The Art Of Watching Races - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

Fast4522 · 02-21-2006, 07:46 PM

Ok,
My viewpoint is not shared by the methodology in general. I think Sartin Methodology today is only a name given to something that has morphed into many programs and not just the old ones which I still use. Sure folks want to keep the old ways alive and I also understand that, but read the start of the thread and pehaps notice sometime down the road in the post parade if a starter is doing what I mentioned in the post, notice it a few times and keep score of it and you will in fact find these things to be true. I did not learn them from the methodology but did share them in a what I though was a superb post. I am not saying old things do not work in sartin when in fact just about anything that was written 20 years ago in sartin still works. The things I mentioned in this post are olso old, maybe as much as the oldest racetracks are (where I picked them up), and also still work. Is the Sartin methodology only about what doc has put out? The answer is yes 20 years ago, but today I doubt it unless your total retro. I would suggest if you have a open mind, that you may do well with Val3 for many years from now as well. The program still works beautifully if you can figure out what the connections are doing in the race, not everyone is running to win. Racing Secretaries fill races with starters that are not well ment every day at every racetrack, which is what the post was inspired and the fact that I myself am not a wager capping fan. I have always thought and still do think the best horse in the race will run its best no matter what its odds are.

socantra · 02-22-2006, 12:16 AM

There's nothing wrong with trip handicapping, except that it requires frequent attendance at the track or the watching of hours of video replays.

Likewise, body language or physicality handicapping has its place, but is most effective at the track where you can view paddock and post parade close up. I still remember Trillis Parker's "tootsie rolls". I've also gone through a lot of Tackach stuff and find it fairly effective if I'm at the OTB with the nice big screen monitors, but it's of little use at home where I do most of my handicapping and wagering.

It's also extremely hard to transfer the skill by words alone. I don't think I've ever known anyone who became proficient at body language out of a book. It's a style that almost requires someone to physically show you and some people have a real hard time picking it up even then.

It's also far from foolproof and dangerous to apply from something as simple as a toss of the head, or a horse walking short in the post parade. Many seasoned old claimers are all but lame in the post parade and work it out in the warmup, and angry horses win races every day. I remember one oldhorse at Remington Park that contributed greatly to my income. If the horse looked normal in the paddock, keep your money in your pocket, but if it showed up trying to bite the trainer, savage the groom and go after the other horses, you could run to the window. It would usually continue its show thru the post parade, then settle down and warm up for the race. I'd watch people mark it off as it acted up and go put more money on it. That old horse had two speeds, off and pissed.

If it works for you, that's great. I'm not at the track often enough to get much out of it these days and I play too many different tracks to worry much about the connections. I find that wagercappping generally gets me enough long odds winners that I can wind up ahead of the game without worrying too much about the other stuff. Usually, it seems the more information I get, the more I second guess myself and the less effective I am.

dick...

Fast4522 · 02-22-2006, 05:44 AM

Wow, a completely intelligent open reply, I commend you Dick. Wager capping you have found to be within your style of betting where it is not in mine. Let me explain in detail, I do not bet the same amount every race, I am a bet a little to get a lot guy with the gimmicks generally. Often not betting the same type of bet in each race depending which pools I feel have value but not wager capping to win. Several races go along where I am game for $5 and $2 bets all day until I pick up on something that is often not sartin but use with the sartin in the race. Make no mistake when I do pick up on something in a race, I am not betting with the $2 & $5 mode, I am all out to take your money in the pools, meaning I am a fly on the wall waiting for the kill with much more bet. To stay in the black I only have to be right 50 % of the time, it only takes just one race for me and I do keep score to keep my mindset on the level.

admin · 02-22-2006, 06:37 PM

Thanks Fast I can see your point and I know from watching you bet many times You sure do attack races

However please think about the amount you or anyone bets is a very personal thing The $2 -$5 better is betting that not to be reckless
I would tend to think they are betteing what little they can
A sort of feel that not too many people go to the track with a bank roll
big enough to bet $50 win, Trifecta boxes .10 supers 4 horse exacta boxes but bets are betting $5 win bets because they don't care
I think everyone is doing what they can with what they have

Just as side when you use a persons name is it not proper to us a capital S for Sartin ?
GS
Bill

