NewPace using Adjusted Speed Ratings

[botc]

Ted, let me first apologize for not knowing how to post such a long message on the board. I thought it might be best to let you review first and decide what if anything of my test you wanted to post.

First let me say that I received my video from Dave S. on Wed. and worked CD Friday card 6-03 on Thurs using the worksheet and doing it long form.
A lot to put into a simple mind in a short amount of time. I had intended to bet real money but I soon realized my grasp had exceeded my reach and rather than
muddle up the study with subjective handicapping on my part the team would be better served by me making sure all the numbers were correct so smarter people
than I could weigh the results.

First race:

Current EL rankings were: E1=#6 E2=#5 L1=#4 L2=#2
TM adj sp ratings : E1=#5 E2=#6 L1=#2 L2=#4 results 2-6-3-4

slightly different order but same horses picked. stay with me there's more
POR was different
#6 DOM
Second race

Current EL ranking were: E1=#5 E2=#4 L1=#1 L2=3
TM Adj. sp E1=#5 E2=#4 L1=#1 L2=6 actual results were 2-6-5-4

the same except the #6 picked as L2 that ran second at 13-1
POR was same
interesting

Third Race

Current EL E1=#6 E2=4 L1=#1 L2=#5
adj sp rating E1#6 E2=4 L1=7 L2=5 results were 5-1-7-6

the #1 picked as L1 by the current EL runs 2nd at 5/2
POR was same

Fourth race

Current EL E1=#8 E2=#4 L1=#7 L2=#5
adg sp E1=8 E2=5 L1=7 L2=6 results 6-4-2-7

adj sp had #6 as L2 #6 won at 5-1
POR was same


Fifth race

Current EL E1=1 E2=5 L1=2 L2=6
adj sp E1=4 E2=5 L1=6 L2=2 results 2-3-5-4
POR was different for 2nd time in 5 races

6th race not playable

7th race

current EL E1=3 E2=7 L1=1 L2=6
adj sp E1=7 E2=5 L1=1 L2=6 results 7-2-1-4

POR was different again with the #7 winning at 3/1 also #1 was picked as monster by EL but only normal L1 with adj sp

8th race
3 first time starters but figured anyway just to see numbers

current EL E1=8 E2=9 L1=2 L2=5
adj sp E1=9 E2=8 L1=5 L2=2 results 5-9-3-2

POR different

9th race

current EL E1=2 E2=6 L1=10 L2=5
adj sp E1=5 E2=2 L1=10 L2=1 results 5-10-6-1

POR different
current EL had #6 as E2 ran third at 15-1
adj sp has the #1 as L2 ran 4th at 15-1

10th race

current EL E1=7 E2=4 L1=5 L2=3
adj sp E1=7 E2=4 L1=5 L2=3 results 5-4-3-1

POR same
first time both programs picked same horses

Conclusions: Doing pencil and paper was grueling, I was whipped. Took me back to the day in the 70's when we did everything with a racing form and a pencil.
Anybody who thinks those were the good ole days, think again. I think I would take up bowling and forget picking horses. Back to the business at hand I will say that
on the low side for the E's and the L's the lows seemed too low with the adj. sp rating and for my part I think it made it harder to handicap.
Maybe that would change with more experience. Sorry this is so long an email. I have attached the EL Ted posted with notes and scribbling for your visual viewing pleasure.
This has been Dave Milks registered member name 'botc' coming to you from Roanoke, Texas. Oh, and by the way for my part RDSS is the best program anywhere any time.
My only regret is I never meet Doc or Hat but I feel like they are family. That said, thank God for Ted and his efforts on our behalf.

[Ted Craven]

Dave,

Thanks for posting this review! Your screen images are WAY too large and I will try to shrink them for you so they're a more normal size (done!). In future you can try saving to PNG format as we discussed and I think they'll work out nicely.

No worries! Your work with the Adjusted SR makes me eager to move on to the other bases for ratings, (Adj SR, Total Energy, Perceptor) to see how they compare to this initial work.

Good luck with your work on NewPace and everything else with RDSS!

cheers,

Ted

[SilentRun]

Yes, manual calculation is a pain but I find it is easier by using Excel with formulars (attached below). This presumes you have Excel or a similiar spreadsheet product.

The total formulas for each contender is cut off. The complete formular for the first line #4 is: =SUM(C4*100+D4*60)+E4*40+F4*25).
As you can see for each contender the only variable is the line number.

1. The factors are still manually calculated but using the Call 1 points calulator
and Real Running Style sheets reduces the time. These are available with the
NP seminar download or CD.

2. Then the formulas kick in for the totals and percent which avoids a significant part of the manual calculations.

3. Then back to manual entries for the ranks, early, reg speeds and final EE/LL

Hope this helps.

Ernie

[Eddybugsy]

and it is too time consuming...
File should be attached

[Eddybugsy]

I also use the adj SR

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by Eddybugsy

it is too time consuming...
File should be attached

Your formulas will take care of the totals and percentages but I would eliminate the low high speed columns from the factors section.

You can also remove the high speed column from the Late Speed Sort.
You only need the low speed.

If you use the Call 1 points sheet Calculator and the Real Running Style
sheets you would save manual steps doing the factors.

Yes, it still takes some time but until 2.0 becomes available I find it is worth while to use it selectively.

Ernie

[Dave Schwartz]

I had a conversation the other day with a player who uses a spreadsheet with NewPace. He says that he now has it down to under 6 minutes per race.

Said that when he started it was taking him 15 minutes or more.

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I had a conversation the other day with a player who uses a spreadsheet with NewPace. He says that he now has it down to under 6 minutes per race.

Said that when he started it was taking him 15 minutes or more.

That is right....the more races you do it is amazing how fast you can process them. Currently I am down to about 10 minutes per race for fields 8 or higher.
Under 10 minutes for shorter fields. But of course I am looking forward to using the fully automated version.

Ernie

[raceman5]

to doing manual entry very tedious you can really do onl 1 track after that the brain is mush.

Bob

[Dave Schwartz]

Actually, you get faster... much faster.

In the very late '80s, I was playing full time. I was in a Reno racebook every morning at 6:30am, getting ready for first post, which was like 9am (NYRA). I came home at 10:30 every night after LGA finished.

In between I made feet-per-second ratings using a calculator and wrote them by hand, one race to a page. Each race had 23 factors that I modeled. I literally played every non-maiden race at about 15 tracks.

When I switched to "point ratings" rather than velocity numbers my work load diminished greatly.

My point is, that I could do speed ratings by hand, every line for every horse in about 4-5 minutes. You just get faster and faster with practice.


Dave