Which ONE piece of historical data ...

[gl45]

"If PP's, video replays, the ability to watch races, etc didn't exist, which ONE piece of historical data would you like to have associated with each horse?

Give this serious thought, because this should be your starting point."

not my quote but still scratching my head

[game2wire]

Originally Posted by gl45

"If PP's, video replays, the ability to watch races, etc didn't exist, which ONE piece of historical data would you like to have associated with each horse?

Give this serious thought, because this should be your starting point."

not my quote but still scratching my head

I am a newbie to the forum but been handicapping for 20 years. For my money condition eligibility is most useful. I play the condition book looking for extras that seem to be written for one or two trainers or horses. If you know who the sharp agents are and who rides first call, you can figure that the sharp agent and the trainer have already handicapped the race for you. If an agent has 2 jocks sometimes he will use both to hustle a race for one. Look at Penn National 5th for 11/29 (I know Penn Nat is not very popular, but I know the agents from training there)

5th Race. (CX3) Post 7:38PM ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000
Purse $34,000 (PLUS UP TO 40% PA BRED BONUS) 1 Mile 70 Yards
For Three Year Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races Other
Than Maiden, Claiming, Starter, Or Pennsylvania Bred or Claiming Price
$25,000.
1 TAR BEACH(BO) (L) R313 Synnefias, D Montanez, R 116
2 DANCIN' DIXIE CAT(M) (L) R306 Salvaggio, Jr., E Flores, E 116
3 EXXEL(B) (L) E305 Rogers, J Ramirez, J 116
4 LAC VALENTINE(M) (L) $25,000 R322 Graci, K Belmonte, L 116
5 SMALLTOWNMANd(B) (L) Neilson, W Acksel, J 116
6 MONEYMONEYMONEY(N) (L) Lerman, M Vaz, E 119

This race was in the book for 11/26 and did not fill and today it goes with six head. Knowing that Salvaggio is live and his brother has the book for Emilio Flores and is a very sharp agent I would look at the 2 for running a big race.
With my homemade program I run the pace lines (Brohamer based)

Weighting Factors 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
PP Name SAt1 S1-2 Sat2 SAT12 s2-3 FPS3 FPS4 PctE SCORE
1 TAR BEACH 45.11 -0.48 64.96 87.32 2.65 53.22 49.92 47.16 4.98
2 DANCIN DIXIE CAT*100.0 *0.14 0.00 *100.0 *3.20 52.78 *51.18 0.00 4.59
3 EXXEL ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? 10.0
4 LAC VALENTINE 0.00 -1.80 *100.0 0.00 -0.42 54.06 50.95 *100.0 5.20
5 SMALLTOWNMAN 21.29 -2.19 43.76 35.53 1.37 53.61 50.77 67.99 5.48
6 MONEYMONEYMONEY 62.24 -1.25 28.23 62.18 1.25 *54.18 50.80 62.96 4.76

PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
2 DANCIN DIXIE CAT 4.5 FLORES E. SALVAGGIO JR. M. W
6 MONEYMONEYMONEY 3.5 VAZ E. LERMAN M.
1 TAR BEACH 2.5 MONTANEZ R. SYNNEFIAS D. K.
4 LAC VALENTINE 8.0 BELMONTE L. A. GRACI K. A.
5 SMALLTOWNMAN 4.0 ACKSEL J. NEILSON W. C.
3 EXXEL 3.0 RAMIREZ J. G. ROGERS J. M.


Based on my data and knowing Marty Salvaggio is a great agent. the 2 is very live.
Just my thoughts any reply is welcome. Thanks Kirk

[Ted Craven]

Kirk, I would concur with your assessment of #2 Dancing Dixie. Whether there is a price to bet on is a separate issue.



Not taking anything away from your detailed local knowledge of trainers, jockeys and their agents, the foregoing analysis of mine was done without reference to those data. I have no doubt that these can be excellent corollary data - but, as Doc Sartin often opined, there can be a lot of redundancy built in to many data and the very presence of so much info to look at can frequently confuse as much as clarify a given race analysis. And there's a reason why Sartin programs of the past 15 years have been fairly sparse on jockey, trainer (and pedigree) data - they're mostly redundant to other data centred around the performance of the horse itself.

