Anaylize This - Page 13 - Pace and Cap

Rxlawyer · 05-02-2006, 09:21 PM

Jeff: Here is my BL-BL screen. Would make me very nervous if I was betting the 7 to win. I expect 7 and 8 to go out early and hurt each other. 7 will probably put 8 away on backstretch. I expect a closer going into the turn to win the race. Who might that be? Looks like the #5 or possibly the #4. I think #7 will tire and be no better than second. Gary

RichieP · 05-02-2006, 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rxlawyer

Jeff and Richie:

I am wondering why both of you think the 1 Finest is a non-contender. I am just starting the race and the horse seems like it deserves a paceline to me. I have projected the race times to be 23.8 48.0 and 122.4. The horse may be injured, but it should influence the race at least early. Any comments?

Gary

Hi Gary
I throw all shippers out at the bullring. If that 1 would have had a race at Delta down there in the Bayou and been competitive I woulda kept him.

This Ct track is new to me so I don't know. Just going by instinct.

Both you and Jeff have mad knowledge of this joint. Plenty of prices I see here at this track. Thats why I have started milling around a bit Gary

Rich

shoeless · 05-02-2006, 10:31 PM

Gary,The horse was claimed on Dec 30 for 10,000 and the trainer ran him once for 12,500 in Feb and hasnt raced since.Now he is running for 4,000 and to me that's a throwout also take in consideration the jockey is horrible only 1 for 23.The 7 could improve getting the services of Gerald Almodovar is who has been riding lights out.I was looking at the 4&7 as the two to bet.Thanks for that complete rundown of the race using Spec.You and Richie have helped to shed some light on this ongoing problem I have of being able to further weed out horses.Jeff

shoeless · 05-03-2006, 07:06 AM

Richie and Gary after you finish putting in the pacelines and then go over the race what are you looking for to pre determine if you are going to bet the race or not.Or are you just looking for value and wait until you see what the odds are.I just restrict myself to sprints races and with claimers because that's what I feel comfortable with.But I know both of you basically look at all of the races that's why Im asking if you know in advance what races you will focus on.Anyone else feel free to chime in as well no matter what program you are using.Jeff

Rxlawyer · 05-03-2006, 07:19 AM

Jeff and Richie:

Thank you for your answers regarding the #1 at CT, 5/4/06, R6. I believe that good handicappers take a position on an issue and then stand by it. I think it is always a good idea to throw out shippers from most tracks at CT. They are usually on their last leg, especially when they have recently been claimed. I did throw the #1 out after I looked at the Energy screen in Spec. The horse is the obvious class of the field. To be running at CT the horse must be hurt.

Jeff, I am glad to hear that you stick with races where you are comfortable. You will gather more winners that way. I never pre-select my racesor pre-determine which ones to bet. I always look at as many races as possible. You never know where or when you will see a horse with some sort of advantage that is not readily obvious to the betting public. Ct is a perfect example. There are a lot of nice prices at CT. I also look for races where there are a lot of entries. That generally confuses the public. Remember, we are betting against the public.

Finally, Richie, always follow your instinct. That is what handicapping is all about.

Gary

shoeless · 05-03-2006, 08:28 PM

Gary,But wont you know before what races you will be betting the most money on or do you play it by ear.Jeff

shoeless · 05-03-2006, 08:49 PM

This is the 10th tomorrow at CT and I could only come up with 3 horses as contenders.If somebody wants to work it up with another program I would be interested to see what you come up with.From my readouts it comes down to if Manor can hold off Sassy or not,I think she can.

shoeless · 05-03-2006, 08:49 PM

here is 2nd screen

shoeless · 05-03-2006, 08:50 PM

the last one

Rxlawyer · 05-03-2006, 09:39 PM

Jeff: The answer is neither. I bet with a bankroll and bet the same percentage of bankroll on each race. Gary

05-02-2006, 09:21 PM	#121
Rxlawyer Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 212	Jeff: Here is my BL-BL screen. Would make me very nervous if I was betting the 7 to win. I expect 7 and 8 to go out early and hurt each other. 7 will probably put 8 away on backstretch. I expect a closer going into the turn to win the race. Who might that be? Looks like the #5 or possibly the #4. I think #7 will tire and be no better than second. Gary Attached Images

05-03-2006, 07:19 AM	#125
Rxlawyer Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 212	Jeff and Richie: Thank you for your answers regarding the #1 at CT, 5/4/06, R6. I believe that good handicappers take a position on an issue and then stand by it. I think it is always a good idea to throw out shippers from most tracks at CT. They are usually on their last leg, especially when they have recently been claimed. I did throw the #1 out after I looked at the Energy screen in Spec. The horse is the obvious class of the field. To be running at CT the horse must be hurt. Jeff, I am glad to hear that you stick with races where you are comfortable. You will gather more winners that way. I never pre-select my racesor pre-determine which ones to bet. I always look at as many races as possible. You never know where or when you will see a horse with some sort of advantage that is not readily obvious to the betting public. Ct is a perfect example. There are a lot of nice prices at CT. I also look for races where there are a lot of entries. That generally confuses the public. Remember, we are betting against the public. Finally, Richie, always follow your instinct. That is what handicapping is all about. Gary Last edited by Rxlawyer; 05-03-2006 at 07:23 AM.

05-03-2006, 08:49 PM	#127
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,646	This is the 10th tomorrow at CT and I could only come up with 3 horses as contenders.If somebody wants to work it up with another program I would be interested to see what you come up with.From my readouts it comes down to if Manor can hold off Sassy or not,I think she can. Attached Images

05-03-2006, 08:49 PM	#128
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,646	here is 2nd screen Attached Images

05-03-2006, 08:50 PM	#129
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,646	the last one Attached Images

05-02-2006, 10:31 PM	#123
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,646	Gary,The horse was claimed on Dec 30 for 10,000 and the trainer ran him once for 12,500 in Feb and hasnt raced since.Now he is running for 4,000 and to me that's a throwout also take in consideration the jockey is horrible only 1 for 23.The 7 could improve getting the services of Gerald Almodovar is who has been riding lights out.I was looking at the 4&7 as the two to bet.Thanks for that complete rundown of the race using Spec.You and Richie have helped to shed some light on this ongoing problem I have of being able to further weed out horses.Jeff

05-03-2006, 07:06 AM	#124
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,646	Richie and Gary after you finish putting in the pacelines and then go over the race what are you looking for to pre determine if you are going to bet the race or not.Or are you just looking for value and wait until you see what the odds are.I just restrict myself to sprints races and with claimers because that's what I feel comfortable with.But I know both of you basically look at all of the races that's why Im asking if you know in advance what races you will focus on.Anyone else feel free to chime in as well no matter what program you are using.Jeff

05-03-2006, 08:28 PM	#126
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,646	Gary,But wont you know before what races you will be betting the most money on or do you play it by ear.Jeff

05-03-2006, 09:39 PM	#130
Rxlawyer Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 212	Jeff: The answer is neither. I bet with a bankroll and bet the same percentage of bankroll on each race. Gary