Wednesday -- August 5, 2009 - Page 3 - Pace and Cap

classhandicapper · 08-05-2009, 04:15 PM

I know what you mean, but I almost never miss these kinds of things. I usually make a point of at least getting something in on the horse. I'm not having a good meet so far. So it stings a little. The good news is that my new watch list is producing flat bet profits without any handicapping so far. So I guess I should just take it as an encouraging sign and move on.

raceman5 · 08-05-2009, 04:16 PM

tfm could u share with us what you mean by wipe out horses? R7 Saratoga 9-1-7

tfm · 08-05-2009, 04:20 PM

The 1 in the 7th is an example. It's a race where all the other horses are losing ground in relation to the winner. The trick is to figure out which of them was a good setup and which wasn't. I hit enough of them but many get by me because they're too impossible to believe. Like the 45:1 that won the $500k stake at Woodbine over the weekend, that had just wiped-out a maiden claiming field. How do you bet that horse?

pktruckdriver · 08-05-2009, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raceman5

tfm could u share with us what you mean by wipe out horses? R7 Saratoga 9-1-7

Yes I was curious too, Wow the 9 Seminole Lass , how come??? Just curious again

Patrick

classhandicapper · 08-05-2009, 04:22 PM

I don't think Blewitt is a super experienced handicapper. I think he's getting "on the job" training from Serling. But I try not to criticize anyone because we all have different insights. The trick is to capitalize on what you do know and perhaps steal a few things from others, not to find other individuals' flaws. We all sound like fools from time to time when we talk about things outside out circle of competence.

I'm sure I sound like a dope when I talk about Sartin methodology, but I am open to learning from the experts here. Others may sound like dopes to me when they talk about comparative class handicapping because I've been studying that for decades.

As long as we both win, it's cool.

classhandicapper · 08-05-2009, 04:31 PM

TMF,

I don't know all the components of your "wipe out" horses, but I use a similar angle.

I have found that big winners that draw off through the stretch do better if you focus on the sub group of them that are lightly raced and that are not coming out of a race where they were the dominant speed against much weaker. Lots of times a dominant speed will torch the rest of the field with a pace that's fine for it, but too fast for the inferior competition, and then draw off. Those horses are often very good, but their form is clear and they get bet.

The ones that draw off under a more normal pace scenario are sometimes WAY better than their figures indicate because they only did some serious running in the last quarter mile, but if they are lightly raced, no one knows it yet. So the prices can be more attractive. The trick is to eliminate some of the ones that were just easy trip winners (like loose lead etc..).

tfm · 08-05-2009, 04:32 PM

That's fine but you and I aren't on a show playing the role of experts. Serling knows his **** when it comes to tripping but the other 2 are clueless. They shouldn't be allowed to talk about trips as neither is particular knowledgeable when it comes to them. There are people out there watching the show that are being influenced by their poor approach. They're both good at getting the Formulator stats and should stick to that.

P.S. there might be a speed/inside bias sprinting on the turf. Once it starts up there, it continues for weeks.

tfm · 08-05-2009, 04:40 PM

AP R6

#3, is very square at 11:1 and I can't resist playing

he comes from way back and there appears to be some speed in the race

take an ebox saver with the Calabrese chalk dropdown, the 4.

pktruckdriver · 08-05-2009, 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tfm

That's fine but you and I aren't on a show playing the role of experts. Serling knows his **** when it comes to tripping but the other 2 are clueless. They shouldn't be allowed to talk about trips as neither is particular knowledgeable when it comes to them. There are people out there watching the show that are being influenced by their poor approach. They're both good at getting the Formulator stats and should stick to that.

P.S. there might be a speed/inside bias sprinting on the turf. Once it starts up there, it continues for weeks.

Do you really feel the other 2 influence that many, now we all know how good Andy is, but the other 2 could never get me to change my mind, and how long was that 10 horse in race 7 scratched, what a foool I feel like, putting up a Pick 4 to a scratched horse as a single, too busy...

we could go 2 / all / 10 that might work, not that I am wagering today, as I will now win bet as I promised on here I would do, but I can still post my picks here anyway

Patrick

tfm · 08-05-2009, 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

Do you really feel the other 2 influence that many, now we all know how good Andy is, but the other 2 could never get me to change my mind,

The other two mimic Andy and someone new to the game would probably buy into it. I guarantee you that over 95% of those trip handicapping are focusing on trouble.

In the meantime, I've gone completely COLD. I have so much outside work that I just can't focus on betting.

08-05-2009, 04:31 PM	#26
classhandicapper AlwNW3X Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 47	TMF, I don't know all the components of your "wipe out" horses, but I use a similar angle. I have found that big winners that draw off through the stretch do better if you focus on the sub group of them that are lightly raced and that are not coming out of a race where they were the dominant speed against much weaker. Lots of times a dominant speed will torch the rest of the field with a pace that's fine for it, but too fast for the inferior competition, and then draw off. Those horses are often very good, but their form is clear and they get bet. The ones that draw off under a more normal pace scenario are sometimes WAY better than their figures indicate because they only did some serious running in the last quarter mile, but if they are lightly raced, no one knows it yet. So the prices can be more attractive. The trick is to eliminate some of the ones that were just easy trip winners (like loose lead etc..). Last edited by classhandicapper; 08-05-2009 at 04:40 PM.

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08-05-2009, 04:15 PM	#21
classhandicapper AlwNW3X Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 47	I know what you mean, but I almost never miss these kinds of things. I usually make a point of at least getting something in on the horse. I'm not having a good meet so far. So it stings a little. The good news is that my new watch list is producing flat bet profits without any handicapping so far. So I guess I should just take it as an encouraging sign and move on.

08-05-2009, 04:16 PM	#22
raceman5 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Largo Fl. Posts: 2,363	tfm could u share with us what you mean by wipe out horses? R7 Saratoga 9-1-7

08-05-2009, 04:20 PM	#23
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	The 1 in the 7th is an example. It's a race where all the other horses are losing ground in relation to the winner. The trick is to figure out which of them was a good setup and which wasn't. I hit enough of them but many get by me because they're too impossible to believe. Like the 45:1 that won the $500k stake at Woodbine over the weekend, that had just wiped-out a maiden claiming field. How do you bet that horse?

08-05-2009, 04:22 PM	#25
classhandicapper AlwNW3X Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 47	I don't think Blewitt is a super experienced handicapper. I think he's getting "on the job" training from Serling. But I try not to criticize anyone because we all have different insights. The trick is to capitalize on what you do know and perhaps steal a few things from others, not to find other individuals' flaws. We all sound like fools from time to time when we talk about things outside out circle of competence. I'm sure I sound like a dope when I talk about Sartin methodology, but I am open to learning from the experts here. Others may sound like dopes to me when they talk about comparative class handicapping because I've been studying that for decades. As long as we both win, it's cool.

08-05-2009, 04:32 PM	#27
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	That's fine but you and I aren't on a show playing the role of experts. Serling knows his **** when it comes to tripping but the other 2 are clueless. They shouldn't be allowed to talk about trips as neither is particular knowledgeable when it comes to them. There are people out there watching the show that are being influenced by their poor approach. They're both good at getting the Formulator stats and should stick to that. P.S. there might be a speed/inside bias sprinting on the turf. Once it starts up there, it continues for weeks.

08-05-2009, 04:40 PM	#28
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	AP R6 #3, is very square at 11:1 and I can't resist playing he comes from way back and there appears to be some speed in the race take an ebox saver with the Calabrese chalk dropdown, the 4.