How do you evaluate a turf line for a dirt race.

[bpawlik]

Delta began their meet and there are a number of races where a horse's last several races have been turf affairs. I can go back to previous dirt races but often they are very old races. If I use the turf race, and it's a good one, it often puts the horse at the top. Sometimes it wins and sometimes it doesn't. Does anyone have any thoughts? i'd prefer to stick to similar racing surfaces but sometimes I don't have a choice.

[Seven Furlongs]

That's a question I struggle with myself. I don't have any hard set rules as I am admittedly still a neophyte, but I usually consider form and class to determine if Turf ability is transferable or not. Also, check if the horse has had some workouts on the new/switched surface and see if it likes it.

If there are too many horses under similar circumstances in the same race, I'd probably just pass the race as there are too many unknowns to reconcile.

Just my 2 cents.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by bpawlik

Delta began their meet and there are a number of races where a horse's last several races have been turf affairs. I can go back to previous dirt races but often they are very old races. If I use the turf race, and it's a good one, it often puts the horse at the top. Sometimes it wins and sometimes it doesn't. Does anyone have any thoughts? i'd prefer to stick to similar racing surfaces but sometimes I don't have a choice.

Sure you have a choice!

1 - if all the recent lines are turf and today's surface is dirt...don't use the horse. You don't have to pick a line for EVERY horse in the race.

2 - then there is always my favorite...PASS THE RACE if there are too many horses like this in the race.

If you get in the habit of using turf lines on dirt, dirt lines on turf, sprint lines in routes or route lines in sprints, you might as well throw darts at the racing form.
Keep the lines you use recent and similar. If there are too many horses in the race where you can't get the lines you need, pass the race. There is another race coming right up!

[Bill Lyster]

Another way to look at these races is to Match up the dirt to dirt, turf to turf and poly to poly, assuming enough lines exist to make such comparisons.

It does not work all the time, but if the analysis points at a big enough price its worth the effort.

This is the same thing you would do if confronted with say half sprinters and half routers on dirt or poly. Take the best sprinters in the group and the best routers in the group and then let the program tell you who is likely to be the best.

If you cannot support a decent price horse then pass the race. there will be another one in a few minutes.


Bill

[alydar_ David]

"When in doubt, pass" is certainly reasonable.

On the other hand these situations can be lucrative.

This is not for novices, but ask yourself some questions:

• Is the horse trying turf for the first time? If so, how is his balance? Does he have a lot of SP? Or, if he's going turf to dirt how are his early pace ratings?
  
• Some trainers excel at first time turf. Some are terrific at dirt to turf or vice versa. It's worth the extra time to check the stats. If the pace ratings are solid and the connections look good you may be able to make a nice score.

But I repeat, "When in doubt, pass."

[For The Lead]

If someone approached me asking for a needle, I would never point them to a haystack and tell them "there's one over there in that haystack".

Instead, I would tell them where there is a store that sells every kind of needle known to man and that I am sure they could find the needle they were looking for there.

Naturally, the "needle" in that scenario represents a "winner". The "haystack" represents every, let me say, "unusual" way to try and find a winner.

I have always found that staying with "the basics" leads to the most winners. Yes, even those larger payoffs everyone so desperately searches for. They're there. All you have to do is wait for them. There is no need to dive into the haystack.

[alydar_ David]

"There are none so blind as those who will not see."

Take a look at the ninth race at KEE on Friday. Every horse has raced on the turf except one.

Here are the trainers' turf win percentages and ROIs:


#2 In Step 20% $2.04
#4 Bizzy Caroline 16% $1.86
#5 Holidaysatthefarm 21% $1.82
#6 Safe Crossing 14% $1.26
#8 Maid of Heaven 19% $2.42
#9 Dynamic Holiday 18% $1.81
#11 Daisy Devine 16% $3.06 First time turf
#12 Pinch Pie 25% $1.79
#13 Barbies M 12% $1.93
#14 Christmas Cove 17% $1.87


Regardless of pacelines wouldn't this first time turfer be worth a look? Or, even a small win bet at good odds? Or perhaps a $2 flyer?

I bet him and another horse (which one doesn't matter for the point of this discussion) to win splitting my bet 50%/50%.

These and similar nuggets appear often enough to pay attention.

However, if you're wearing blinkers and are stuck in a dogmatic paceline selection as your only method of play you'll never cash these tickets.

Be creative. Be flexible. Allow yourself to expand your horizons. You're only limited by what *you* set as your constraints and limitations.

How many times have you had that feeling that something was going to happen and you ignored that feeling? And then it came in. And you knew it was going to come in. And you tell your friends that as you're tearing up your tickets.

I'm not advocating trainer statistics. Nor am I pooh-poohing a solid contender/paceline approach. What I am suggesting is you let yourself win any way you can.

[barb craven]

[chris]

Nothing like a winning ticket to reinforce a great call. Best to both of you; two exceptional handicappers who go beyond the usual. As you've demonstrated, putting money on the line is a world apart from posting Picks.

Regards,
chris

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by barb craven

Attachment 24383

way to go barb!!!!