Quote:
Originally Posted by tfm
Addtiionally, the track(s) Benter was playing essentially had the same horses facing each other all year long. Moreover, he had a team working to get him very exact data. A lot easier to win under those conditions.
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tfm,
No question the homogeneity of the horse population helped Benter, but his methods are working just as well with the more diverse horse population in this country. I had some dealings with him about five years ago, acting as a liaison with people who were trying to set up Hong Kong style teams here. Some have quit but others are still going strong - one among many reasons the game has become so tough. Despite his 'strong form' information-gathering team, in the end, he had about the same ROI as Tom Brohamer, Dick Mitchell, Dick Schmidt, and other good professionals, which is by far the most significant factor in the long run. The one big edge he had over most horseplayers was that logit modeling, if done correctly, provides an extremely accurate estimate of a horse's true win probability, which allows for optimal Kelly betting.
I enjoy your posts.
Cheers,
B Jennet
10-31-2009, 05:54 PM
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