Pktruckdriver Octubre Selecciones

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hello Patrick

You missed this race. The winner # 1 did not show
much more than this horse . but I have 2 questions

First what was it that you liked about this horse enough to
bet $50 to win?
Secondly, a few post back you said trust RDSS and the readouts
in that case would you say its highly unusual for a sprinter
to over come being 2O BL back at the first call?
look at the segments readouts
Does anybody track how far back at the 1st call their winners come from
in 6.0 sprints ?

Attachment 30942




Attachment 30943

Hey Bill, no I do not, but the segement screen clearly puts the 4 horse on top, and wiith the 8 length close in the last race and 77 SR, make it a play for me, you??


Sorry Bill I do hope I did not come off as being upset or annoyed, I am not , your help AND QUESTIIONS ARE ALWAYS WELCOMED AND ENJOYED

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

Ted I am thinking about this and was wondering to myuself before this race was run if I should have bet my plays as place wagers due to the higher odds, why because I truly felt that my picks were more likely place wagers, or a 2nd and 3rd place horse, otherwise filling in the exotics.

I notice that when you make your screen shots you have it split into contenders and non-contenders, which basically means who can win and who will not , I don't do that , I hide non-contenders instead of keeping them on screen.

Should reconsider this?

Patrick,

You should reduce the horse showing on your Analysis screens to only those which can win the race (i.e. 4 or 5 maximum). This removes the noise from the readouts and most times places the 2 or 3 horses which can actually win in the top ranks of whatever readout you favour, but especially the BL/BL screen.

If you intend to bet an exacta or a place bet including horses you believe will NOT win but can finish in the money, your choice is to either remove them completely from the Analysis screens then find a way to not forget about them - OR, group them as Secondary Contenders so they appear in front of your eyes in a different grouping. The remaining horses in the upper Primary group are the 4 or 5 you believe can actually win and are ranked only among themselves.

Try this for 20 races and see if it gives you greater clarity. Don't forget about the part where, despite the relative rankings of the horses, you determine if they have demonstrated the recent form to actually Win today against the competition; they may not be world beaters, but they only have to beat today's competition. In the above race, you have to admit that some of those horses in your list are really unlikely candidates to Win.

cheers,

Ted

[pktruckdriver]

i MAY BE GOING FOR THE LONGEST LOSING STREAK, OH WELL

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Patrick,

You should reduce the horse showing on your Analysis screens to only those which can win the race (i.e. 4 or 5 maximum). This removes the noise from the readouts and most times places the 2 or 3 horses which can actually win in the top ranks of whatever readout you favour, but especially the BL/BL screen.

If you intend to bet an exacta or a place bet including horses you believe will NOT win but can finish in the money, your choice is to either remove them completely from the Analysis screens then find a way to not forget about them - OR, group them as Secondary Contenders so they appear in front of your eyes in a different grouping. The remaining horses in the upper Primary group are the 4 or 5 you believe can actually win and are ranked only among themselves.

Try this for 20 races and see if it gives you greater clarity. Don't forget about the part where, despite the relative rankings of the horses, you determine if they have demonstrated the recent form to actually Win today against the competition; they may not be world beaters, but they only have to beat today's competition. In the above race, you have to admit that some of those horses in your list are really unlikely candidates to Win.

cheers,

Ted

Yes, I will finish this cycle (not quick enough, lol) and try your suggestion , and you mark secondary contender on the horse screen shot, correct?

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

and you mark secondary contender on the horse screen shot, correct?

Mark a horse as Secondary either in the horse header (the Contender? Win or ITM checkboxes) OR by right-clicking the checkbox on a horse's paceline, either in its PPs or in the Analysis section. You can also mark a horse a Non-contender by removing any checkmark from the horse header Contender boxes.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

50 win 4 and 12

screens later

Patrick,

Keenland Race 4 for 2 YOs had 3 First Time Starters, and the rest had 1 or 2 lines (one had 3 lines). Using an energy-oriented program like RDSS, you have VERY little info to go on in races like this - and the 3 FTS represent at least some kind of a risk of an unknown popping up (which the #6 did at $71.20). When using RDSS, I recommend NOT playing races with more than 2 FTS (unless you have to: Contest, horizontal bet) and being extra careful with a group of very lightly races 2 YO Maidens. You may indeed win a few of these races at good prices, but be prepared to lose a high percentage of them.

Why not consider picking a distance and surface (say, short routes, dirt; or medium sprints), and specializing in those until you can get the winner in your top 5 of that specialty 90% of the time. Don't just accept the automatic numbers blindly: hone your skill at identifying (at least a lot of the time) if a horse can Win the race or finish close, then include ONLY those horses among your Top 5 BLBL.

You are welcomed to send me the RDSS export spreadsheet of your next 20 races and I'll be happy to comment, if you like.

Ted

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Patrick,

Keenland Race 4 for 2 YOs had 3 First Time Starters, and the rest had 1 or 2 lines (one had 3 lines). Using an energy-oriented program like RDSS, you have VERY little info to go on in races like this - and the 3 FTS represent at least some kind of a risk of an unknown popping up (which the #6 did at $71.20). When using RDSS, I recommend NOT playing races with more than 2 FTS (unless you have to: Contest, horizontal bet) and being extra careful with a group of very lightly races 2 YO Maidens. You may indeed win a few of these races at good prices, but be prepared to lose a high percentage of them.

Why not consider picking a distance and surface (say, short routes, dirt; or medium sprints), and specializing in those until you can get the winner in your top 5 of that specialty 90% of the time. Don't just accept the automatic numbers blindly: hone your skill at identifying (at least a lot of the time) if a horse can Win the race or finish close, then include ONLY those horses among your Top 5 BLBL.

You are welcomed to send me the RDSS export spreadsheet of your next 20 races and I'll be happy to comment, if you like.

Ted

Okay, will do this soon, let me do 1 more race and be gone today, thank you for your help, sorry for me losing like this, but I am not discouraged, why should I , I am a winner and will win plenty again soon!!!

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

Hey Bill, no I do not, but the segement screen clearly puts the 4 horse on top, and wiith the 8 length close in the last race and 77 SR, make it a play for me, you?? Sorry Bill I do hope I did not come off as being upset or annoyed, I am not , your help AND QUESTIIONS ARE ALWAYS WELCOMED AND ENJOYED

Thanks Patrick
Its you guys who should get the thanks for you honest open thoughts
to my questions .

Now about horse 4 No I would not use this horse
Yes the last line is a 77 SR and it did close 8 BL
but Is this line indicitive of the horses ability No
Did you use this pace line, No

I have reposted the pps with the adjusted lines and the original lines
Something Doc writes about to do when looking at sprint and route lines.
Lets look at that 8 gain , The horse was beaten 16 in the stretch
it closed to 8, This is good ? or because the horse just loped around
in the route distance.

Lets look at the usual adjusted position and BL for this horse
in all its sprint races. See how far back it is at all it stretch calls
what makes today any different?

I see a poor apv and CR horse with only 1 plus race win long ago
I see no reason to use this horse
Just my opinion

[pktruckdriver]

50 win 1 and 2

[pktruckdriver]

Lost Again, no more torture today, lol