New Year's Eve - 6f - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 12-31-2009, 04:54 AM

Morning everyone and have a great day/night! If you are heading out to watch the ball drop remember it's amateur night so be careful of those around you.

Good stuff yesterday I see! Pete nails both races and everyone did great

Aqueduct's 5th race going 6f

Same setup as yesterday with tandems being shown on middle tab

Race conditions and pps for the field

RichieP · 12-31-2009, 04:56 AM

...

RichieP · 12-31-2009, 04:57 AM

..

raceman5 · 12-31-2009, 10:19 AM

i'll take the 2

PeteC · 12-31-2009, 12:14 PM

This looks like another fun race...

First, running styles:

1- Pre
2- Ear 22.4 45.2 last race before tiring to third
3- Ugly-OUT
4- Sus
5- Ear shipper from tracks I'm not familiar with - 22.3 46.5 last out and 22 45.8 in line 7
6- Ear 22.7 46.4 last race before finishing second
7- P/S
8- E/P
9- P/S
10- Ear almost held on vs 22.4 46 last out. battled thru 22.2 44.9 in line 8, but has only won with a clear lead early.
11- E/P
12- Pre

I feel this race will run ote, with #10, although the best early, probably not getting his comfort zone lead today. I'll look for an ote runner who can do well vs a 22.4 45.2 pace.

#1 moved 5-4-3 vs today's pace last out then faded to 4th. ran 3-2-2-2 vs similar in line 5.

#4 ran 6-6-4-2 in line 2 vs today's pace but what happened last time?

#12 Feels like he might be sitting in the best spot based on early positions vs similar first calls. However, comparing him to the others on the inner tracks races, his pace of race seems a little slow.

I'm down to these three. No spot play for me, but I'd favor the 12, then 1 or 4.

mikesal57 · 12-31-2009, 12:28 PM

OK..my take...even though I gave up on NY tracks cause I cant sniff a winner here..thxs friend!!

Projected pace....from the 10...22.4.. 46.0.....times will be in tenths like its shown..I didnt use the Penn horse because of the lower class and faster track he came from...I dont know if you guys do it like this but I would like your input on how you handle it..

tandems ..How can u eliminate horses that take turns beating each other?..I will do the most obvious ones..

Eliminate: 3-7-9

1) p..ran once vs this pace..nothing......out
2) e/p.has handled this pace................in
4) s...has ran vs this pace and came in 3rd by 3 or more lts...out
5) e...has won vs this pace........in
6) e..has won vs pace...in
8) e/p...has run 2nd and 3rd vs pace....in
10) e..pacesetter...in
11) e/p ..has won vs pace..in
12) p..has placed vs pace...in

2-5-6-8-10-11-12..

I think race will be OTE cause the early horse needs open lts to win
5-6-10 out

2-8-11-12

#2 out..not the horse he used to be

8-11-12...in that order

gl and thxs richie

mike

mikesal57 · 12-31-2009, 12:29 PM

yeah ..Pete...we have the field covered again..lol

Bill Lyster · 12-31-2009, 01:30 PM

I agree with the OTE aspect of this race. The big questions for me come from the 4 and 11. What happened last race. 4 is taking big class drop as he should off its last. 11 could be the best presser but last was a pull up. Also taking a class drop, but note this is the top APV/class horse. 2nd back was 28 days ago and gave hints of former self.

I don't see any of the rest of the EP or P types having enough punch to handle this pace. both the 4 and 11 are comfortable in mid pack. So my picks are w/p on 4 and win 11 with exacta box.

Good luck in the new year,

mikesal57 · 12-31-2009, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

I agree with the OTE aspect of this race. The big questions for me come from the 4 and 11. What happened last race. 4 is taking big class drop as he should off its last. 11 could be the best presser but last was a pull up. 2nd back was 28 days ago and gave hints of former self.

I don't see any of the rest of the EP or P types having enough punch to handle this pace. both the 4 and 11 are comfortable in mid pack. So my picks are w/p on 4 and win 11 with exacta box.