Fast4522 · 02-23-2006, 01:55 AM

I don't attack the races, as the saying goes you can beat a race but you can not beat the races, I did not coin it. Good plays come along two to three times a week maybe four times if you are lucky enough to spot them. I am not talking about wager capping or win betting where you get the double digit winner. I am talking about W2G or my favorite, a just shy of $600 tri that you have more than once. Sometimes a 2-1 chalk with bombs for second,third, and forth. I really doubt the game can be had by just win bets which often go like your up $100 or down $100 on any given day. Instead I think the only way to make consistantly is the big score. I can sit all week in a sports book, and if I go for 3 races all out that week I am lucky. In general I bet short amounts that are safe in pools where I find value until good spots present themselves. I do not do 20 race cycles or anything robotic for that matter. I do not expect to make more money at the track or simulcast more than what I do for a living. Handicapping is only one side of the coin with the where the more important side of betting. And in between its the Art Of Watching Races like the start of the thread. And just for you I did not use anyones name which I had to worrie if it was capital or not and what does it matter anyway.

shoeless · 02-23-2006, 06:20 AM

Fast you made some good points .Shoeless

admin · 02-23-2006, 06:23 PM

Fast
Just think Its polite and good manners
to use a persons name in a capital
Sartin is a mans name not a trade mark no worry
just looking for a little respect for a older man who gave much more than he had to to people who wanted to win
You are a great handicapper. Thats is fantastic. If you can teach others
thats even better
Thanks for you input

Bill

tompkins · 02-23-2006, 09:58 PM

Lawlor productions had a good tape on trips by Paul Mellos and available here: http://www.casinocom.com/videos/videos.html.

Only problem is that many an animal OVERCOMES the bad trip and often TOO much is made of an incident and folks put too much emphasis on them

traynor · 03-21-2006, 01:24 AM

socantra wrote:

It is not an isolated skill. That is, you can develop a facility to "see more" by paying more attention to things that are dynamic and "finely-grained." From my own experience, the biggest jump in my observational skills in trip handicapping came as a direct result of an interest in Olympic-grade gymnastics and figure skating. The more I looked at the performances from the standpoint of a judge, the more I was able to see in horse races.

The key skill is developing a state of focused concentration that is both tightly focused in scope, and relaxed enough to pick up fine details. Where most people go wrong is that they try too hard.
Good Luck

02-21-2006, 07:46 PM	#11
Fast4522 Former member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Gun Country Posts: 363	Sartin Methodology Ok, My viewpoint is not shared by the methodology in general. I think Sartin Methodology today is only a name given to something that has morphed into many programs and not just the old ones which I still use. Sure folks want to keep the old ways alive and I also understand that, but read the start of the thread and pehaps notice sometime down the road in the post parade if a starter is doing what I mentioned in the post, notice it a few times and keep score of it and you will in fact find these things to be true. I did not learn them from the methodology but did share them in a what I though was a superb post. I am not saying old things do not work in sartin when in fact just about anything that was written 20 years ago in sartin still works. The things I mentioned in this post are olso old, maybe as much as the oldest racetracks are (where I picked them up), and also still work. Is the Sartin methodology only about what doc has put out? The answer is yes 20 years ago, but today I doubt it unless your total retro. I would suggest if you have a open mind, that you may do well with Val3 for many years from now as well. The program still works beautifully if you can figure out what the connections are doing in the race, not everyone is running to win. Racing Secretaries fill races with starters that are not well ment every day at every racetrack, which is what the post was inspired and the fact that I myself am not a wager capping fan. I have always thought and still do think the best horse in the race will run its best no matter what its odds are. Last edited by Fast4522; 02-21-2006 at 07:51 PM.

02-22-2006, 06:37 PM	#14
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	Thanks Fast I can see your point and I know from watching you bet many times You sure do attack races However please think about the amount you or anyone bets is a very personal thing The $2 -$5 better is betting that not to be reckless I would tend to think they are betteing what little they can A sort of feel that not too many people go to the track with a bank roll big enough to bet $50 win, Trifecta boxes .10 supers 4 horse exacta boxes but bets are betting $5 win bets because they don't care I think everyone is doing what they can with what they have Just as side when you use a persons name is it not proper to us a capital S for Sartin ? GS Bill Last edited by admin; 02-22-2006 at 06:39 PM.

