E/L 2.0 at Woodbine (April 3)

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by rmath

9/10 & 8/9at WO is very impressive. Did you also run these 4 thru RDSS to see how they ranked on BL/BL & V/DC.

Richard,

In fact I did only the Florida Derby Saturday at GP (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...57&postcount=4) where Dialed In ranked 2nd BLBL (effectively, tied 1st) and tied first VDC. I didn't work any other GP or WO races Saturday or Sunday selecting pacelines. In general, I have found BL and VDC and a CR Class Rating approach gets roughly the same contenders 60-70% of the time. However, since BL is sensitive to Total Energy and my own line selection strategy sensitive to recency, when the contenders diverge (between E/L2 and BL/BL) I want to investigate why, because I am being shown Early or Late ability sometimes from further back in a horse's performances - which performance may be relevant to the Matchup today.

I welcome anyone else's comparisons between the posted GP and WO screenshots and their existing RDSS analysis!

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Ted

at this stage of the program which number did you use for the best/worst Speed Rating, the raw speed rating, the adjusted speed rating or the best/worst perceptor rating?

Thanks

Bill,

I started off using the TrackMaster (Equibase) Speed Ratings because they are fairly public and widely used and others who didn't use adjusted RDSS numbers could comment on them (e.g. Dave S). Also, they are on a reasonably similar scale to DRF, Beyer, HDW, etc and the guidelines about gaps between SR points might be applicable.

Moving along, I think I'll be using some (or all) of Adjusted Total Energy, Adjusted SR, or Perceptor Total instead - at least, comparing their results to what I've seen so far. I also believe the same measuring system can measure a component of Late energy to be mixed in somewhere and to be given extra application for those horses designated Late. I'm experimenting - my favourite thing!

As Socantra pointed out elsewhere, and as those who are studying it so far will know, the interesting thing is that the Early and Late analyses come from a look at the horse's whole performance and not just one paceline. It is amusing (though understandable from a marketing point of view) that Dave proclaims that this involves 'no paceline selection', as if the relevant information were magically found in the Earnings box. In fact, if you look at the Hi and Lo Speed Ratings, and compare them for each horse to its Past Performance lines, you can see clearly which individual pacelines were selected automatically to derive the Hi and Lo SR numbers. That is one of the valuable improvements here: it's another automated paceline selection approach based on some mathematics for measuring ranges of values - and then some clever subsequent sorting and filtering by Early and Late running style groupings.

Just like ANY other automated line selection strategy - of which RDSS 2 has several. When you get a strategy you like (either a canned one, or a user-tweakable one - I'm trying for both), the pacelines and every analysis based on pacelines get selected automatically when the race comes up. For 1 race or for 200 races per day. New and improved: RDSS 2.0 featuring absolutely no paceline selection (except for the lines you tell it to select for you, or which you prudently override ). Maybe I need a better marketing manager!

I appreciate Dave laying out the mechanics and many examples of this approach for all to use manually - though manual calculation, just like manual data entry, gets old really fast. Software implementation is a natural next step, as HSH users know. And soon RDSS users.

No disrespect intended to Dave's proposition that it's not based on paceline selection (but it is). And it's worth studying further.

Ted

[cdax]

I see how you can make a case that Dave's system actually is based on paceline selection, and I never saw it that way.

To me, I'm selecting pacelines on how I believe the horse will run today. Using Dave's (by extreme example), if using the 3rd high reg sort and this horse has three 85 sr's, one where he ran as an E, one as a closer and one race he finished 5th, then which paceline is it?

I contend that it is solely to pick the fastest of the early or late group.

Either way we see it, it seems to work very well.

Chris

ps. If you need anyone to Beta test just this portion of RDSS 2.0, I'd be willing to help.

[Mr.Pagine]

Ted,

These screenshots look great - FANTASTIC JOB. I am looking forwrad to the release.

Happy Punting,

JD Lee

[dlivery]

Hi


Just say thanks for all of your help when ever it was needed. Currently I will hold off subscribing until the new release as I can go over my records for the year and review my account for strengths and weaknesses