Jay and the Fat Man Woodbine Wed. - Page 4 - Pace and Cap

tfm · 07-07-2010, 09:10 PM

R6:

#1 is the (lone) speed but I don't know if she can wire here or even hold for 2nd.

#3, figures strong off her last race but not other races and her last one was an off the turfer -- then again, most of the field is coming out of that race.

#5, has some nice efforts but doesn't like to win

#6, typical last mover that can't win without a HUGE ESCORT -- not happening here.

#2, has TWO huge off the pace races late last year. Would bet her to win but she's getting late action and won't be the 10:1 I need.

I think this is between the 2, 3, and 5, with the 5 not liking to win, and the 3 ridiculously low at 9:5 (off that single race). Way to go is a 2 number exacta: 2 / 3, 5 (both paying nicely)

Jay Kassa · 07-07-2010, 09:18 PM

the

was annoying as hell, but it turned out not to matter. alive to the pick3 if the

wins the 7th race.

EDIT - ALL I HAD IN THE 6TH ITSELF WAS 5 TO SHW ON 1

Bill V. · 07-07-2010, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V.

1 and 2 for me

Thats a nice show price Jay

Jay Kassa · 07-07-2010, 09:27 PM

The 3 in the 6th (nice lady) didn't do much running, good call. And they had an article on her in DRF.

I can't believe my

is 9:2 this sucks.

tfm · 07-07-2010, 09:39 PM

This is an interesting race. Conventional trip handicapping tells you that the 3, the chalk, had an absolutely perfect inside drafting trip (until she entered) last out. Fat Chart says that she moved too soon. The 4 and the 5 are also coming out of that race, both after nice maiden wins. The 5 didn't really run a lick and the 4 was chasing widest and had no shot (after a very nice fighter win previously).

Now, this race is 1/16th less than that one and should fall right into the 3's lap. Especially as there figures to be pace by the 6, who can't go beyond 5.5F. Can't bet to win at 2:1, however.

But I think the 3 wins this one and the 1, 4 or 5 (least probable) are 2nd.

Bill V. · 07-07-2010, 09:42 PM

gonna pass this one

rooting for you guys

Jay Kassa · 07-07-2010, 09:42 PM

with the underlay on my 1 and alive to the pick3($2=200) for

bet the following

$20 win on

,

$10 win on

tfm · 07-07-2010, 09:44 PM

6 is NOT winning this race. There's a bias but it's not that strong.

Jay Kassa · 07-07-2010, 09:49 PM

OUCH@ the 6 getting CRUSHED with late money after I bet @ 2-1

somebody was real sharp??? that doesn't look good when late money crushes a horse late and he has it that easy...

tfm · 07-07-2010, 09:49 PM

This is the NEW MTH. How the **** does this horse get 6.5F? This is like Daniel Be Good getting 7F on Sunday.

07-07-2010, 09:39 PM	#35
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	This is an interesting race. Conventional trip handicapping tells you that the 3, the chalk, had an absolutely perfect inside drafting trip (until she entered) last out. Fat Chart says that she moved too soon. The 4 and the 5 are also coming out of that race, both after nice maiden wins. The 5 didn't really run a lick and the 4 was chasing widest and had no shot (after a very nice fighter win previously). Now, this race is 1/16th less than that one and should fall right into the 3's lap. Especially as there figures to be pace by the 6, who can't go beyond 5.5F. Can't bet to win at 2:1, however. But I think the 3 wins this one and the 1, 4 or 5 (least probable) are 2nd. Last edited by tfm; 07-07-2010 at 09:43 PM.

07-07-2010, 09:42 PM	#36
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	pass gonna pass this one rooting for you guys

07-07-2010, 09:10 PM	#31
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	R6: #1 is the (lone) speed but I don't know if she can wire here or even hold for 2nd. #3, figures strong off her last race but not other races and her last one was an off the turfer -- then again, most of the field is coming out of that race. #5, has some nice efforts but doesn't like to win #6, typical last mover that can't win without a HUGE ESCORT -- not happening here. #2, has TWO huge off the pace races late last year. Would bet her to win but she's getting late action and won't be the 10:1 I need. I think this is between the 2, 3, and 5, with the 5 not liking to win, and the 3 ridiculously low at 9:5 (off that single race). Way to go is a 2 number exacta: 2 / 3, 5 (both paying nicely)

07-07-2010, 09:18 PM	#32
Jay Kassa AlwNW2X Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 24	the was annoying as hell, but it turned out not to matter. alive to the pick3 if the wins the 7th race. EDIT - ALL I HAD IN THE 6TH ITSELF WAS 5 TO SHW ON 1

07-07-2010, 09:27 PM	#34
Jay Kassa AlwNW2X Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 24	The 3 in the 6th (nice lady) didn't do much running, good call. And they had an article on her in DRF. I can't believe my is 9:2 this sucks.

07-07-2010, 09:44 PM	#38
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	6 is NOT winning this race. There's a bias but it's not that strong.

07-07-2010, 09:49 PM	#39
Jay Kassa AlwNW2X Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 24	OUCH@ the 6 getting CRUSHED with late money after I bet @ 2-1 somebody was real sharp??? that doesn't look good when late money crushes a horse late and he has it that easy...