Howard was ahead of his time

[tom]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

I
Statistics in the 60% range are hardly above the "chance" level of 50% for a coin toss.

Some listened to him.

What percentage of the time does the best early win?

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

Yes, and it proves out that those horses with a "class" edge win at a rate of almost 2-1 over the lesser animals in that "match up".

Howard Sartin had it right, and for many years I doubted it until I simply let go of all the horse baloney and accepted what he always said: "Class is speed and speed is class. All the rest is irrelevant."

Horses perform variably in response to their intrinsic abilities and form cycle. The HORSE runs the race not the trainer or the condition book.

[Tim Y]

A horse runs against a 1:11 2/5 intermediate time. That time was set by a horse who's ability THAT day, in THAT race allowed that to be the yardstick to compare the animal under consideration to be judged THAT DAY.

A single performance is fraught with potential illogical conclusions but the multiple performances of the PERFORMER will equal out that ingrained sample error.

The pace of each is predicted by the performers that are there that day at that phase of their form cycle. Horses run to their potentials and have NO idea what theoretical man made classification is overshadowing their physical efforts. The interactions of the relative pace capabilities of that group dictate, within a reasonable measure, the outcome of the various potentials that the individual performer CAN but does not always produce. The HORSE produces what it is capable of producing and NOT another single soul.

[Houndog]

What do we do with all the Breeder Cup horses that do not have any pacelines to compare? I suppose you can pretend they don't exist and ignore them.

Some of these horses win at good prices. This happens at other venues also.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Houndog

What do we do with all the Breeder Cup horses that do not have any pacelines to compare? I suppose you can pretend they don't exist and ignore them.

Without pace data, you guess, no differently than the crowd. Time and time again, talk to a group who HAD the winner last race and see what explanation THEY give you for that choice. It is a hodge podge of baloney from "it reminded me of my granddaughter's name to "I liked the color."

Superimpose a belief system on a situation and you can say that the Man in the Moon told you and it is just as logical.

No one could logically predict an Arcagnes, Last Tycoon, Lashkari etc.

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Houndog

What do we do with all the Breeder Cup horses that do not have any pacelines to compare? I suppose you can pretend they don't exist and ignore them.

Some of these horses win at good prices. This happens at other venues also.

Hi houndog

At the Woodlands seminar KC1991
Jim Bradshaw gives a presentation along with fellow Oklahoma
mafia member Tom Mcrea on how to construct a pace line
with only a final time Hat did this using the deceleration factor
which was part of the program EXDC The Deceleration factor you see for each horse is a tool to tell you the amount that you add or subtract from the final time or half mile time to make new times for horses stretching out or shortening in distance. Jim Bradshaw uses his intuition. work out figures
and final times from a 5 and 7 furlong race to construct a pace line

[Houndog]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

Without pace data, you guess, no differently than the crowd. Time and time again, talk to a group who HAD the winner last race and see what explanation THEY give you for that choice. It is a hodge podge of baloney from "it reminded me of my granddaughter's name to "I liked the color."

Superimpose a belief system on a situation and you can say that the Man in the Moon told you and it is just as logical.

No one could logically predict an Arcagnes, Last Tycoon, Lashkari etc.

The ignorance of the North American handicapper is hard to fathom, when, as in many other areas of their lives, they are clueless to what is happening in the rest of the world. I wrote an article in the 90's called Courses for Horses (appeared in THE BACKSTRETCH) and was really amazed at the feedback I got.

There is a huge thoroughbred world out there which functions independently of what goes on domestically.It would help for folks to have broader horizons in all aspects of how we share this earth.


Tim these are your words


starting to come to frution

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I believe the events of this year's WORLD CHMPIONSHIPS are the beginning of a need to "wake up" the North American breeding industry to the fact that STAMINA is disappering from their offspring.

Myself, and my good friend Erwin (leftcoastracing.com, a Hasting's website devoted to an aspect called his "stayers watch" for stamina horses and his lamenting, like I do, that it is disappering) have harped on it for years: breed speed to speed and eventually we are going to have 4 furlong horses. It is this aspect of racing that I HAVE EXLPOITED FOR YEARS, knowing that earlier horses have a huge advantage since stamina is disappearing in the breed. In 1991, in Unbridled's Kentucky Derby BLOODHORSE issue, the editor's published a long winded editorial I wrote about just this thing and received good feedback from reader's who agreed with my contention that without graded stakes stamina tests, the breed would ultimately be doomed. EQUATIONS need balance, and when speed is overwhelming this one and stamina is under represented, that equation just cannot endure.

If you do not provide a GRADED stakes platform to allow breeder's to understand where stamina lines come from at that level of competition, it will be just a guess as to where those genetic lines come from. The Breeder's Cup MARATHON was a real joke this year and all you had to do was bet all the European horses. THEIR idea of a marathon is the Ascot GOLD CUP, a race of 20 furlongs, and there are many of them. Muhannak was stamina laden with turf pedigree on the top and bottom and even the "dirt" is no longer sacrosanct to the North American speed types.

Time to wake up or the times for European dominance of these WORLD championships is just beginning.


Where is pace in this post Tim?

[Houndog]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi houndog

At the Woodlands seminar KC1991
Jim Bradshaw gives a presentation along with fellow Oklahoma
mafia member Tom Mcrea on how to construct a pace line
with only a final time Hat did this using the deceleration factor
which was part of the program EXDC The Deceleration factor you see for each horse is a tool to tell you the amount that you add or subtract from the final time or half mile time to make new times for horses stretching out or shortening in distance. Jim Bradshaw uses his intuition. work out figures
and final times from a 5 and 7 furlong race to construct a pace line

Bill I didn't know you could use intuition or creativity in handicapping. It defies logic.

[Tim Y]

Euro form translates to GUESSWORK on foreign soil just as Japanese form to Europe or U.S. to Hong Kong or Australian to Italian. That is not only MY opinion but that of several of my English friends, one of whom's family have been book maker's in and around Doncaster for the last 100 years and is a correspondent with The Racing Post who is bringing me a program from the Arc weekend in Paris coming up.

Did you MISS the word GUESS in that explanation?

[Houndog]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

Euro form translates to GUESSWORK on foreign soil just as Japanese form to Europe or U.S. to Hong Kong or Australian to Italian. That is not only MY opinion but that of several of my English friends, one of whom's family have been book maker's in and around Doncaster for the last 100 years and is a correspondent with The Racing Post who is bringing me a program from the Arc weekend in Paris coming up.

Did you MISS the word GUESS in that explanation?

Tim which explanation? You have had many of them. Anyone can disagree. English friends; quoting Einstein; etc. I know a bookmaker where I live also.