Good luckin the new year

thxs Bill...Hows the weather?..it snowed here again...

PeteC · 12-31-2009, 02:05 PM

#4 and #7 are scratched according to Youbet.

Good luck everyone and thanks Richie for posting this race!

12-31-2009, 04:57 AM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Aqu Race 5 cont .. Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

12-31-2009, 12:28 PM	#6
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	OK..my take...even though I gave up on NY tracks cause I cant sniff a winner here..thxs friend!! Projected pace....from the 10...22.4.. 46.0.....times will be in tenths like its shown..I didnt use the Penn horse because of the lower class and faster track he came from...I dont know if you guys do it like this but I would like your input on how you handle it.. tandems ..How can u eliminate horses that take turns beating each other?..I will do the most obvious ones.. Eliminate: 3-7-9 1) p..ran once vs this pace..nothing......out 2) e/p.has handled this pace................in 4) s...has ran vs this pace and came in 3rd by 3 or more lts...out 5) e...has won vs this pace........in 6) e..has won vs pace...in 8) e/p...has run 2nd and 3rd vs pace....in 10) e..pacesetter...in 11) e/p ..has won vs pace..in 12) p..has placed vs pace...in 2-5-6-8-10-11-12.. I think race will be OTE cause the early horse needs open lts to win 5-6-10 out 2-8-11-12 #2 out..not the horse he used to be 8-11-12...in that order gl and thxs richie mike __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

12-31-2009, 01:30 PM	#8
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,491	I agree with the OTE aspect of this race. The big questions for me come from the 4 and 11. What happened last race. 4 is taking big class drop as he should off its last. 11 could be the best presser but last was a pull up. Also taking a class drop, but note this is the top APV/class horse. 2nd back was 28 days ago and gave hints of former self. I don't see any of the rest of the EP or P types having enough punch to handle this pace. both the 4 and 11 are comfortable in mid pack. So my picks are w/p on 4 and win 11 with exacta box. Good luck in the new year, Last edited by Bill Lyster; 12-31-2009 at 01:32 PM. Reason: added comments

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12-31-2009, 04:54 AM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	New Year's Eve - 6f Morning everyone and have a great day/night! If you are heading out to watch the ball drop remember it's amateur night so be careful of those around you. Good stuff yesterday I see! Pete nails both races and everyone did great Aqueduct's 5th race going 6f Same setup as yesterday with tandems being shown on middle tab Race conditions and pps for the field Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

12-31-2009, 04:56 AM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Aqu Race 5 cont ... Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

12-31-2009, 10:19 AM	#4
raceman5 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Largo Fl. Posts: 2,363	Aqu i'll take the 2

12-31-2009, 12:14 PM	#5
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	This looks like another fun race... First, running styles: 1- Pre 2- Ear 22.4 45.2 last race before tiring to third 3- Ugly-OUT 4- Sus 5- Ear shipper from tracks I'm not familiar with - 22.3 46.5 last out and 22 45.8 in line 7 6- Ear 22.7 46.4 last race before finishing second 7- P/S 8- E/P 9- P/S 10- Ear almost held on vs 22.4 46 last out. battled thru 22.2 44.9 in line 8, but has only won with a clear lead early. 11- E/P 12- Pre I feel this race will run ote, with #10, although the best early, probably not getting his comfort zone lead today. I'll look for an ote runner who can do well vs a 22.4 45.2 pace. #1 moved 5-4-3 vs today's pace last out then faded to 4th. ran 3-2-2-2 vs similar in line 5. #4 ran 6-6-4-2 in line 2 vs today's pace but what happened last time? #12 Feels like he might be sitting in the best spot based on early positions vs similar first calls. However, comparing him to the others on the inner tracks races, his pace of race seems a little slow. I'm down to these three. No spot play for me, but I'd favor the 12, then 1 or 4.

12-31-2009, 12:29 PM	#7
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	yeah ..Pete...we have the field covered again..lol __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

12-31-2009, 02:05 PM	#10
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Late scratches #4 and #7 are scratched according to Youbet. Good luck everyone and thanks Richie for posting this race!