A Decision Model that is Overwhelming / Tampa Bay 6f / Tool - "Vector" - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

traynor · 03-22-2006, 12:53 AM

RichieP wrote:

A suggestion: Do a search on Google or Google Scholar for Tversky and Law of Small Numbers. You may find it helpful. You may also find a book called "Decision Traps," by Russo and Schoemaker even more useful.
Good Luck

RichieP · 03-22-2006, 05:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by traynor

RichieP wrote:

A suggestion: Do a search on Google or Google Scholar for Tversky and Law of Small Numbers. You may find it helpful. You may also find a book called "Decision Traps," by Russo and Schoemaker even more useful.
Good Luck

To be honest with you I am NOT very well educated.I am a street guy who depends on common sense and intuition to survive.

These works are probably going to steer me in YOUR direction of long term forecasting and detailed data analysis which is FINE if it works for you. Most of it is going to be over my head "read-wise anyway though I appreciate the feedback.

I don't believe in this long term stuff. Today's race is a unique event never run before including the horse's and their form cycles.

I also have the benefit of seeing BIG success at this game FIRST HAND so I KNOW there is more than ONE way to skin the cat.

Richie

traynor · 03-22-2006, 11:21 AM

My suggestions are both easy reads--"Decision Traps" is a small paperback written like a pop "self-help" book. Tversky's varous writings are only important for the first few pages (typical of academic writing), in which the ideas are clearly explained. The rest of academic papers can be (and ususally are, except by someone trying to poke holes in the theories) ignored.

The biggest jump in my handicapping skills came not as a result of college or university instruction, but as a result of meeting a team of Argentinean professional bettors who used a completely different approach to handicapping than anything I had ever seen before. All the statistics, research methods, research design, and data modeling classes taught me how to analyze information and keep records. The Argentineans taught me how to analyze horses and horse races.

The person who taught me the most about "picking winners" was an Argentine who could barely read and write, and considered both a waste of time. What he COULD do was watch races and describe in astounding detail what was actually taking place.
Good Luck

traynor · 03-22-2006, 02:58 PM

After posting a comment about expertise, I ran across this on PA:

It is called Racing Decision Support System or R.D.S.S. for short. It's creator is Ted Craven.

1) Fully Automated downloading of multiple data sources and results

2) "Intelligence" built into the software allowing it to think for you pointing to a "virtual" race card of favorable races based on your performance history

3) Direct Live odds going directly to factor analysis screen allowing user to determine if there is enough actual value to support factor being considered.

4) Complete database capabilities.

Many other tools I don't want to get into right now as the software is appx 4-6 months away from being ready for display.

Will be debuted with minimum 60 day no cost trial for interested users.

Richie Pizzicara>

That sounds like a pretty sophisticated app for a "street guy." No insult intended, but it strikes me that the "street guy" linguistic constructs imply an an innate rhetorical strategy (and marketing plan) that may be a bit more sophisticated than the language choices might indicate. Or is this someone else?

If you are the same person who is developing "RDSS" let me know; my specialty is very sophisticated DSS apps for very professional bettors intent on getting the best possible information. If you are using short-term, "Brohamer"-type models you are going to have a very large problem in the profitability department.
Good Luck

RichieP · 03-22-2006, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by traynor

That sounds like a pretty sophisticated app for a "street guy." No insult intended, but it strikes me that the "street guy" linguistic constructs imply an an innate rhetorical strategy (and marketing plan) that may be a bit more sophisticated than the language choices might indicate. Or is this someone else?

If you are the same person who is developing "RDSS" let me know; my specialty is very sophisticated DSS apps for very professional bettors intent on getting the best possible information. If you are using short-term, "Brohamer"-type models you are going to have a very large problem in the profitability department.
Good Luck

I am Shanta on PA website.

No I am not the developer of RDSS. Read the post carefully.

Richie

traynor · 03-23-2006, 02:41 AM

RichieP wrote: No I am not the developer of RDSS. Read the post carefully.

I assume that when someone is privy to details of an upcoming app, they are involved in some way, directly or indirectly. That causes me to consider the comments in a different light. Not necessarily good or bad--just different.
Good Luck

03-22-2006, 12:53 AM	#11
traynor AlwNW1X Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 13	small numbers RichieP wrote: A suggestion: Do a search on Google or Google Scholar for Tversky and Law of Small Numbers. You may find it helpful. You may also find a book called "Decision Traps," by Russo and Schoemaker even more useful. Good Luck

03-22-2006, 11:21 AM	#13
traynor AlwNW1X Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 13	levels of knowledge My suggestions are both easy reads--"Decision Traps" is a small paperback written like a pop "self-help" book. Tversky's varous writings are only important for the first few pages (typical of academic writing), in which the ideas are clearly explained. The rest of academic papers can be (and ususally are, except by someone trying to poke holes in the theories) ignored. The biggest jump in my handicapping skills came not as a result of college or university instruction, but as a result of meeting a team of Argentinean professional bettors who used a completely different approach to handicapping than anything I had ever seen before. All the statistics, research methods, research design, and data modeling classes taught me how to analyze information and keep records. The Argentineans taught me how to analyze horses and horse races. The person who taught me the most about "picking winners" was an Argentine who could barely read and write, and considered both a waste of time. What he COULD do was watch races and describe in astounding detail what was actually taking place. Good Luck

03-22-2006, 02:58 PM	#14
traynor AlwNW1X Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 13	street guy linguistics After posting a comment about expertise, I ran across this on PA: It is called Racing Decision Support System or R.D.S.S. for short. It's creator is Ted Craven. 1) Fully Automated downloading of multiple data sources and results 2) "Intelligence" built into the software allowing it to think for you pointing to a "virtual" race card of favorable races based on your performance history 3) Direct Live odds going directly to factor analysis screen allowing user to determine if there is enough actual value to support factor being considered. 4) Complete database capabilities. Many other tools I don't want to get into right now as the software is appx 4-6 months away from being ready for display. Will be debuted with minimum 60 day no cost trial for interested users. Richie Pizzicara> That sounds like a pretty sophisticated app for a "street guy." No insult intended, but it strikes me that the "street guy" linguistic constructs imply an an innate rhetorical strategy (and marketing plan) that may be a bit more sophisticated than the language choices might indicate. Or is this someone else? If you are the same person who is developing "RDSS" let me know; my specialty is very sophisticated DSS apps for very professional bettors intent on getting the best possible information. If you are using short-term, "Brohamer"-type models you are going to have a very large problem in the profitability department. Good Luck Last edited by traynor; 03-22-2006 at 03:00 PM.

03-23-2006, 02:41 AM	#16
traynor AlwNW1X Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 13	developer RichieP wrote: No I am not the developer of RDSS. Read the post carefully. I assume that when someone is privy to details of an upcoming app, they are involved in some way, directly or indirectly. That causes me to consider the comments in a different light. Not necessarily good or bad--just different. Good Luck