02-23-2006, 01:55 AM	#15
Fast4522 Former member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Gun Country Posts: 363	I don't attack the races, as the saying goes you can beat a race but you can not beat the races, I did not coin it. Good plays come along two to three times a week maybe four times if you are lucky enough to spot them. I am not talking about wager capping or win betting where you get the double digit winner. I am talking about W2G or my favorite, a just shy of $600 tri that you have more than once. Sometimes a 2-1 chalk with bombs for second,third, and forth. I really doubt the game can be had by just win bets which often go like your up $100 or down $100 on any given day. Instead I think the only way to make consistantly is the big score. I can sit all week in a sports book, and if I go for 3 races all out that week I am lucky. In general I bet short amounts that are safe in pools where I find value until good spots present themselves. I do not do 20 race cycles or anything robotic for that matter. I do not expect to make more money at the track or simulcast more than what I do for a living. Handicapping is only one side of the coin with the where the more important side of betting. And in between its the Art Of Watching Races like the start of the thread. And just for you I did not use anyones name which I had to worrie if it was capital or not and what does it matter anyway. Last edited by Fast4522; 02-23-2006 at 01:59 AM.

02-23-2006, 09:58 PM	#18
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	Trips Lawlor productions had a good tape on trips by Paul Mellos and available here: http://www.casinocom.com/videos/videos.html. Only problem is that many an animal OVERCOMES the bad trip and often TOO much is made of an incident and folks put too much emphasis on them __________________ velocititian

03-21-2006, 01:24 AM	#19
traynor AlwNW1X Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 13	trip handicapping socantra wrote: It is not an isolated skill. That is, you can develop a facility to "see more" by paying more attention to things that are dynamic and "finely-grained." From my own experience, the biggest jump in my observational skills in trip handicapping came as a direct result of an interest in Olympic-grade gymnastics and figure skating. The more I looked at the performances from the standpoint of a judge, the more I was able to see in horse races. The key skill is developing a state of focused concentration that is both tightly focused in scope, and relaxed enough to pick up fine details. Where most people go wrong is that they try too hard. Good Luck

02-22-2006, 12:16 AM	#12
socantra Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Norman, OK Posts: 387	There's nothing wrong with trip handicapping, except that it requires frequent attendance at the track or the watching of hours of video replays. Likewise, body language or physicality handicapping has its place, but is most effective at the track where you can view paddock and post parade close up. I still remember Trillis Parker's "tootsie rolls". I've also gone through a lot of Tackach stuff and find it fairly effective if I'm at the OTB with the nice big screen monitors, but it's of little use at home where I do most of my handicapping and wagering. It's also extremely hard to transfer the skill by words alone. I don't think I've ever known anyone who became proficient at body language out of a book. It's a style that almost requires someone to physically show you and some people have a real hard time picking it up even then. It's also far from foolproof and dangerous to apply from something as simple as a toss of the head, or a horse walking short in the post parade. Many seasoned old claimers are all but lame in the post parade and work it out in the warmup, and angry horses win races every day. I remember one oldhorse at Remington Park that contributed greatly to my income. If the horse looked normal in the paddock, keep your money in your pocket, but if it showed up trying to bite the trainer, savage the groom and go after the other horses, you could run to the window. It would usually continue its show thru the post parade, then settle down and warm up for the race. I'd watch people mark it off as it acted up and go put more money on it. That old horse had two speeds, off and pissed. If it works for you, that's great. I'm not at the track often enough to get much out of it these days and I play too many different tracks to worry much about the connections. I find that wagercappping generally gets me enough long odds winners that I can wind up ahead of the game without worrying too much about the other stuff. Usually, it seems the more information I get, the more I second guess myself and the less effective I am. dick...

02-22-2006, 05:44 AM	#13
Fast4522 Former member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Gun Country Posts: 363	Wow, a completely intelligent open reply, I commend you Dick. Wager capping you have found to be within your style of betting where it is not in mine. Let me explain in detail, I do not bet the same amount every race, I am a bet a little to get a lot guy with the gimmicks generally. Often not betting the same type of bet in each race depending which pools I feel have value but not wager capping to win. Several races go along where I am game for $5 and $2 bets all day until I pick up on something that is often not sartin but use with the sartin in the race. Make no mistake when I do pick up on something in a race, I am not betting with the $2 & $5 mode, I am all out to take your money in the pools, meaning I am a fly on the wall waiting for the kill with much more bet. To stay in the black I only have to be right 50 % of the time, it only takes just one race for me and I do keep score to keep my mindset on the level.

02-23-2006, 06:20 AM	#16
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,646	Fast you made some good points .Shoeless

02-23-2006, 06:23 PM	#17
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	Fast Just think Its polite and good manners to use a persons name in a capital Sartin is a mans name not a trade mark no worry just looking for a little respect for a older man who gave much more than he had to to people who wanted to win You are a great handicapper. Thats is fantastic. If you can teach others thats even better Thanks for you input Bill