To Pass or To Play, could you help me decide?

[lsosa54]

As a simple example, take a look at Richie's Indiana Downs thread in the Matcher's section. The 1st two ML favorites in an 8 furlong race were both sprinters whom in their last 10 races, showed no race longer than 6.5 furlongs. Can they win a route? Maybe, but as favorites, that's a chink in the armor. Add pace and race shape considerations, and the chinks grow larger.