The Big A - Sunday 11/6 - TM 100 Race Class

[Seven Furlongs]

So it was the 2 eh?

Also, that pace for the first 2 calls was much quicker than I anticipated. Am I wrong to suppose the ground is firmer and thereby possibly faster now?

[For The Lead]

Disclaimer: I DID NOT PLAY THE RACE, so I am just presenting this as a post race review. Anyone who has read my posts regarding how I choose horses for contenders will recognize that I am not choosing any differently here. This IS NOT an attempt at a red board.

OK, so here how I see the race.

#1 - nothing wrong with line 1 from 22 days ago, no reason to go back
#2 - nothing wrong with line 1 from 24 days ago, no reason to go back
#3 - no line, only route races are turf
#4 - nothing wrong with line 1 from 27 days ago, no reason to go back
#5 - no line, no useable line in last 90 days
#6 - no line, last route race was during the Civil War
#7 - nothing wrong with line 1 from 24 days ago, no reason to go back
#8 - no line, no useable line in last 90 days
#9 - no line, last 2 line are horrible, no reason to go back

Ok, so I have the 1,2,4,7
Class does not seem to be a factor with the 1,2,7
Class IS a factor with the #4 and although it does have the highest TE, by far, cheaper horses moving up like this tend to lose that advantage when meeting better horses, so I'll take that with a grain of salt and will not make any adjustments.

The interesting thing here is this, ENERGY does not pick the horses to bet based on final time, TE or the like. Rather, it picks the logical horses based on a match up. ( Ted, if this in incorrect in any way, please jump in with the necessary correction) For that reason it has deemed that the best horses in this match up are the S/P Pressers, 7 and 4. You will see that these two horses are the #1 and #2 ranked horses in the SP column as well as in the PR column. HOWEVER......

If you look at the 5th snapshot "EXDC MATCH-UP", the #2 horse "owns" the first two fractions. Now this generally mean that this horse is expected to make the lead and keep the lead, which is contrary to what the program "picks". In addition, when a horse "owns" the first two fractions, it is time to take the rubber band off the bankroll !!!

It is interesting to note, although the #2 horse did win the race, it did not go wire to wire or anything close to that. It closed!

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

conditions of this race:

For 3 YO and up that have not won 3 races (but races entered for $20,000 or less not considered)

OR

3 YO that have not won in 6 months (not counting races entered for $20,000 or less)

Hello Bill,

Here is a condition from PEN.

Race 8 - 8:53 PM Exacta / Trifecta /1st Half of Late Double
CLAIMING $4,000
Purse $11,000. (plus Up To 40% Pabf) For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Not Won A Race Since May 4. Three Year Olds, 121 Lbs.; Older, 122 Lbs. Claiming Price $4,000 (Races Where Entered For $3,500 Or Less Not Considered In Eligibility). One Mile

This condition will appear in the PP's when next these horses run as "NW16NX" with the "X" meaning there was a "sub-condition", which is the "races where entered for $3,500 or less not considered."

I have attached the condition for this race as it appears in the CHART. You will see there is a "(C)" after it states "for 3 year olds and up. This is how the condition will appear in the PP's when next these horses run.

Tracks all over the country have been running these types of races most of the year. For an example I have seen conditions where 3 year olds can get in even if the have 6 wins, but older horses are limited to "Never won 3 races" or variations on that theme. Racing secretaries are getting crazy with conditions.

In the PEN condition, it stated clear enough that races where entered for $3,500 do not count in ELIGIBILITY. However, in this race, it doesn't say that. I believe that the races for 20k or less are not being considered in the "WEIGHTS", so there is no weight penalty if the races were 20k or less.

[Bill Lyster]

Thanks, I kinda got lost in my original post. I was trying to determine if any one horse was helped or hurt by the conditions. I did not see any obvious horse either way, was just leery of a couple that had raced above 25K.

Just curious, how would they show that race from FL where it was restricted to "3yo" TRAINERS that had not won at the meet?

Bill

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Thanks, I kinda got lost in my original post. I was trying to determine if any one horse was helped or hurt by the conditions. I did not see any obvious horse either way, was just leery of a couple that had raced above 25K.

Just curious, how would they show that race from FL where it was restricted to "3yo" TRAINERS that had not won at the meet?

Bill

Bill..we wont know for sure till the horses are entered again and then look at the PP's

FTL gave us this...This condition will appear in the PP's when next these horses run as "NW16NX" with the "X" meaning there was a "sub-condition"

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Thanks, I kinda got lost in my original post. I was trying to determine if any one horse was helped or hurt by the conditions. I did not see any obvious horse either way, was just leery of a couple that had raced above 25K.

Just curious, how would they show that race from FL where it was restricted to "3yo" TRAINERS that had not won at the meet?

Bill

lol.....I have no idea. I have never seen that condition in my life!

But here is another condition that is similar to the one being discussed.

Laurel Park - November 5, 2011
Race 2 - 1:08 PM EXACTA & TRIFECTA / 2nd HALF OF THE DAILY DOUBLE 50 cent PICK 4 (RACES 2-3-4-5)
CLAIMING $15,000 – $12,000
Purse $19,000. For Fillies Three Years Old Or Fillies And Mares Four Years Old And Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races. Three Year Olds, 122 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. Non-winners of two races since September 5 Allowed 2 Lbs. A race since then Allowed 4 Lbs. Claiming Price $15,000, For Each $1,500 To $12,000 2 Lbs. (Races where entered for $11,500 or less not considered in allowances). Five And One Half

This one starts with "for three year old fillies" (no restriction on them as to number of wins), then it says "OR four year old and up fillies which have never won three races", so there IS a restriction on them. These are the type of conditions that show up in the PP's as a "C" and nothing else to explain, so you just have to know/understand. All of these "C" conditions place no restriction on the three year olds, but DO place a restriction on the older horses. This is their way of leveling the playing field, since three year olds are at somewhat of a disadvantage because of age, at least early in the year. At this late date in the year, I think the 3 year olds have caught up.

Again in this condition, it says "(Races where entered for $11,500 or less not considered in allowances) so I believe this is a reference to the "weights", not the number of wins.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Bill..we wont know till the horses are entered again and then look at the PP's

You're right!