I do agree with you wholeheartedly that race conditions are extremely important to understand: who is this race carded for, who almost fails to draw in because they are over qualified. And I believe there is often a collaboration between racing secretaries and trainers to come up with races to showcase certain horses, if not certain barns. Bet then again, the horse sometimes surprises its trainer (for better or for worse).

I would never want to do without understanding the race conditions, but I can't imagine working this game with just one data item.

Ted

[game2wire]

Good point Ted,
To clear up my last post, I should be more specific. I am talking about extra races, especially late extras. I really does not matter on the locale, it goes with understanding the population of horses available for carding of the race. It is about understanding the class of the horseflesh for secretaries to use.

We all know that claiming price is not unilateral between tracks. So lets you have a nice 25k optional claiming type. Horse is still eligible for N3X. Would we agree that if the horse is based at say Parx a N3X at Parx would probably be salty but would probably have enough horses to draw from based on locale. A N3X would probably not go at Penn or Laurel without some help of a sharp agent or a top barn. If the horse can run for a tag a ON2x would be a better option and would probably have a chance of being carded. As the trainer I would be combing the overnights and finally find one at Penn. I put an entry to make sure the race has a chance to fill and try to find the right agent and jock to get that little extra pull as a good agent can hustle a race.

Now I know this is a perfect world scenario I described above, it happens and knowing the class of the flesh available for the secretary to use and what kind of horse goes into the race can often make elimination easy. Sometimes a 4th place finish in a field of 6 is better than sitting in the barn or working the horse meaning that trainers do favors for secs by filling races for a little purse money.
Gambling on the ideas above should be used with care and with complete understanding of the hierarchy of agents and jocks of the meet that you intend to follow but it can yield big dividends. Keeping track of horses by condition eligibility is tedious. I try to lessen the load by sticking to 10k horses n2l and above and made a workbook that is based on the condition book index with notes and link to equibase.
While I am first and foremost a handicapper, thinking in pure economic means I feel IMHO running the horse to maximize profit per condition can yield an effective way to eliminate non- contenders and find nice spot plays.
Just a thought and agree that handicapping without proper data would be very tough.
How about a old timers contest. No data allowed with only overnights and scratch sheets. It really makes me appreciate what Doc did for us.
Have a feeling that the 2 at Penn might go off second choice to the 1. When Penn is sloppy, inside speed going routes have a big advantage in the first turn and will often carry outside speed wide for tactical advantage. Thanks for the reply
Kirk

[gl45]

two good opinions yet different
My starting point, if only one piece of historical data was to be used, would be the trainer, and from there on...............build up

[SilentRun]

The one piece of historical data I would want is the SPEED #'s.

Ernie

[RonP]

I'll take lifetime running lines. This gives me running style, distance apptitude, form cycles if any, and win loss record at first glance. I hate to forfeit class, but class has beat me to many times.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by SilentRun

The one piece of historical data I would want is the SPEED #'s.

Ernie

"WHICH" speed numbers, early, middle, late, final?

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

"WHICH" speed numbers, early, middle, late, final?

Specifically I would want to know how fast the horse ran over the entire route.
For example: Take a 5F race and a horse runs the distance in 1 minute.
I would like to know the feet per sec # or a speed rating # associated with :

3300 / 60 = 55 fps.

I would also like to know how fast the horse ran in the final fraction.

Ernie

[For The Lead]

I'm glad the question was framed as "historical" data.
Without question, the one piece of historical data that produces the most winners is final time, both in sprints as well as routes. Unfortunately, we all know that those winners also produce the lowest average win prices. So, my request would be in two parts although it is still "one thing".

Best first fraction in sprints/Best 2nd call in routes.

Both produce a "slightly" lower amount of winners than best final time.
Both produce a "considerably" higher average win price than final time.