it step by step, complete with screen shots every step of the way. It can be a very frustrating program to use if you don't know all the small nuances. A book will get you started off on the right foot.

Hope this helps

Barb

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by jms62

Patrick... I think you are setting yourself up for a letdown. Do you know what they call someone who claims 65-80% winners?? Delusional.. Maybe it is achieved every now and again in a 20 race cycle but over time no way.. If someone had an edge like that all they need to do is apply a full Kelly wagering strategy and they would be richer than Bill Gates in a short time..

Page 19 of the Yellow Manual states 63% AS THE AVERAGE, AND MANY CLIENTS MAINTAINED IT FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL YEARS.

Now this is from the Manual itself, and there is talk of %'s elsewhere too, Something about not being above 60% or, you could not move on to the next level, these were the old days apparently, but why should the %'s change or drop dramaticly, this is what I read, and you tell me I'm dillusional, man that is cold, but maybe true as those numbers are pretty high, but they state them right here on Page 19 of the yellow manual and other places too, so I'd liked to believe it possible, why not???



Barb, do you really think that I need a class or book to learn Excell just good enough to use Richie's little workbook, or to make one very similar to Richie's, just not so many Factor's, as he has it laid out perfect, doesn't he, I think so, I just thought a quick IM or Mikago meeting once or twice and I'd have it working in no time, yet you seem to think it is too complicated for that, okay, then Video Proffessor it is, because a book really would do me no good, as Excell seems to complicated to grasp, too many new words for me, so I hear wonders about Vid. Prof. , just didn't really want to use it,but i guess I must.

Boy the happiness here goes away quickly doesn't it, oh well not too many horse players are that happy anyway, unless they are winning all the time, and who really does that, and then at what percentage, the public 30-34% of the time, Sartin Methodology above 60% , I HOPE.

thank you

patrick

[barb craven]

Hi Patrick. Yes I really do think you need to learn excel either by book or,if you must video professor. It will save hours and hours of frustration if you do the basics first. I know is seems if you are constantly going backward, but this grounding will help you move forward with your modelling faster in the end.

Don't give up or feel unhappy. I'm at a plateau myself right now and get frustrated, but I never lose the excitement of what is to come if I keep trying and learning and I can't wait to get there. But I know there is still a lot of slogging to do and recordind keeping to be done, but slowly it will come, of that I am sure.

Keep it up.

Barb

[Ted Craven]

Patrick,

I have been persuaded by Richie to take a little time to create an Export to Excel feature for data in the Analysis screens of RDSS. It will be nothing fancy (compared to what I am working on for a later, larger software update) but it will save retyping numbers - basically a cut and paste job from one Excel worksheet to another.

This week - another update.

Cheers,

Ted

[pktruckdriver]

Y'all are the best, really, and don't worry Barb the Video Proffessor is on the way, but in the mean time a minor crash course would be nice, but not necessary now, I will just poke and prod till I figure it out, it has worked somewhat okay for me so far.


Thank you Ted and Richie and Barb too
Patrick
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyYZUhSeRYc

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by jms62

Do you know what they call someone who claims 65-80% winners?? Delusional

I can offer up these personal stats which has been posted here from time to time by me for years.

NEVER in 18 years of betting 2 horses to win with the Methodology have I ever come CLOSE to the % quoted. NEVER

MY win % betting TWO horses to win is 40%. Thats right 40%. Would have been laughed at except for one thing. I made money for 12 of those 18 years and 2 years I was away from society.

Keys for ME:
1) I do NOT bet chalks (less than 5/2 with 0 or 1 mtp)
2) I only bet races where at least ONE of my 2 win bets is giving me a chance to hit an overlay horse (minimum 5/1 or 6/1)

I have zero interest in betting races where the odds on my guys are say 5/2 and 7/2. NO interest whatsoever.

You can NOT write down an overlay winner for a race unless you have a CHANCE of hitting one by your wager.

Risk vs Reward

my 2c

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by RichieP

I can offer up these personal stats which has been posted here from time to time by me for years.

NEVER in 18 years of betting 2 horses to win with the Methodology have I ever come CLOSE to the % quoted. NEVER

That is about right

[Bill V.]

I can crack 50% percent But thats because I bet very few races. Since I don't depend on racing at all except for the challenge to do well and make a few dollars, I can bet them in many different ways.
I will bet the two horses who I feel have the best chance to win the race. what ever the odds. I will bet 50/50, or 60/40 I will bet win / place, place only, show only, Lots of across the board bets.
I'm lucky if I can do one or two races a day so basically once I do a race I put some kind of bet on it. I hit - win more than I bet- about 11-12 races in most of my 20 race cycle when i'm tired mad or just off I do bad
when I feel good I do good when I feel bad I get 7-8 or 9

Bill

[chris]

Been an interesting discussion. I've modeled and kept records right to the edge of exhaustion. It seemed most of my energy was spent maintaining accurate, some would say fastidious, track models, win models, and pace profiles. In the end, I wasn't using the models, they were using me. You could say I was leaving my fight in the Gym. So I did what any self respecting handicapper would do, I stopped doing them altogether.

Reading this thread has shaken my complacency and attitude about models and record keeping - a little loosing streak didn't hurt either - ironic choice of qualifiers, Little? I've never had a "little" loosing streak in my life. They tend to be memorable. So what I'm doing to make record keeping manageable, is reducing the volume of information I track to just those factors I believe are the essence of these programs. Remember this journey began using just three pieces of information; 1st call 2nd call, and final time.

Dusted off the Wagering Decision Form, took it to the printer and ran some copies. Turned it over, and added by hand, many of the factors from the old multi-track decision form. However, I changed the order of presentation to more closely mirror the RDSS presentation. Doing it by hand will force one to consider what really is important. My very first model tracked, EP, SP, AP, FW, FX, and %early. It worked. Added a few more items this time around, but in the spirit of manageability, and with homage to that old bromide - well mine anyway - that less is best, I believe I have a tool I can use comfortably.

So here's todays report. Wieghed down with my one page wagering form, went to the track instead of working from home. Monday is a quiet day at the local oval; don't function well in noisy settings. Did my handicapping - two tracks - as the races came up. Handicapped eight races, passed two, bet six, won two of the six, ran 3rd in two and was clueless in two. Both win prices were good $11.40 and $18.20. Bet two horses in three of the races (these include the two I won) sinlge bets in the others - they were the only overlays.

After each race I posted the information to the Wagering Decision Form. Kept all bets in $2.00 units, no exotics, that was painful for me, but reminded myself it was just for today, and not a lifetime - then again who knows? The unintended consequence of staying within the guidelines was that I was forced to slow down! Posting by hand will do that for you. Staying with win bets only is far less burdensome than manipulated all the possilbe permutations of a Superfecta.

I Bet a total of $20.00 (last of the heavy hitters) won $29.60, do the math if you must know the ROI, factor it by five (2 $10.00 win bets a race) annualize it, and it amounts to a nice bit of change. Going to stay on this track for a while.

Regards,
Chris

[tom]

I've been stuck at 64% for months!